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#1 2013-12-17 18:23:48

racecaller
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LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

The Ladbroke is a 2M Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle, which takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 21st December. Always a highly competitive affair, it is generally won by more unexposed improving types. The race was first run in 2001, but has taken place at Sandown twice and was abandoned in 2009 & 2010.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 runnings since 2001.

 

Age (for age stats we are taking 04-05 & 05-06 renewals as run in December)

4yo: 2-9-49

5yo: 5-7-64

6yo: 2-8-37

7yo: 1-4-22

8yo: 0-1-15

9yo+: 0-1-4

9 of 10 winners have been aged 4 to 6

The only winner aged older than 6 was Chauvinist (7yo) in 2002. He had begun his racing career late (aged 6) and had run in just 4 hurdles race prior to this & was making handicap debut.

Horses aged 8+ (0-2-19) have a very poor record having gained no wins and just 2 places from 19 runners.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 8-16-112

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 2-14-79

Horses carrying 10-9+ have won 8 of last 10 runnings of the Ladbroke.

Top Weight: 9P40007002 (0-2-10)

Horses carrying a penalty: 43001 (1-2-5)


Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 2-5-23

Horses rated 130 to 139: 5-13-97

Horses rated 129 or lower: 3-12-61

5 of last 6 winners were officially rated between 132 and 144

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

5 of 10 winners won last time out

8 of 10 winners gained their highest RPR on their last outing

7 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 131+ last time out

7 of 10 winners was had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles that season

9 of 10 winners ran in 4 to 10 hurdles races prior to this

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 times over hurdles

9 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles

9 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers

The 10 winners had collectively had 15 prior hurdles starts since 1st June that year before winning this, finishing in first 3 in 14 of those 15.

 

Other races

Placed finishers from CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services H'cap Hurdle: 381391413 (3-4-9)

WilliamHill.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Pine Creek):  510 (1-0-3)

Canaccord Genuity Handicap Hurdle winner (Dunraven Storm): 292 (0-2-3)

William Hill - iPad App Now Available Juvenile Hurdle winner (Irish Saint): 40 (0-1-2)

Greatwood Hurdle winner (Dell' Arca): 8400 (0-1-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services H’cap Hurdle last time, finishing 321

2 of 10 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 01

2 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 70

5 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 County Hurdle, 1 Arkle, 1 Triumph & 1 Supreme Novices)

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (3-3-19) has won 3 of 10 runnings to date, including 2 of last 4, and also saddled the runner-up in two other years, including 2012.

The Pipe stable (3-3-23) have also won the race 3 times since its inception in 2001.

Venetia Williams (1-1-7) has saddled the winner and a placed finisher in this race.

Gordon Elliot (1-0-1) trained Cause Of Causes to win it last year.

Paul Nicholls (0-3-11), Gary Moore (0-3-11) & Philip Hobbs (0-3-12) have saddled 3 placed finishers.

Charlie Longsdon (0-1-1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-5) & Willie Mullins (0-1-6) have all trained one placed finisher.

Irish trained runners (1-2-20) have gained 1 winner & 2 places from 20 representatives.

 

Running Style

8 of 10 winners were held up in rear or midfield

 

Price

6 of 10 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 14/1 but no strong trends on prices.

Favourites (1-1-10) have a poor record having won just 1 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 to 6

- Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)

- Posted a career high RPR of 131+ last time

- Carrying 10-9+

- Officially rated 132 to 144

- Finished in first 3 in all starts this season

- Second season hurdler

- Run 4 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 3)

- Run in 5 or less handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)

- Ran at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival

- Finished in first 3 in CF Roberts Electrical Mechanical Services H’cap Hurdle

- Trained by N Henderson, D Pipe, V Williams, G Moore or P Nicholls

- Hold up horses favoured

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#2 2013-12-17 19:41:03

buckeyebatter
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

I like Chris Pea Green for this @ 14/1. Decent C and D form, wouldn't mind a bit more give in the ground (heavy rain forecast for Sat morning) and his trainer is in outstanding form.

Chatterbox also looks to have solid claims and maybe also Ruacana. 33/1 looks huge for the latter


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#3 2013-12-17 19:49:56

the gate
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

flaxen flare for me 16\1

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#4 2013-12-17 22:42:56

mrfleamans
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Only one horse I could possibly fancy in this...


