The Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup (formerly sponsored by Boylesports and several others) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 14th December. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 5 of the last 8 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start.
Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings (2002 to 2013):
Horses aged 4 to 7: 9-16-69
Horses aged 9 or older: 1-10-77
6 & 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 41.8% of the total runners.
Horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 44 runners since 2002. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged older than 9.
French bred: 8-11-54
Irish bred: 2-14-60
British bred: 0-1-26
French bred horses have won 8 of last 10 runnings and they have represented just 37% of total runners. All French bred winners were aged 7 or younger.
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-9-62
Horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 5-17-84
No very strong trends on weight carried by the winners.
Record of top weight: 4P4P5PR9102P (1-1-12). Poquelin won the race in 2010 under top weight, though had a claimer taking 5lbs off.
4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty since 2000 have been placed.
Horses rated 145 or higher: 5-12-71
Horses rated 144 or lower: 5-14-75
No huge bias on official ratings over the past 10 years, however if we focus on the past 6 renewals:
Horses rated 145 or higher: 5-9-47
Horses rated 144 or lower: 1-7-44
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
9 of 10 winners posted RPR of 142+ last time out
8 of 10 finished in the first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
9 of 10 winners had previously contested 6 to 14 chases (exception had run in 3)
10 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases (exception was Poquelin winning it for a 2nd time in 2010)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
6 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers (3 exceptions were 3rd season chasers & other was a first season chaser)
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded chase (exception was a novice that had yet run in a class 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham
Littleworth Handicap Chase winner (Kapga De Cerisy): 13 (1-1-2)
Pendil Novice Chase winner (Grandioso): 6BP (0-0-3)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Champion Court): 500 (0-0-3)
Record of horses that won or placed in Paddy Power Gold Cup: 47021BP10PP561650U12 (4-2-20)
Record of horses that won or placed in Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: 3184U1 (2-2-6)
Record of highest placed finisher from Arkle Novice Chase: 1B219462 (2-3-8)
Record of highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: F919 (1-0-4)
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 8) ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 31252
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 37
7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Arkle, 2 Rewards4Racing Nov H'cap Chase, 1 Grand Annual, 1 RSA, 1 Coral Cup & 1 Ryanair)
5 of 10 winners contested a chase at that year's Aintree Festival
Paul Nicholls (3-6-20) saddled Poquelin to win the race in 2009 & 2010 and Unioniste last year. He has had a winner or placed finisher in 8 of the last 9 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (3-0-12) has also trained 3 of the last 10 winners of this.
David Pipe (1-2-14), Philip Hobbs (1-1-5) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-6) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in past 10 runnings.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-13) has saddled 3 placed finishers from 13 runners since 2002.
Irish trained horses (1-2-27) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 20 runners since 2000. Both winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival.
7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however 3 of last 7 winners were sent off 16/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-3-10) don’t have a great record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since 1996.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 6 or 7
- Officially rated 145+
- Run 1 to 3 times this season
- Finished in the first 3 last time & posted an RPR of 142+
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Run in 6 to 14 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Run in 4 or less handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
- 2nd or 3rd season chaser
- Previously won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham
- Won or placed in a graded chase
- Finished in first 5 in Paddy Power Gold Cup
- Ran in 2013 Arkle or Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls