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#1 2014-01-29 18:29:50

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6890

TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

The Boylesports Free Wifi Coming To Our Shops Tied Cottage Chase is a 2 mile grade 2 Chase for 5 year olds and upwards and takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 2nd February. This race was first run in 1999 as a novice chase but was made into its present incarnation in 2003. It was won twice by Moscow Flyer, who went on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase on his next start on both occasions and it has also been the prep race for the past 2 Irish Queen Mother winners, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

7yo: 1-1-3

8yo: 2-1-13

9yo: 3-4-20

10yo: 2-2-9

11yo+: 2-2-11

No real trend to go on with ages of winners being fairly evenly spread out.

 

Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners won last time out

7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in one of their last two completed chase starts (3 exceptions posted an RPR of 166+ last time)

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season

7 of 10 runners had run in the past 40 days (3 exceptions ran in the Tingle Creek last time out)

10 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 22 chases

9 of 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (2 exceptions had finished 2nd in a grade 1 or 2)

 

Other Races

Hilly Way Chase winner (Twinlight): 15321 (2-1-5)

Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 1 (1-0-1)

Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): F (0-0-1)

Previous season's Craddockstown Novice Chase winner (Twinlight): 3 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 3 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 44 (0-0-2)

7 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother, finishing U6PF612

7 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 1523121

6 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 231421

6 of 10 winners ran in the Fortria Chase, finishing 111312

4 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in previous season's Tied Cottage, finishing F231

4 of 10 winners ran in the Normans Grove Chase last time, finishing 4111

3 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 141

3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Dan Moore Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing 331

2 of 10 winners ran in Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Arkle, finishing 2P

 

Trainers

Henry De Bromhead (2-0-4) trained Sizing Europe to win the last 2 renewals.  

Willie Mullins (1-1-5) trained Golden Silver to win this in 2011.

 

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 7/2 or below

9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting and the only exception was in 2007 when the favourite was brought down.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10 runnings, though show a level stakes loss of 1.99.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 8 years you are looking for a horse:

- Has last run in the past 40 days (ideally winning)

- Posted highest RPR in last 2 chase starts (or posted RPR of 160+ last time)

- Run 2 to 5 times this season

- Run in 9 to 22 chases

- Won a grade 1 chase (ideally multiple grade 1’s)

- Ran in 2013 Queen Mother and/or Punchestown Champion Chase

- First 3 in Fortria, Tingle Creek, Normans Grove and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase this season

- First 3 in Tied Cottage and/or Dan Moore H’cap last season

- Priced 7/2 or lower

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#2 2014-01-29 20:48:26

jimpy
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Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 6093

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

Arvika ligeonairre will be a 6/4 shot for this race.

hopefully he bounces back after being beat at leopardstown lto.

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#3 2014-01-30 12:12:00

cobb-douglas
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Join Date: 2010-10-02
Posts: 1094

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

Bog Warrior will be fairly straight coming out this late in the season.  Trip might be sharp nowadays but he trounced Flemenstar to win his beginners over 2miles a couple years ago.  Gets weight from the whole field including 8 pounds from Arvika.

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#4 2014-01-30 23:30:02

keano
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Join Date: 2008-03-27
Posts: 3863

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

If ground dried out then I'd be interested in Baily Green but hard to weigh up the race until the final declarations as Mullins has top 2 in the betting and Gigginstown has 3 entered

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#5 2014-01-31 13:39:10

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3671

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

Only 4 declared but still interesting

1     P1-113    Arvika Ligeonniere37      9    11-12    W P Mullins52   Ruby Walsh  157    153    167
2     513-U3    Special Tiara77      7    11-12    Henry De Bromhead40  Davy Russell     153    151    163
3     2-1115    Rathlin15 t      9    11-10    M F Morris     M A Enright   157    143    162
4     111221    Toner D´Oudairies27 tp      7    11-7    Gordon Elliott48   Bryan Cooper  150    125    158

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#6 2014-01-31 14:41:54

burnsy
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Join Date: 2008-11-06
Posts: 1766

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

Won't be having a bet as Arvika is too short at 4/9 but he's 4 from 4
around Punchestown, and even giving weight away it's hard to make a case
for him getting beat

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#7 2014-02-01 00:15:37

james99
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Join Date: 2009-09-09
Posts: 568

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

surprised theyre running Toner Doudairies in this, 2 miles seems too short for him, would think they'd have been looking for something in the 2m4f/6f trip

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#8 2014-02-01 08:53:46

jimpy
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Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 6093

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

Arvika has a clear round he wins! 1/2 is value when he should be 1/6.

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#9 2014-02-01 09:04:01

moconnell
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Join Date: 2008-07-04
Posts: 2414

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

jimpy wrote:


Arvika has a clear round he wins! 1/2 is value when he should be 1/6.

Maybe a little unfairly as he's only fallen once but I've always had him down as a bit of dodgy jumper which would worry me about taking short odds

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#10 2014-02-02 01:42:32

deetee20
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Join Date: 2009-03-12
Posts: 1264

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

If he jumps around it is very hard to see past Arvika, ground will be too soft for Special Tiara and the 2 Gigginstown owned runners need further

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#11 2014-02-02 14:34:26

keano
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Join Date: 2008-03-27
Posts: 3863

Re: TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2014

Looking at the betting w/o Arivka I think the value is Raithlin who was in very good form over the summer and he usually goes well in February, 4 runs in the month of Feb have produced 3 wins and 1 second. He was runner-up in a 2m4f handicap hurdle on heavy at the 2013 Punchestown Festival and he won on his latest run here by 19 lengths in a 2m6f chase. On his latest start over fences he was a 6 length winner over Hidden Cyclone 2m6f chase at the Galway Festival. He was off the track for almost 6 months before finishing a distant 5th in a grade 3 hurdle last month. In past season he’s improved significantly for his first run, so should be much better today and switch back to fences will also help.

Raithlin 5/2 w/o Arvika

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