The 32Red Tolworth (Novice) Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 4th January and is usually the first grade 1 race, run in Great Britain, of the New Year. The race was abandoned in 2009 & 2010 and has been rescheduled to other tracks (Wincanton, Warwick and Ascot) in the past 10 years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2002 to 2013):
No strong trends on ages, all 10 winners have been aged 5 to 7 though they have represented almost 90% of the total runners.
All 4 female runners (0-0-4) to take part in this in past 10 runnings have finished unplaced.
Irish bred: 5-4-30
French bred: 2-4-16
GB bred: 2-4-18
German bred: 1-0-3
USA bred: 0-1-2
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (7 won)
10 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR of 120+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
10 of 10 winners had won one of their last 2 races
8 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 hurdles races (1 exception won maiden hurdle on only previous hurdles run and other ran 11 times)
10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all completed hurdles starts
Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won a graded hurdle
7 of last 8 winners had won just one previous hurdles race
British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Ballyalton): 3131 (2-2-4)
Tony Jones 60th Birthday Bash Maiden Hurdle winner (Josses Hill): 126 (1-1-3)
Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Irving): 5F12 (1-1-4)
Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (The Liquidator): 1 (1-0-1)
Robert Giles Agencies Introductory Hurdle winner (Irving): 42 (0-1-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in Bet365 Novice Hurdle at Newbury, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kennel Gate last time out, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in John Smith's Champion Bumper, finishing 56
3 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners won a class 6 Wincanton bumper in Feb/March the previous year
2 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in Dominic Baker Memorial NH Novices' Hurdle at Wincanton in October
Paul Nicholls (4-2-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 4 wins and 2 seconds from his 9 runners in last 10 runnings, including winning 3 of the last 6.
Nicky Henderson (2-0-6) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of this race.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-2) has seen all 4 of runners in this since 2000 finish 2nd or 3rd.
9 of 10 winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter
8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting. The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was 11/1.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of last 10 renewals but show a level stakes loss of 0.25.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7
- Finished in the first 2 last time out in the past 45 days
- Posted highest RPR of 120+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times over hurdles (or won only start)
- Won one or both of last two starts
- Never finished outside the first 4 over hurdles
- Finished in first 2 in Kennel Gate, Bet365 or British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novice Hurdle
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or Philip Hobbs
- Priced 5/1 or lower