CHATTERBOX - Of all the horses in the Henderson stable, this is one of the better ones I never really warmed to in his first season over hurdles; partly because he foiled a 4-timer of mine when beating stablemate My Tent Or Yours who has only tasted defeat since in the Supreme. Chatterbox went for the Neptune and didn't jump with his usual fluency, clearly all the better for the experience being around top-class horses such as The New One and Rule The World. Prior to that he had won twice at Newbury, beating Lac Fontana on the first occasion and My Tent on the second; good return back at the same track last month, 2nd to the enterprisingly ridden Ifandbutwhynot, travelling best of all at the top of the straight until taking a blow before 2 out and then ran on at the one pace; will appreciate the likely faster pace on here and will benefit greatly from that run - looks a massive player here.

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#5 2013-12-17 23:08:42

stu3105
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

mrfleamans wrote:


Only one horse I could possibly fancy in this...


CHATTERBOX - Of all the horses in the Henderson stable, this is one of the better ones I never really warmed to in his first season over hurdles; partly because he foiled a 4-timer of mine when beating stablemate My Tent Or Yours who has only tasted defeat since in the Supreme. Chatterbox went for the Neptune and didn't jump with his usual fluency, clearly all the better for the experience being around top-class horses such as The New One and Rule The World. Prior to that he had won twice at Newbury, beating Lac Fontana on the first occasion and My Tent on the second; good return back at the same track last month, 2nd to the enterprisingly ridden Ifandbutwhynot, travelling best of all at the top of the straight until taking a blow before 2 out and then ran on at the one pace; will appreciate the likely faster pace on here and will benefit greatly from that run - looks a massive player here.
Yes definitely a horse iv'e got time for,on my list to follow from last season,looks to have a bright future,whether he Wins this or not,i'm pretty sure he will win a decent pot at some stage,definitely 1 to keep on side i think!! the coral Cup at Cheltenham could be a likely target,think that 2 Mile 5 trip would suit him better to be honest,but iv'e already got River Maigue in mind for that particular Race,however if i was wrong about him,and Chatterbox turned up for that Race instead then i'd be very interested in him for that Race,but would not rule him out for this Race either,Henderson knows the time of Day and i'm sure he'll go there with a big shout,he doesn't run them if he feels they are not worthy of there place,especially in a top H'cap such as the Ladbroke,Good Luck Mate!!

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#6 2013-12-18 15:10:48

mrfleamans
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Chatterbox tipped up by Paul Kealy, Malcolm Heyhoe and Bill Wallace in the Weekender....Ladbrokes offering NRNB so done this...


The Ladbroke
The Ladbroke
Non Runner No Bet
2013-12-20 17:30:00
Chatterbox @ 8/1 (each-way 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Pending
ChannelInternet
Bet Placed At18/12/2013
Bet TypeSingle
Stake Per Line£10.00
Number Of Lines2
Total Stake Paid£20.00

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#7 2013-12-18 16:46:22

stu3105
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

mrfleamans wrote:


Chatterbox tipped up by Paul Kealy, Malcolm Heyhoe and Bill Wallace in the Weekender....Ladbrokes offering NRNB so done this...


The Ladbroke
The Ladbroke
Non Runner No Bet
2013-12-20 17:30:00
Chatterbox @ 8/1 (each-way 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Pending
ChannelInternet
Bet Placed At18/12/2013
Bet TypeSingle
Stake Per Line£10.00
Number Of Lines2
Total Stake Paid£20.00
Well done!! Looks like a decent Bet Mate,this horse has a lot of potential and should be capable of Winning a decent H'cap,problem is so does his Stablemate Rolling Star,this 1 heads the market at 4/1,and i think that could actually be a good price,looks the stables number 1 for this and i'd be surprised if Barry Geraghty was not on board him,think Chatterbox would prefer softer ground and have a feeling he made need a bit further,2 Mile 4 would bring some more improvement out of him i think,2 mile on quicker ground may just find him out,he beat My Tent Or Yours on Heavy last Season,can Run well,but has to be Rolling Star for me. Good Luck though Mate,hope he Runs a big Race for you!!

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#8 2013-12-18 16:57:29

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

buckeyebatter wrote:


I like Chris Pea Green for this @ 14/1. Decent C and D form, wouldn't mind a bit more give in the ground (heavy rain forecast for Sat morning) and his trainer is in outstanding form.

