The Grade 1 Lexus Chase, which takes place on Saturday 28th December, is one of the highlights of Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. It has been won by some of the top chasers of the past 10 years including Denman, Best Mate and the ill-fated Synchronised, who all went on to win the Gold Cup. In recent years British-trained runners have dominated.
Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 8-9-47 which compares well to that of horses aged 9+: 2-7-34.
Beef Or Salmon won it for third time as a 9yo and Tidal (as an 11yo) got up late to win in a tight finish last time, both winners aged 9+ posted an RPR of 167+ last time.
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start
19 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ on last completed chase start (8 posted RPR of 159+)
9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (6 had won a grade 1 chase)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
3 of 10 winners had won at Leopardstown (7 others were having first course start)
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) had run in 4 to 7 chases
Previous Year's winner (Tidal Bay): 32123 (1-3-5)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): 123 (1-2-3)
Previous season's Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 21 (1-1-2)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 123 (1-1-3)
Better Prices On Betfair Mobile Novice Chase winner (Unioniste): 1 (1-0-1)
RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): F1P (1-0-3)
Record of horses that ran in previous season's RSA Chase: FP6121P172 (3-2-10)
Record of British-trained runners that ran in previous season's RSA Chase: 111 (3-0-3)
Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 13F465 (1-0-6)
John Durkan Memorial winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 33323 (0-4-5)
Leopardstown Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 324F3 (0-3-5)
Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonneire): 224 (0-2-3)
Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonneire): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Benefficient): 3 (0-1-1)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Mount Benbulben): U34 (0-1-3)
John Meagher Memorial Chase winner (Noble Prince): 2P47 (0-1-4)
P J Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Boston Bob): 3P (0-0-2)
Boylesports Bet On Your Mobile Novice Chase winner (Texas Jack): 84 (0-0-2)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): F47 (0-0-3)
Record of horses that ran in Hennessy Gold Cup: 161121 (4-1-6)
Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Betfair Chase: 1241 (2-1-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 14P5
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Hennessy Gold Cup last time, finishing 12P2
3 of 4 second season chase winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing F16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase last time, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in King George VI Chase, finishing 13
Paul Nicholls (3-0-5) won the race in 2007, 2009 & 2012 and Neptune Collonges would have finished 1st or 2nd in 2008 but for falling 2 out.
Noel Meade (1-0-3) won this in 2010 with Pandorama.
Mouse Morris (0-3-6) trained the winner in 2001 and seen 3 of his last 6 make the places.
Paul Nolan (0-2-3) trained Joncol to be placed twice in this.
Robert Hennessy (0-1-1) & Colm Murphy (0-1-2) saddled 2nd & 3rd in 2011.
Willie Mullins (0-1-10) has never won the race and has only gained 1 from 10 runners since 2003.
British-trained runners (7-3-18) have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, including 6 of the last 7, from 24.7% of total runners since 2003.
10 of 10 winners went off at 8/1 or shorter
Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (4-3-11) have a fair record, won 4 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 2.68.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- Finished in the first 3 last time out (posting RPR of 159+)
- Ran in last 50 days
- Had run once or twice this season
- Won over 3M+
- Won a Graded chase (ideally won a grade 1)
- Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase in March
- Ran in Hennessy Gold Cup or Betfair Chase last time
- Course winner (or having first start here)
- Trained in Great Britain (& ideally ran in 2013 RSA)
- Priced 8/1 or shorter