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#1 2013-12-16 13:33:13

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6922

LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

The Grade 1 Lexus Chase, which takes place on Saturday 28th December, is one of the highlights of Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. It has been won by some of the top chasers of the past 10 years including Denman, Best Mate and the ill-fated Synchronised, who all went on to win the Gold Cup. In recent years British-trained runners have dominated.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-3-6

7yo: 3-6-24

8yo: 4-0-17

9yo: 1-5-20

10yo: 0-2-10

11yo+: 1-0-4

Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 8-9-47 which compares well to that of horses aged 9+: 2-7-34.

Beef Or Salmon won it for third time as a 9yo and Tidal (as an 11yo) got up late to win in a tight finish last time, both winners aged 9+ posted an RPR of 167+ last time.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start

19 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ on last completed chase start (8 posted RPR of 159+)

9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (6 had won a grade 1 chase)

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

3 of 10 winners had won at Leopardstown (7 others were having first course start)

5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) had run in 4 to 7 chases

 

Other Races

Previous Year's winner (Tidal Bay): 32123 (1-3-5)

Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 123 (1-2-3)

Previous season's Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 21 (1-1-2)

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 123 (1-1-3)

Better Prices On Betfair Mobile Novice Chase winner (Unioniste): 1 (1-0-1)

RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): F1P (1-0-3)

Record of horses that ran in previous season's RSA Chase: FP6121P172 (3-2-10)

Record of British-trained runners that ran in previous season's RSA Chase: 111 (3-0-3)

Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 13F465 (1-0-6)

John Durkan Memorial winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 33323 (0-4-5)

Leopardstown Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 324F3 (0-3-5)

Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonneire): 224 (0-2-3)

Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonneire): 2 (0-1-1)

Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Benefficient): 3 (0-1-1)

Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Mount Benbulben): U34 (0-1-3)

John Meagher Memorial Chase winner (Noble Prince): 2P47 (0-1-4)

P J Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Boston Bob): 3P (0-0-2)

Boylesports Bet On Your Mobile Novice Chase winner (Texas Jack): 84 (0-0-2)

Bobbyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): F47 (0-0-3)

Record of horses that ran in Hennessy Gold Cup: 161121 (4-1-6)

Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Betfair Chase: 1241 (2-1-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 14P5

4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Hennessy Gold Cup last time, finishing 12P2

3 of 4 second season chase winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing F16

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase last time, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in King George VI Chase, finishing 13

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-0-5) won the race in 2007, 2009 & 2012 and Neptune Collonges would have finished 1st or 2nd in 2008 but for falling 2 out.

Noel Meade (1-0-3) won this in 2010 with Pandorama.

Mouse Morris (0-3-6) trained the winner in 2001 and seen 3 of his last 6 make the places.

Paul Nolan (0-2-3) trained Joncol to be placed twice in this.

Robert Hennessy (0-1-1) & Colm Murphy (0-1-2) saddled 2nd & 3rd in 2011.

Willie Mullins (0-1-10) has never won the race and has only gained 1 from 10 runners since 2003.

British-trained runners (7-3-18) have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, including 6 of the last 7, from 24.7% of total runners since 2003.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners went off at 8/1 or shorter

Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.

Favourites (4-3-11) have a fair record, won 4 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 2.68.


Conclusion:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 8

- Finished in the first 3 last time out (posting RPR of 159+)

- Ran in last 50 days

- Had run once or twice this season

- Won over 3M+

- Won a Graded chase (ideally won a grade 1)

- Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase in March

- Ran in Hennessy Gold Cup or Betfair Chase last time

- Course winner (or having first start here)

- Trained in Great Britain (& ideally ran in 2013 RSA)

- Priced 8/1 or shorter

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#2 2013-12-16 23:03:30

burnsy
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Join Date: 2008-11-06
Posts: 1775

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

If Bobs Worth comes over I think Leopardstown track will really suit and he'd definitely be the one to beat

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#3 2013-12-18 01:54:29

jimpy
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Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 6136

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

unioniste is likely to take his chance.

if the ground was v heavy tidal bay is a possible runner but he is more likely to run in the welsh national.

this looks a cracking race!

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#4 2013-12-18 11:03:04

rc-gavin
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Join Date: 2013-06-10
Posts: 217

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

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#5 2013-12-22 18:44:31

peleus
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Join Date: 2013-11-19
Posts: 37

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

Cool. I'm pretty much excited for what Nicky can come up too. smile.gif

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#6 2013-12-26 07:21:43

thetimelord
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Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

Just a gnat's pube between the first three in the betting but they probably won't fill all the places (if only life were that simple I'd be as rich as Croesus) so Rubi Light looks worth a squeak at 33s.

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#7 2013-12-26 12:58:37

thetimelord
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Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

thetimelord wrote:


Just a gnat's pube between the first three in the betting but they probably won't fill all the places (if only life were that simple I'd be as rich as Croesus) so Rubi Light looks worth a squeak at 33s.


SCRUB THAT - Rubi is going in the Dial-a-Bet tomorrow and I can't see it filling either of the two places over Arvika or Sizing.

Last edited by thetimelord (2013-12-26 19:22:10)

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#8 2013-12-27 21:14:50

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1097

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

thetimelord wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


Just a gnat's pube between the first three in the betting but they probably won't fill all the places (if only life were that simple I'd be as rich as Croesus) so Rubi Light looks worth a squeak at 33s.


SCRUB THAT - Rubi is going in the Dial-a-Bet tomorrow and I can't see it filling either of the two places over Arvika or Sizing.

arvika and sizing did well then !! i backed the winner[Beneficiant] at 14/1 Happy Days!!

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#9 2013-12-27 21:31:59

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1097

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

Has to be Unioniste for me!! only currently a 5 yr old,but will very soon be a 6 yr old,ran in the rsa chase last yr,Brittish runners have an excellent record in the Race too and Paul Nichols only ever sends his very best over to the Emerald Isle,more often than not he brings  the prize money back home. he's had 2 Runs so far ,Won last time out,he looks more settled and stronger this yr,still only young,he's getting better and can only get even more better,can't say that about too many of these and i think he's the 1 to beat,should be a great Race whatever happens,just hoping Unioniste can deliver the performance of his life tomorrow and show the rest of them how far he has come and how good he already is,Nichols could of sent a few over for this,so the fact he sends this fella over speaks volumes in my opinion. Lump on !! 5/1 looks great Bet and Great Value!!

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#10 2013-12-28 05:33:57

thetimelord
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Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

stu3105 wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


Just a gnat's pube between the first three in the betting but they probably won't fill all the places (if only life were that simple I'd be as rich as Croesus) so Rubi Light looks worth a squeak at 33s.


SCRUB THAT - Rubi is going in the Dial-a-Bet tomorrow and I can't see it filling either of the two places over Arvika or Sizing.

arvika and sizing did well then !! i backed the winner[Beneficiant] at 14/1 Happy Days!!


Well Rubi didn't place and didn't reverse form with Arvika or Sizing just they didn't place either!


I still think there's only a gnat's pube between Bob, First & Sir and can't choose between them so will be leaving this well alone - Unioniste is barely on my radar for this.


Missed the post for [Benefficient] you must have put over on the Dial-a-Bet page!

Last edited by thetimelord (2013-12-28 06:03:11)

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#11 2013-12-28 13:21:01

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1097

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

thetimelord wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


Just a gnat's pube between the first three in the betting but they probably won't fill all the places (if only life were that simple I'd be as rich as Croesus) so Rubi Light looks worth a squeak at 33s.


SCRUB THAT - Rubi is going in the Dial-a-Bet tomorrow and I can't see it filling either of the two places over Arvika or Sizing.

arvika and sizing did well then !! i backed the winner[Beneficiant] at 14/1 Happy Days!!


Well Rubi didn't place and didn't reverse form with Arvika or Sizing just they didn't place either!


I still think there's only a gnat's pube between Bob, First & Sir and can't choose between them so will be leaving this well alone - Unioniste is barely on my radar for this.


Missed the post for [Benefficient] you must have put over on the Dial-a-Bet page!

unfortunately i was out with family and friends so did not put up anything regarding Beneficiant,which is typical when i pick out a good price winner,had a £1 each-way Patent!! Polisky let me down for £3,0071 which was a bit of a bummer but that's racing for you ,still had very nice £259 pickup though,Rockyaboya was my other Winner also at 14/1,returned at 7/1 so was very pleased to have found those,though did not have any of the pair in my daily tipping game and still managed to finish in top 10,should really of pissed that,put polisky in my monthly game too,instead of one of my 2 W14/1 Winners LOL!! but thats life,still in 17th place ,should be in top 5 really,oh yes i forgot i did post a comment on Beneficiant on the daily tipping game forum,but that was later after i'd placed my daily game tips,only looked at bloody kempton first of all oops!! bye mate!

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#12 2013-12-28 14:09:10

thetimelord
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: LEXUS CHASE TRENDS 2013

stu3105 wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


thetimelord wrote:


Just a gnat's pube between the first three in the betting but they probably won't fill all the places (if only life were that simple I'd be as rich as Croesus) so Rubi Light looks worth a squeak at 33s.


SCRUB THAT - Rubi is going in the Dial-a-Bet tomorrow and I can't see it filling either of the two places over Arvika or Sizing.

arvika and sizing did well then !! i backed the winner[Beneficiant] at 14/1 Happy Days!!


Well Rubi didn't place and didn't reverse form with Arvika or Sizing just they didn't place either!


I still think there's only a gnat's pube between Bob, First & Sir and can't choose between them so will be leaving this well alone - Unioniste is barely on my radar for this.


Missed the post for [Benefficient] you must have put over on the Dial-a-Bet page!

unfortunately i was out with family and friends so did not put up anything regarding Beneficiant,which is typical when i pick out a good price winner,had a £1 each-way Patent!! Polisky let me down for £3,0071 which was a bit of a bummer but that's racing for you ,still had very nice £259 pickup though,Rockyaboya was my other Winner also at 14/1,returned at 7/1 so was very pleased to have found those,though did not have any of the pair in my daily tipping game and still managed to finish in top 10,should really of pissed that,put polisky in my monthly game too,instead of one of my 2 W14/1 Winners LOL!! but thats life,still in 17th place ,should be in top 5 really,oh yes i forgot i did post a comment on Beneficiant on the daily tipping game forum,but that was later after i'd placed my daily game tips,only looked at bloody kempton first of all oops!! bye mate!


I noticed Rockyaboya mentioned over on the xmas ante-post bets page some time ago at 25/1 and seriously considered it then but ended up on Cause of Causes (pre-favouritism and came 2ND) as I am very drawn to the clock (as may be obvious from the monicker!)


I must admit I feel more comfortable working on the flat...as Jack Ramsden said:


"I cannot stress too strongly the importance of race times. They bind my whole approach together. There are fewer good times recorded over jumps but everyone seems to know about those horses and they are too short to back."



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