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#1 2013-11-23 17:17:36

racecaller
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KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Boxing Day or St Stephens Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and the last 9 renewals of the race have been won by shared between just 3 horses, Kicking King, Kauto Star & Long Run.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

 

Age (for age purposes we will assume the race run in 2010-11 season was run in 2010)

5yo: 1-0-2

6yo: 2-4-14

7yo: 3-6-24

8yo: 1-3-25

9yo: 1-2-15

10yo: 0-3-9

11+: 2-0-9

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-10-40

Compare that to horses aged 8 or older of 4-8-58.

Kauto Star has accounted for 3 of the 4 winners aged 8+.

 

Breeding

French bred: 8-10-44

Irish bred: 2-5-35

GB bred: 0-3-16

German bred: 0-0-3

French-bred horses have won last 7 and have accounted for 18 of 28 places in last 10 runnings from approximately 44.9% of total runners.

 

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (3 exceptions placed)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 170+ last time

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)

8 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases

7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (2 others having first course start)

 

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Long Run): 0111132 (4-2-7)

Highest placed finisher from previous King George:  4501411132 (4-2-10)

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 1112 (3-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from Cheltenham Gold Cup: F514112P (3-1-9)

Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 1311121P1 (6-1-9)

Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): P11711 (4-0-6)

Highest placed finisher from Betfair Chase: P1171511 (5-0-8)

Denman Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): F121 (2-1-4)

Ascot Chase winner (Cue Card): 216 (1-1-3)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 315 (1-1-3)

Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): P13P (1-1-4)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): P61 (1-0-3)

Peterborough Chase winner: 4334P (0-2-5)

RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): 2 (0-1-1)

Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 3 (0-1-1)

Amlin1965 Chase winner (Al Ferof): 6P2 (0-1-3)­

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Harry Topper): 6P4 (0-0-3)

Ryanair Chase winner (Cue Card): PP5P6 (0-0-5)

7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U112

6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 111132

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 1P

2 of 10 winners ran in Denman Chase, finishing 11

6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 112133

10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival

2 of 2 second season chasers to win this had placed in Arkle or RSA

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (5-2-14) has won 5 of the last 7 renewals with Kauto Star.

Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled Long Run to finish 1st-2nd-1st in last 3 runnings.

David Pipe (0-3-10) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-5) have both saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 years, and saddled the 3rd & 2nd respectively last year.

Irish-trained runners (2-0-4) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, both Kicking King. Willie Mullins hasn’t had a runner in this in past 10 years but he did saddle Florida Pearl to finish 2nd & 1st in the first 2 runnings of the race this century.

 

Price

The last 9 winners came from first 2 in the betting.

Edredon Bleu at 25/1 in 2003 has been only winner to be sent off greater than 9/2 since 2003.

7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 6.06.


Conclusion:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 or 7

- French bred

- Has run 1 to 3 times this season

- Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+)

- Won over 3M+

- Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases

- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD

- Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or

- Second season chaser who placed in 2013 Arkle or RSA Chase

- Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Betfair Chase

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson

- From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1)

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#2 2013-11-24 15:14:21

happyhammer
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Dynaste ran a massive race in the Betfair yesterday, he won the Feltham really well last year and I think he'd be my pick as Cue Card's poorest run in past 2 years probably came in this race last year, there were excuses but I'm not sure I'd want to take a short price on him in case it was the track that wasn't to his liking

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#3 2013-11-24 18:55:59

rightjudgeiam
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

nothing beats Cue Card

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#4 2013-11-24 19:14:01

pidgiano
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

rightjudgeiam wrote:


nothing beats Cue Card

Except All Ferof of course !!

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#5 2013-11-24 19:28:29

gold digger
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

rightjudgeiam wrote:


nothing beats Cue Card
Except Cue Card....

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#6 2013-11-24 19:45:04

jimpy
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

gold digger wrote:


rightjudgeiam wrote:


nothing beats Cue Card
Except Cue Card....
HaHa , like that one!!biggrin.gif

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#7 2013-11-24 19:46:45

jimpy
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

i think al ferof has a massive chance to if his jumping improves.

Backed him a few weeks ago at 14/1 but 8/1 is still value!!

The owner John Hales seemed very confident yesterday.

silviniaco conti may run in the Lexus Chase.

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#8 2013-11-24 19:51:36

mrfleamans
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Think this is between Dynaste and Al Ferof...preference atm for former...think Cue Card might be better going left-handed.

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#9 2013-11-24 20:43:59

gold digger
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

It could be run on anything from heavy to good so is impossible to be confident at this stage. I have backed however Mount Benbulben 20/1 and had bits and pieces on Katenko at prices ranging from 40/1 - 120/1. I think these two could be big players if it turned in to a slog. