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#1 2013-12-11 14:50:52

racecaller
Administrator
Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6754

NAVAN NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2013

The Navan Novice Hurdle is a grade 1, run over 2M 4F, and takes place on Sunday 15th December. The race was originally run as a grade 3 but was elevated to grade 1 status in 2004. It has been won by useful sorts in recent years including Mikael D’Haguenet, Shinrock Paddy, Oscars Well & Boston Bob.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 2-1-6

5yo: 5-3-27

6yo: 3-4-16

7yo+: 0-0-4

8 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, though they represented 81.1% of total runners.

The four 4yos to make the frame in this were Mikael D'Haguenet (1st), won the Neptune later that season, Nicanor (2nd) won the Neptune that season, Kicking King (2nd) was runner-up in the Supreme that season & Pont Alexandre (1st), 3rd in Neptune.

 

Gender

Mares (0-0-3) last won this race in 2002, the 3 in past 10 years were all unplaced.

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 2nd in Monksfield on last start)

9 of 10 winners ran in the last 50 days

8 of 10 winners ran at Navan or Punchestown last time (1 exception won Royal Bond on previous start and other having first run in Ireland)

10 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR last time

7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 exceptions began career over hurdles in France)

6 of 10 winners had won or placed on all starts at Navan (4 exceptions were having first course start)

6 of 10 winners gained first hurdles win at Punchestown or Navan

8 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths

 

Other Races

I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Moyle Park): 11F (2-0-3)

Follow Us On Facebook & Twitter Maiden Hurdle winner (Empire Of Dirt): 1 (1-0-1)

Goffs Land Rover Bumper INH Flat Race winner (Moyle Park): 1 (1-0-1)

Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Apache Stronghold): 324223322 (0-3-9)

3 of 10 winners ran in Monksfield Novice Hurdle, finishing 222

2 of 10 winners ran in 2M Navan I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle, finishing 11

 

Trainers

Willie Mullins (3-1-9) trained 3 of the past 5 winners (including both 4yo winners).

Noel Meade (1-3-10) has gained 1 win and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or lower

There have been no massive shocks but the favourite (1-2-10) does not have a good record in this. All ten market leaders went off 5/2 or shorter but only 1 has won and 3 of the 4 odds-on favourites have finished unplaced.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 or 6 (or a Willie Mullins German or French bred 4yo)

- Won last time out (or 2nd in Monksfield Novice hurdle)

- Posted highest RPR of 125+ last time out

- Had last run in the past 50 days

- Had last run at Navan or Punchestown

- Won or placed on all course starts (or having first run at Navan)

- Won a bumper or a hurdles race in France

- Won a hurdle or bumper by 5+ lengths

- Priced 8/1 or shorter

- Trained by Willie Mullins

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#2 2013-12-15 12:00:33

burnsy
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2008-11-06
Posts: 1733

Re: NAVAN NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Now jsut 2 runners left in this grade 1, and another grade 1 in which Mullins has a very short favourite. Very disappointing to see this going on most weekends now

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#3 2013-12-15 14:14:55

the gate
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2011-12-30
Posts: 728

Re: NAVAN NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2013

eamonn hames had big right up in the sun saturday mullins super trainer but racing will end up being the loser who wants to pay 25 euro in to see 1\5 shots not me

Last edited by the gate (2013-12-15 14:15:42)

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