Boxing Day or St Stephens Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and the last 9 renewals of the race have been won by shared between just 3 horses, Kicking King, Kauto Star & Long Run.
Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:
Age (for age purposes we will assume the race run in 2010-11 season was run in 2010)
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-10-40
Compare that to horses aged 8 or older of 4-8-58.
Kauto Star has accounted for 3 of the 4 winners aged 8+.
French bred: 8-10-44
Irish bred: 2-5-35
GB bred: 0-3-16
German bred: 0-0-3
French-bred horses have won last 7 and have accounted for 18 of 28 places in last 10 runnings from approximately 44.9% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (3 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 170+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases
10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (2 others having first course start)
Previous year's winner (Long Run): 0111132 (4-2-7)
Highest placed finisher from previous King George: 4501411132 (4-2-10)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 1112 (3-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Cheltenham Gold Cup: F514112P (3-1-9)
Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 1311121P1 (6-1-9)
Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): P11711 (4-0-6)
Highest placed finisher from Betfair Chase: P1171511 (5-0-8)
Denman Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): F121 (2-1-4)
Ascot Chase winner (Cue Card): 216 (1-1-3)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 315 (1-1-3)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): P13P (1-1-4)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): P61 (1-0-3)
Peterborough Chase winner: 4334P (0-2-5)
RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): 2 (0-1-1)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 3 (0-1-1)
Amlin1965 Chase winner (Al Ferof): 6P2 (0-1-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Harry Topper): 6P4 (0-0-3)
Ryanair Chase winner (Cue Card): PP5P6 (0-0-5)
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U112
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 111132
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 1P
2 of 10 winners ran in Denman Chase, finishing 11
6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 112133
10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival
2 of 2 second season chasers to win this had placed in Arkle or RSA
Paul Nicholls (5-2-14) has won 5 of the last 7 renewals with Kauto Star.
Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled Long Run to finish 1st-2nd-1st in last 3 runnings.
David Pipe (0-3-10) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-5) have both saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 years, and saddled the 3rd & 2nd respectively last year.
Irish-trained runners (2-0-4) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, both Kicking King. Willie Mullins hasn’t had a runner in this in past 10 years but he did saddle Florida Pearl to finish 2nd & 1st in the first 2 runnings of the race this century.
The last 9 winners came from first 2 in the betting.
Edredon Bleu at 25/1 in 2003 has been only winner to be sent off greater than 9/2 since 2003.
7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 6.06.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- French bred
- Has run 1 to 3 times this season
- Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+)
- Won over 3M+
- Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
- Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or
- Second season chaser who placed in 2013 Arkle or RSA Chase
- Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Betfair Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
- From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1)