Chatterbox also looks to have solid claims and maybe also Ruacana. 33/1 looks huge for the latter


Can't believe nobody has mentioned the Good thing yet!! LOL! That being Rolling Star!! I would normally say 4/1 is a ridiculously short price in a Race like this,however on this occasion i feel that could be a fair Price, This horse has always been ranked pretty high in the pecking order at Seven Barrows,Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have always held him in high regard and just like with Sprinter Sacre ,they very seldom get things like that wrong,I expect Barry Geraghty to be Riding this Fella rather than Stablemate Chatterbox.On that note,Stop being Chatterboxes everybody and go and put some cash on the likely Winner[ Rolling Star] Good Luck All and Merry Christmas!! Bye!

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#9 2013-12-18 17:07:50

stu3105
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

mrfleamans wrote:


Only one horse I could possibly fancy in this...


CHATTERBOX - Of all the horses in the Henderson stable, this is one of the better ones I never really warmed to in his first season over hurdles; partly because he foiled a 4-timer of mine when beating stablemate My Tent Or Yours who has only tasted defeat since in the Supreme. Chatterbox went for the Neptune and didn't jump with his usual fluency, clearly all the better for the experience being around top-class horses such as The New One and Rule The World. Prior to that he had won twice at Newbury, beating Lac Fontana on the first occasion and My Tent on the second; good return back at the same track last month, 2nd to the enterprisingly ridden Ifandbutwhynot, travelling best of all at the top of the straight until taking a blow before 2 out and then ran on at the one pace; will appreciate the likely faster pace on here and will benefit greatly from that run - looks a massive player here.
I could of made a strong case for him ,and may have had a few quid on him,what puts me off is the fact the Stable are also represented by the Favorite Rolling Star, The Trainer and Jockey rate him very highly,i think he could go on to be a bit better than a H'capper,he could potentially be different Class to a lot of these,if not all,may sound very bold and Brave,but they are just my thoughts and my personal opinion,does not mean that i maybe right,i maybe more than likely wrong,4/1 is short enough,but as they say a 4/1 Winner is always better than a 8/1 loser!! He's the 1 for me anyway,good luck everybody with your selections,Just don't beat mine yeah LOL!!! just joking ,Bye!

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#10 2013-12-18 17:39:27

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

good luck with Rolling Star stu, the reason why I don't like it much as although Henderson has said that he strengthened up loads during the summer and that he appeared to improve for the summer under his belt by winning at Haydock, the form does not inspire me in the slightest, and, in actual fact, none of Rolling Star's convinces me - lets go through his British races:


26th Jan - Cheltenham - Grade 2: 2m - beat Irish Saint by 2 1/4 lengths:


Held up tracking leaders in 3rd, went 2nd after 3f out, closing on leader when not fluent last, shaken up and quickened run-in to lead final 110yds, comfortably


This was a promising start to his UK racing career, but the form doesn't look so rosy now, Irish Saint did win next time out at Kempton but that form isn't great...on return was held in 4th off 143 in the race Chatterbox (2nd) and Chris Pea Green (3rd) ran in at Newbury before falling.


15th March - Cheltenham Festival - Grade 1: 2m - beaten 23L into 6th by Our Conor:


Raced keenly, chased leaders, ridden and not quicken after 2 out, kept on under pressure before last but no chance with winner, one pace run-in


Sent off 5/2 favourite for the 2013 renewal of the Triumph hurdle, this was bitterly disappointing for those, including myself, who expected lots of improvement from his first start in this country; that was not forthcoming here, totally outclassed by Our Conor; I put this down to him being way below par.


4th April - Aintree - Grade 1: 2m - beaten 9 3/4 lengths into 5th by L'Unique:


Chased leaders, ridden and upsides after 3 out, one pace


This horse's finishing effort was extremely disappointing and left him with a lot to prove; the ground could be a viable excuse and I was prepared to forgive this run; the form of this "Grade 1" is very poor.


23rd November - Haydock - Class 2: 2m - beat Doyle Carte by 2 3/4 lengths:


Held up, effort after 2 out, led run-in, soon edged left, stayed on to draw clear inside final 100yds


This looked like a confirmation of the improvement promised by his UK debut; however the favourite, Far West, was bitterly disappointing and the 2nd was a mare who could only finish 5th in a Mares' only Listed race on reappearance (good record fresh so that was a bit disappointing...handicapper has put him up 7lbs for winning that race, which, if one takes out the favourite, he was virtually entitled to win anyway. 150 looks a massive mark, I'd rather back Chatterbox.


Good luck though mate, just my opinion.



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#11 2013-12-18 19:49:19

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

mrfleamans wrote:


good luck with Rolling Star stu, the reason why I don't like it much as although Henderson has said that he strengthened up loads during the summer and that he appeared to improve for the summer under his belt by winning at Haydock, the form does not inspire me in the slightest, and, in actual fact, none of Rolling Star's convinces me - lets go through his British races:


26th Jan - Cheltenham - Grade 2: 2m - beat Irish Saint by 2 1/4 lengths:


Held up tracking leaders in 3rd, went 2nd after 3f out, closing on leader when not fluent last, shaken up and quickened run-in to lead final 110yds, comfortably


This was a promising start to his UK racing career, but the form doesn't look so rosy now, Irish Saint did win next time out at Kempton but that form isn't great...on return was held in 4th off 143 in the race Chatterbox (2nd) and Chris Pea Green (3rd) ran in at Newbury before falling.


15th March - Cheltenham Festival - Grade 1: 2m - beaten 23L into 6th by Our Conor:


Raced keenly, chased leaders, ridden and not quicken after 2 out, kept on under pressure before last but no chance with winner, one pace run-in


Sent off 5/2 favourite for the 2013 renewal of the Triumph hurdle, this was bitterly disappointing for those, including myself, who expected lots of improvement from his first start in this country; that was not forthcoming here, totally outclassed by Our Conor; I put this down to him being way below par.


4th April - Aintree - Grade 1: 2m - beaten 9 3/4 lengths into 5th by L'Unique:


Chased leaders, ridden and upsides after 3 out, one pace


This horse's finishing effort was extremely disappointing and left him with a lot to prove; the ground could be a viable excuse and I was prepared to forgive this run; the form of this "Grade 1" is very poor.


23rd November - Haydock - Class 2: 2m - beat Doyle Carte by 2 3/4 lengths:


Held up, effort after 2 out, led run-in, soon edged left, stayed on to draw clear inside final 100yds


This looked like a confirmation of the improvement promised by his UK debut; however the favourite, Far West, was bitterly disappointing and the 2nd was a mare who could only finish 5th in a Mares' only Listed race on reappearance (good record fresh so that was a bit disappointing...handicapper has put him up 7lbs for winning that race, which, if one takes out the favourite, he was virtually entitled to win anyway. 150 looks a massive mark, I'd rather back Chatterbox.


Good luck though mate, just my opinion.



i understand your reasons Mate,you may be right, most of his Form from last year would not be good enough,but however that was his first season and his novice season so i for one am willing to give him a chance to show his true colors which i don't think any of us have seen yet,if Henderson says he has strengthened up through the summer and is expected to be all the better for that,then that will do for me,This yard are rarely wrong,when they say a Horse is very good,then they are good period!! already Won first time up this season,He Won his first 2 starts last term and he can do so again Bud!! I'm anticipating something special from this Horse,I think he'll Win for sure,and Win it well too. he's actually 6/1-13/2 too not 4/1 so even better for me,Happy Days!! That won't last too long though,i wouldn't of thought!!i will also have a £10 F/Cast on My pick and your fancy [Chatterbox] looks a fair Punt too,Good Luck Mate with Chatterbox,He's always been a BIG TALKING HORSE LOL!! Let's just hope he can do all his talking on the Track instead aye!! Bye!!

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#12 2013-12-18 20:10:32

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

15/2 with 888 now mate....7/1 with Betfred and Totesport....to be honest think those prices are too big for horse held in such high regard by Nicky, if you asked him which horse he thinks will win he'd only give one answer - good luck

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#13 2013-12-18 21:59:42

stu3105
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

mrfleamans wrote:


15/2 with 888 now mate....7/1 with Betfred and Totesport....to be honest think those prices are too big for horse held in such high regard by Nicky, if you asked him which horse he thinks will win he'd only give one answer - good luck
i take your point,and i respect your views,but i'll stick with Rolling Star and i'll take the chance that he can Win this,i know where you are coming from about his current price,Has Barry Geraghty gave a decision yet as to which Horse he will be Riding? my thinking is that may be the reason in why his Odds appear to be on the drift,Bookies way of trying to tempt punters by by offering a little bit of Value on some of the more fancied Runners,especially when a Yard has 2 in the Race and everybody is guessing as to which horse will be partnered by the Stable Jockey,just like the current situation myself and you are in,i'm sticking with my guess that Barry will pick Rolling Star,therefore i'm predicting that his Odds will come tumbling down again by Tomorrow Evening /Friday Morning,certainly by post time anyway Bud,especially if it is Barry Geraghty thats holding the Reigns LOL!! Good Luck too you ,Again  Mate!!

