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#1 2013-12-17 00:35:06

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6505

LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

The Wessex Youth Trust Long Walk Hurdle, which takes place at Ascot on Saturday 21st December, is a grade 1 hurdle run over 3M 1F and is one of the main pointers to the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. The race has been won by some of the best stayers of the past decade including Baracouda, Mighty Man, My Way De Solzen and Big Buck’s. Reve De Sivola won the race last year and will look to be another repeat winner of the race.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-3

5yo: 2-3-15

6yo: 2-6-22

7yo: 3-1-12

8yo: 2-2-13

9yo: 1-1-6

10yo+: 0-2-8

7 of 10 winners have been aged 5 to 7

All 3 winners aged 8+ were previous winners of this race and the World Hurdle.

 

Gender

Mares (0-0-5) have failed to win this race since it became a grade 1 in 1990 and none of their 5 representatives have made the frame in the past 10 runnings.

 

Breeding

French bred: 10-8-31

Irish bred: 0-4-19

GB bred: 0-3-26

USA bred: 0-1-1

German bred: 0-0-2

The last 10 winners were French bred

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won)

9 of 10 winners had 1 previous run that season (posting an RPR of 148+ on that run)

10 of 10 winners had run in the last 40 days.

7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (3 exceptions had all won a hurdle worth over 10K)

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F or further

7 of 10 winners were officially rated 155 or higher (3 exceptions rated 142 to 149)

 

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Reve De Sivola): 31611 (3-0-5)

Highest placed finisher from World Hurdle: 11F1541112 (6-1-10)

Long Distance Hurdle winner (Celestial Halo): 11F2111 (5-1-7)

Cleeve Hurdle winner (Reve De Sivola): 291 (1-1-3)

Classic Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 33 (0-1-2)

Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 75 (0-0-2)

7 of 10 winners ran in the World Hurdle that year, finishing 1239111

6 of 10 winners ran in the Long Distance Hurdle last time, finishing 111112

5 of 10 winners ran in the Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 14111

4 of 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 2411

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Hurdle last time, finishing 23

5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 21211

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-3-9) won the race with Big Buck’s 3 times (2009-2011).

Alan King (1-3-6) & David Pipe (1-2-6) have both trained winner and multiple placed horses.

Nick Williams (1-1-2) saddled Reve De Sivola to win it last year and Diamond Harry to place in 2009.

 

Price

7 of 10 winners were sent off favourite

The favourite (7-3-11) has won 7 of last 10 & shows a level stakes profit of 2.58.


Conclusion:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- French Bred gelding

- Aged 5 to 7 or a previous winner of the race

- Finished in first 3 in Long Distance or Ascot Hurdle last time

- Ran in the past 40 days, posting an RPR of 148+

- Won a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle

- Won over 2M 5F+

- Officially rated 155+

- Finished in first 4 in 2013 World, Cleeve and/or Liverpool Hurdle

- Previously finished in the first two in this race

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, David Pipe, Nick Williams or Alan King

- Favourite does well

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#2 2013-12-17 07:24:33

soviet song
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Join Date: 2012-10-14
Posts: 1067

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

At Fishers Cross looks banker material to me here.Barry Geraghty is adamant he would have beaten Celestial Halo last time but for a bad mistake.Is sure to strip a lot fitter here and odds of 11/10 look good value to me.

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#3 2013-12-17 10:14:56

happyhammer
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Join Date: 2008-03-26
Posts: 4377

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

If the heavens open and we get proper soft ground on Saturday then Reve De Sivola would have strong claims, having won this last year. Not sure I'd want to be taking short odds about At Fishers Cross seeing how far he was beaten last day, still has questions to answer against the established top staying hurdlers

Last edited by happyhammer (2013-12-17 10:17:11)

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#4 2013-12-18 01:26:14

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3588

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

9 entered:

1     1111-4    At Fishers Cross21      6    11-7    Rebecca Curtis67    A P McCoy     161    138    163
2     26-161    Celestial Halo21      9    11-7    Paul Nicholls62    Daryl Jacob     165    160    172
3     P3P7-5    Grands Crus47      8    11-7    David Pipe24    Tom Scudamore     154    134    159
4     O121-2    Mala Beach41    5    11-7    Gordon Elliott50         148    126    155
5     11P-22    Medinas21    6    11-7    Alan King19         154    146    162
6     42-013    Reve De Sivola21      8    11-7    Nick Williams63    Richard Johnson     160    156    171
7     115-22    Salubrious7    6    11-7    Paul Nicholls62         153    112    162
8     145/4-    Time For Rupert413      9    11-7    Paul Webber88    Denis O'Regan     154    —    —
9     59-041    Tweedledrum19      6    11-0    Tom Symonds67         123    122    136

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#5 2013-12-18 17:16:58

johnny t
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Join Date: 2009-09-18
Posts: 444

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Money come for Reve De Sivola today, anyone know if there has been much rain around Ascot?

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#6 2013-12-19 06:25:01

boylo
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Join Date: 2009-10-17
Posts: 887

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

johnny t wrote:


Money come for Reve De Sivola today, anyone know if there has been much rain around Ascot?

Has been rain there though Nick Williams has said he thinks Reve is up against it even on soft

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#7 2013-12-19 09:56:51

cue the card
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Join Date: 2011-03-10
Posts: 18

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Celestial Halo won fair and square last time imo, think he'll go in again in this

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#8 2013-12-20 18:38:48

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3588

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Celstial Halo out, so only 5 run

1     1111-4    At Fishers Cross21      6    11-7    Rebecca Curtis75    A P McCoy     161    138    165
2     26-161    Celestial Halo21 tb      9    11-7    Paul Nicholls61    DOUBTFUL     165    160    172
3     42-013    Reve De Sivola21      8    11-7    Nick Williams56    Richard Johnson     160    146    169
4     115-22    Salubrious7    6    11-7    Paul Nicholls61    Daryl Jacob     153    88    162
5     145/4-    Time For Rupert413      9    11-7    Paul Webber73    Denis O'Regan     154    —    165
6     59-041    Tweedledrum19 p      6    11-0    Tom Symonds50    Felix De Giles     123    95    136

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#9 2013-12-20 20:59:48

jimpy
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Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 5470

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

reve de sivola surely is the value bet here! punters have a short memory!
no bet for me though.

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#10 2013-12-21 02:16:11

statsman
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Join Date: 2009-02-26
Posts: 1355

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Last 10 winners have all been french bred, Reve de Sivola only french bred in the race and if he shows same amount of improvement from first to second run as he did last season, then he cna win this again

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#11 2013-12-21 19:06:56

jimpy
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Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 5470

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

statsman wrote:


Last 10 winners have all been french bred, Reve de Sivola only french bred in the race and if he shows same amount of improvement from first to second run as he did last season, then he cna win this again
destroyed them despite 2 really horriffic errors!! 7/2 was a lethal price.


at fishers cross is a selling plater!

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#12 2013-12-22 14:20:37

boylo
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Join Date: 2009-10-17
Posts: 887

Re: LONG WALK HURDLE TRENDS 2013

jimpy wrote:


statsman wrote:


Last 10 winners have all been french bred, Reve de Sivola only french bred in the race and if he shows same amount of improvement from first to second run as he did last season, then he cna win this again
destroyed them despite 2 really horriffic errors!! 7/2 was a lethal price.


at fishers cross is a selling plater!

That Albert Bartlett is a novice hurdle for future chasers, never that keen in backing horses who win it who stick to hurlding. Think they should stick At Fishers over fences sooner rather than later

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