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#1 2014-01-15 18:27:10

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6969

PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

The Peter Marsh Chase, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 18th January, is a grade 2 limited handicap chase run over 3M 1F. The race is usually run on very testing ground and has been abandoned 4 times since the turn of the millennium.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2000:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-1

7yo: 0-3-12

8yo: 4-3-20

9yo: 2-7-26

10yo: 2-1-16

11yo: 1-0-6

12yo+: 1-2-9

8 of 10 winners were 8 to 10, though that age group represented almost 69% of total runners.

The one 11yo winner had previously won 2 grade 1 chases and the one 12yo winner had won a grade 3 chase on previous start and was placed in the previous running of the Peter Marsh.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 6-5-42

GB bred: 3-5-19

French bred: 1-6-26

Other: 0-0-3

9 of 10 winners were GB or Irish bred

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 5-11-43

Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 5-5-47

The last 3 winners were all allotted 11-5 or more.

Top Weight: 4322522164P (1-5-11)

4 of last 5 winners were ridden by claiming jockeys.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 8-10-52

Horses rated 139 or less: 2-6-38

8 of 10 winners were running off a mark of 140 or higher

Horses running from out of handicap: 2-3-23

 

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 chase starts

8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last completed chase start

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 139+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts

10 of 10 winners had had their last start in December or January

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August

8 of 10 winners run 10 times or more over fences (1 exception had finished 4th in that season's Hennessy Gold Cup on second chase run & other was 4th in previous season's Arkle)

9 of 10 winners had won at least 3 times over fences

8 of 10 winners had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases

7 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (2 others had won over 2M 6F+)

5 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over CD & 2 others were making racecourse debut)

7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher chase

9 of 10 had contested a graded chase

8 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 chase that season

 

Other Races

5 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing P3F31

2 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 44

 

Trainers

Sue Smith (2-2-7) has a fine record, having saddled 2 winners & 2 places since 2000. 

Venetia Williams (1-1-5) has gained 1 win & 1 place from her last 5 runners.

Donald McCain (1-0-2) trained Cloudy Lane to win this in 2009, his father trained the winner in 2006.

Paul Nicholls (0-1-4) has gained just 1 place from his 4 runners (all priced 8/1 or shorter).

Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-5) has seen all 5 of his runners finish unplaced.  

 

Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently

 

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced shorter than 10/1, though 2 of last 5 winners were sent of 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (1-3-10) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 8 to 10 (or aged 11+ & has won a graded chase)

- Officially rated 140 or higher

- Finished in first 4 on last completed start in past 30 days

- Posted an RPR of 139+ in one or both of last 2 completed chase starts

- Run 2 to 5 times this season

- Has won a chase over 3M+

- Previously run in 10 or more chases

- Previously won at least 3 times over fences

- Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases

- Won a class 2 or higher chase

- Previously contested a graded chase (& contested a class 1 race this season)

- Had last start in the Rowland Meyrick Chase

- Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance

- Trained by Sue Smith, Don McCain or Venetia Williams

- Tends to race prominently

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#2 2014-01-15 21:13:32

chicago1984
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Join Date: 2014-01-13
Posts: 21

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

I fancy rival d'estruval here. I had it last year at chelt festival and it ran a blinder until falling when it was a good bit clear, then went off fav for the scottish nationla and pulled up, its won on the the heavy and soft ground so i can see it running a big race then off to cheltenham. 


I also think katenko will come back with a bang one day and this may well be it after the operations etc, he has taking time to get back to 100% so he may well be ready for this!

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#3 2014-01-15 22:24:17

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1162

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

chicago1984 wrote:


I fancy rival d'estruval here. I had it last year at chelt festival and it ran a blinder until falling when it was a good bit clear, then went off fav for the scottish nationla and pulled up, its won on the the heavy and soft ground so i can see it running a big race then off to cheltenham. 


I also think katenko will come back with a bang one day and this may well be it after the operations etc, he has taking time to get back to 100% so he may well be ready for this!
Katenko seems to be the 1 the trends point too definitely,has been running in graded chases too,8 yr olds are the best winning age group and anything and everything Venetia Williams Runs at the moment has to be taken very seriously,also has not got a bad recent Record in this event either,looks a massive player to me Mate!! have a feeling the bookies will have him priced up as there likely Fav!! but maybe wrong,he does bring some of the best form on offer in the Race though for definite,bye mate!!

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#4 2014-01-16 07:53:13

billyb
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Join Date: 2008-03-28
Posts: 1511

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

Vintage Star ran well for a long way in the Welsh National before not seeing out the trip, if that run hasn't taken too much out of him I'd give him a good chance. Sue Smith has a good record in the race and horses are running well

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#5 2014-01-16 19:26:08

leo
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Join Date: 2014-01-03
Posts: 84

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

Fancy Merry King in this.
Ran very well in the Hennessey this season and he's wearing the first time visor here so should sharpen him up.

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#6 2014-01-17 11:56:57

sheedyboy
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Join Date: 2010-06-09
Posts: 79

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

Night Alliance was an impressive course winner last time and Newland's yard in good heart

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#7 2014-01-17 21:05:53

soviet song
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Join Date: 2012-10-14
Posts: 1318

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

Two against the field for me here:Katenko @ 5/1
                                                     Merry King @ 5/1


Katenko has some really strong form in the book and Merry King has a featherweight and first time visor.


Both will love the ground.

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#8 2014-01-17 21:09:49

wezzer91
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Join Date: 2011-07-15
Posts: 1028

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

Would Fancy Merry King in this but i think they may be protecting its mark for cheltenham so am left with Katenko at 5/1, looks solid bet, will love the ground, both runs this seasonw ere on ground that hasnt suited.

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#9 2014-01-17 22:38:12

millwallsean
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Join Date: 2013-08-04
Posts: 1029

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

two for me , first choice is the same as everyone else apparently Katenko @ 5/1 , and the other is Sydney Paget 7/1

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#10 2014-01-18 09:38:01

james99
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Join Date: 2009-09-09
Posts: 568

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

billyb wrote:


Vintage Star ran well for a long way in the Welsh National before not seeing out the trip, if that run hasn't taken too much out of him I'd give him a good chance. Sue Smith has a good record in the race and horses are running well

3 miles on testing ground is perfect for Vintage Star, at 7s is worth a bet

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#11 2014-01-18 09:49:37

rxxixd
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Join Date: 2013-12-30
Posts: 209

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

millwallsean wrote:


two for me , first choice is the same as everyone else apparently Katenko @ 5/1 , and the other is Sydney Paget 7/1



Same here sean. Good luck.

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#12 2014-01-18 10:11:14

jacklawrence
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Join Date: 2013-04-04
Posts: 362

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

james99 wrote:


billyb wrote:


Vintage Star ran well for a long way in the Welsh National before not seeing out the trip, if that run hasn't taken too much out of him I'd give him a good chance. Sue Smith has a good record in the race and horses are running well

3 miles on testing ground is perfect for Vintage Star, at 7s is worth a bet
Vintage Star for me too. I thought he ran a cracking race behind Hey Big Spender at Newcastle, would have won that day if his jumping had been better imo. That appeared to have been ironed out in the Welsh National where he jumped excellently the whole way round. Echo both your comments. This just looks like the ideal ground/distance and I didn't realise the trainer had such a good race record which only heightens one's confidence!!

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#13 2014-01-18 14:40:12

dan boyd
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Join Date: 2012-04-07
Posts: 25

Re: PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2014

Jason Maguire could have gone to Ascot to ride Bourne but he's at Haydock and do think the yard believe Sydney Paget is a good deal better than he showed last time, remember he was 5/2 fav for the Rowland Meyrick

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