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#14 2013-12-18 22:39:38

mrfleamans
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Geraghty will ride Rolling Star, no doubt about that, it's one of his ATR 10-to-follow:


"Is not a horse to lose faith in. Always held in very high regard and was well-fancied for the Triumph Hurdle but didn’t perform to anywhere near the level he is capable of and again at Aintree. A summer break will help him having come over from France. Don’t forget him."


No idea who will ride Chatterbox, McCoy might do because McManus might let Ruby ride City Slicker as it's a Mullins horse and I don't see the other 3 JP horses running...if not I'm assuming it will be Bass/Tinkler...I prefer Tinkler on strong travellers like Chatterbox myself, Bass is like the jump jockey version of Fallon

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#15 2013-12-19 00:27:33

gold digger
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

I have the utmost respect for the Henderson duo in this and might consider chucking a fiver at Barry's choice but I've split my stakes between Dell Arca 10/1 (nrnb) and City Slicker 8/1. The former won the Greatwood a tad snugly and is likely to come on massively for that experience. He makes up his ground effortlessly to sit just behind the leader on the run down the hill and when Scu asks him at the last he clears it by 3 foot, suggesting there's plenty left under the bonnet. He lands awkwardly as a result of that exuberant leap and loses a little momentum but is soon upsides again, he has a look at the crowd, drifting right, totally understandable given his inexperience but when Scu asks him in the last 50 yds he knuckles down really well. I suspect another 1/2f and he'd have stretched a few lengths clear. A mark of 136 looks attractive, I think there's a lot more to come from him.
  City Slicker is 3/3 RH, looking a class act on each of those victories. The race that reveals the most about him is his 9 1/2 length defeat to the classy Mala Beach, 2 1/2m hvy, on his hdls debut at Leopardstown. Despite looking disadvantaged by the LH track he moves through the race like much the best horse and on the run to the last has everything off the bridle, at the last his stamina gives way and he's well beaten from that point. Mala Beach has since ran in 3 G2's resulting in 1 win and two 2nd's and is now rated 148. City Slicker runs off 138 here. As a keen going sort he will be well suited to the strong pace and 2m trip and wont mind what the ground his. I suspect no one will be talking McCoy out of riding this fella! Good luck all.

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#16 2013-12-20 16:04:26

burnsy
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

the gate wrote:


flaxen flare for me 16\1

Me too, reminds me of last year's winner Cause Of Causes, both 4yos trained by Gordon Elliot, both finished 2nd in that year's Galway Hurdle, Cause Of Causes rated 142 when he won this, Flaxen running off 141

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#17 2013-12-20 16:17:11

14william88
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Does anyone know why Ladbrokes are only going 4/1  about Swing Bowler 00

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#18 2013-12-20 16:20:40

burnsy
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

14william88 wrote:


Does anyone know why Ladbrokes are only going 4/1  about Swing Bowler 00

They must have input the price incorrectly, they meant 14/1, think they've corrected it

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#19 2013-12-20 23:24:35

folski
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Does anyone simply think Recession Proof is an insane price, he travelled like an absolute dream last time he runs off 134 here he could be at least 15lb well in. Last time he ran over 3m and just faded after 2 out, short trip will definitely suit, and that Supreme race is one of the hottest races I've ever seen. Back over 2m tomorrow, Brendan Powell was very unlucky Brian Cooper had such a good Cheltenham last year or he'd have got a lot more publicity, more than able horse man. That being said, Rolling Star, Del Arca & City Slicker would be carrying my money if I was having a big bet.

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#20 2013-12-21 10:22:49

moconnell
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Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

folski wrote:


Does anyone simply think Recession Proof is an insane price, he travelled like an absolute dream last time he runs off 134 here he could be at least 15lb well in. Last time he ran over 3m and just faded after 2 out, short trip will definitely suit, and that Supreme race is one of the hottest races I've ever seen. Back over 2m tomorrow, Brendan Powell was very unlucky Brian Cooper had such a good Cheltenham last year or he'd have got a lot more publicity, more than able horse man. That being said, Rolling Star, Del Arca & City Slicker would be carrying my money if I was having a big bet.

Thnk you could be right on Recession Proof, running off same mark that saw him win the Totesport Trophy, and this will be his first run on soft ground since that win

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#21 2013-12-21 14:51:27

Re: LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Dell Arca makes most sense to me, think there's more to come from him

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