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#1 2014-01-01 23:44:43

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
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TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

The 32Red Tolworth (Novice) Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 4th January and is usually the first grade 1 race, run in Great Britain, of the New Year. The race was abandoned in 2009 & 2010 and has been rescheduled to other tracks (Wincanton, Warwick and Ascot) in the past 10 years.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2002 to 2013):

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-4

5yo: 5-5-34

6yo: 3-4-20

7yo: 2-2-8

8yo: 0-1-2

9yo+: 0-0-1

No strong trends on ages, all 10 winners have been aged 5 to 7 though they have represented almost 90% of the total runners.

 

Gender

All 4 female runners (0-0-4) to take part in this in past 10 runnings have finished unplaced.

 

Bred

Irish bred: 5-4-30

French bred: 2-4-16

GB bred: 2-4-18

German bred: 1-0-3

USA bred: 0-1-2

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (7 won)

10 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR of 120+ last time

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days

10 of 10 winners had won one of their last 2 races

8 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 hurdles races (1 exception won maiden hurdle on only previous hurdles run and other ran 11 times)

10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all completed hurdles starts

Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won a graded hurdle

7 of last 8 winners had won just one previous hurdles race

 

Other Races

British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Ballyalton): 3131 (2-2-4)

Tony Jones 60th Birthday Bash Maiden Hurdle winner (Josses Hill): 126 (1-1-3)

Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Irving): 5F12 (1-1-4)

Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (The Liquidator): 1 (1-0-1)

Robert Giles Agencies Introductory Hurdle winner (Irving): 42 (0-1-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in Bet365 Novice Hurdle at Newbury, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Kennel Gate last time out, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in John Smith's Champion Bumper, finishing 56

3 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners won a class 6 Wincanton bumper in Feb/March the previous year

2 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in Dominic Baker Memorial NH Novices' Hurdle at Wincanton in October

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (4-2-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 4 wins and 2 seconds from his 9 runners in last 10 runnings, including winning 3 of the last 6.

Nicky Henderson (2-0-6) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of this race.

Philip Hobbs (0-2-2) has seen all 4 of runners in this since 2000 finish 2nd or 3rd.

 

Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter

8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting. The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was 11/1.

Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of last 10 renewals but show a level stakes loss of 0.25.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7

- Finished in the first 2 last time out in the past 45 days

- Posted highest RPR of 120+ last time out

- Run 2 to 4 times over hurdles (or won only start)

- Won one or both of last two starts

- Never finished outside the first 4 over hurdles

- Finished in first 2 in Kennel Gate, Bet365 or British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novice Hurdle

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or Philip Hobbs

- Priced 5/1 or lower

 

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#2 2014-01-02 10:33:07

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3630

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Good to see Mullins has a few entered in this:

1     P-216    Ashes House16      8    11-7    Rebecca Curtis80         125    87    127
2     2-1114    Ballyalton3      7    11-7    Ian Williams40         140    95    143
3    111-11    Briar Hill20      6    11-7    W P Mullins55         —    119    158
4     21221    Deep Trouble28      7    11-7    Ben Case67         133    122    138
5     111    Irving15      6    11-7    Paul Nicholls66         143    138    153
6     60626    Johnny Og45      5    11-7    Martin Keighley50         —    89    117
7     211    Josses Hill17      6    11-7    Nicky Henderson50         —    124    136
8     1    Mijhaar36      6    11-7    John Ferguson50         —    91    141
9     51F    Prince Siegfried15      8    11-7    John Ferguson50    Denis O'Regan     138    106    147
10     23-31    Royal Boy15    7    11-7    Nicky Henderson50         138    122    142
11     141-11    The Liquidator48      6    11-7    David Pipe15    Tom Scudamore     —    128    150
12     31-111    The Skyfarmer22      6    11-7    Philip Hobbs50         134    128    145
13     1/7-12    Tistory17      7    11-7    Nicky Henderson50         133    125    135
14     275-11    Upazo21      6    11-7    W P Mullins55         151    115    152
15     22-1    Vautour28      5    11-7    W P Mullins55         —    123    147
16     4-1331    Gitane Du Berlais28      4    10-2    W P Mullins55         139    149    156

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#3 2014-01-02 13:23:30

deetee20
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Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Irving looks a nice sort and fact Nicholls just entered the one in a race he's done so well in suggests they fancy him

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#4 2014-01-03 15:11:35

dessie
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Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Is this going to be rescheduled now Sandown is off?

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#5 2014-01-03 15:31:21

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
Posts: 7179

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

dessie wrote:


Is this going to be rescheduled now Sandown is off?
wouldn't believe a word this tosser says but Cooper (clerk of course) said this:


Andrew Cooper @ACooperClerk20h

@ColletteTownroe @muffinmannhc @Sandownpark As a Grade 1 race every effort would made to re-schedule as soon as poss. Hope not necessary.

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#6 2014-01-03 23:34:58

the brigadier
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Posts: 715

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

dessie wrote:


Is this going to be rescheduled now Sandown is off?


Apparently the race will be run at Kempton Park later this month. Entries for the race will be reopened next Tuesday.


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#7 2014-01-07 08:51:03

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
Posts: 7179

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Would not fancy The Liquidator at a track like comfort, can see something faster having him out of his comfort zone after 2 out...


DAVID PIPE is concerned that the rearranged Tolworth Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday will not play to the strengths of his unbeaten hurdler The Liquidator.

Supreme Novice betting 

The Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle has been moved to Kempton this weekend after the loss of Sandown last Saturday due to waterlogging and renamed the williamhill.com Levy Board Tolworth Hurdle after an injection of £20,000 into prize-money from the Levy Board.

However, the contrasting nature of Sandown and Kempton has left Pipe wondering whether the flatter track on Saturday will best suit The Liquidator, who is joint-favourite in places for the Grade 1 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.


"The BHA have done well to rearrange the contest for Kempton this Saturday and should be applauded for doing so, although I am not convinced that the tight nature of the new venue will suit our charge as well as Sandown would have done," Pipe wrote in his blog.


"Still, he is fit and well and will receive another entry in the race when it closes."


The Roger Brookhouse-owned The Liquidator is expected to faceUpazo, representing the goliath Willie Mullins stable.


Mullins said: "The plan is for Upazo to go for the Tolworth and we'll decide about other running plans for Saturday in a couple of days."


The decision to rearrange the Tolworth Hurdle, for which entries close on Tuesday, was taken as it is "an important opportunity" for horses according to Tasha Power, the head of operations at the Levy Board.


She said: "With the recent wet weather it was a shame to lose the Tolworth Hurdle just two months before Cheltenham as it provides an important opportunity. We generally look to support restaging Grade 1 races and therefore the Levy Board has provided £20,000 in prize money."


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#8 2014-01-07 22:01:54

pk75
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Join Date: 2010-02-01
Posts: 18694

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

With Hendersons horses in fine order ( 9 winners 4 seconds and an UR from last 14 runners ) and with the going likely soft/heavy, really starting to fancy the chances of Royal Boy, needed the run first time out, as many henderson horses have done, but was impressive lto and a piece of form when just beaten by Melodic Rendevouz last season stands out. Tho 2mile not his ideal trip, the fact it will be run on such testing ground and at a fair clip with front runners like The Liquidator,Amore Alato & Zamdy Man means it could set the race up for a strong finisher.. (also entered for the Lanzarote so awaiting confirmation of target race)

Last edited by pk75 (2014-01-08 10:21:57)

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#9 2014-01-08 00:56:10

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3630

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

11 left in the rearranged race for Sat:

1     81-411    Amore Alato16      5    11-7    Nick Williams         135    125    144
2     2-121U    Creepy14    6    11-7    Martin Keighley         137    109    146
3     21221    Deep Trouble35      7    11-7    Ben Case         133    122    138
4     1-112    Garde La Victoire29      5    11-7    Philip Hobbs         138    110    142
5     111    Irving22      6    11-7    Paul Nicholls    Nick Scholfield     143    138    153
6     211    Josses Hill24      6    11-7    Nicky Henderson         —    124    136
7     51F    Prince Siegfried22      8    11-7    John Ferguson         138    106    147
8     23-31    Royal Boy22    7    11-7    Nicky Henderson         138    80    142
9     141-11    The Liquidator55      6    11-7    David Pipe         —    128    150
10     275-11    Upazo28      6    11-7    W P Mullins         —    115    152
11     208-11    Zamdy Man50      5    11-7    Venetia Williams         136    118    144

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#10 2014-01-08 01:05:26

gold digger
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Join Date: 2013-03-26
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Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Just wondered Eoinmc, the figures on the right, are they RP ratings, most recent last?

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#11 2014-01-08 01:20:12

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3630

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

gold digger wrote:


Just wondered Eoinmc, the figures on the right, are they RP ratings, most recent last?

Those ratings are how the RP rate each horse's chance in this race based on the weights they run off in this race

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#12 2014-01-08 09:41:24

james99
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Join Date: 2009-09-09
Posts: 560

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Upazo looks very interesting, should give us a good line between the Irish and British novice hurlders

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#13 2014-01-08 18:12:48

thetimelord
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Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

gold digger wrote:


Just wondered Eoinmc, the figures on the right, are they RP ratings, most recent last?


They are three different ratings: OFFICIAL; TOPSPEED; POSTMARK

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#14 2014-01-10 21:58:01

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 373

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Josses Hill for me

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#15 2014-01-11 12:00:36

james99
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Join Date: 2009-09-09
Posts: 560

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

rightjudgeiam wrote:


Josses Hill for me

Me too, Henderson does well in this

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#16 2014-01-11 13:44:09

pk75
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Join Date: 2010-02-01
Posts: 18694

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

pk75 wrote:


With Hendersons horses in fine order ( 9 winners 4 seconds and an UR from last 14 runners ) and with the going likely soft/heavy, really starting to fancy the chances of Royal Boy, needed the run first time out, as many henderson horses have done, but was impressive lto and a piece of form when just beaten by Melodic Rendevouz last season stands out. Tho 2mile not his ideal trip, the fact it will be run on such testing ground and at a fair clip with front runners like The Liquidator,Amore Alato & Zamdy Man means it could set the race up for a strong finisher.. (also entered for the Lanzarote so awaiting confirmation of target race)
0 Got a tasty price on that, great ride by the champ!

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#17 2014-01-11 13:51:46

moconnell
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Join Date: 2008-07-04
Posts: 2368

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

pk75 wrote:


pk75 wrote:


With Hendersons horses in fine order ( 9 winners 4 seconds and an UR from last 14 runners ) and with the going likely soft/heavy, really starting to fancy the chances of Royal Boy, needed the run first time out, as many henderson horses have done, but was impressive lto and a piece of form when just beaten by Melodic Rendevouz last season stands out. Tho 2mile not his ideal trip, the fact it will be run on such testing ground and at a fair clip with front runners like The Liquidator,Amore Alato & Zamdy Man means it could set the race up for a strong finisher.. (also entered for the Lanzarote so awaiting confirmation of target race)
0 Got a tasty price on that, great ride by the champ!

Great shout, fact Geraghty got on Josses Hill just put me off frown.gif

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#18 2014-01-11 19:54:50

pk75
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Join Date: 2010-02-01
Posts: 18694

Re: TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2014

moconnell wrote:


pk75 wrote:


pk75 wrote:


With Hendersons horses in fine order ( 9 winners 4 seconds and an UR from last 14 runners ) and with the going likely soft/heavy, really starting to fancy the chances of Royal Boy, needed the run first time out, as many henderson horses have done, but was impressive lto and a piece of form when just beaten by Melodic Rendevouz last season stands out. Tho 2mile not his ideal trip, the fact it will be run on such testing ground and at a fair clip with front runners like The Liquidator,Amore Alato & Zamdy Man means it could set the race up for a strong finisher.. (also entered for the Lanzarote so awaiting confirmation of target race)
0 Got a tasty price on that, great ride by the champ!

Great shout, fact Geraghty got on Josses Hill just put me off frown.gif
Thanks Moconnell..Formwise thought this was well overlooked...Got to say tho I genuinely dont think if jockey bookings were reversed it would have won!! 

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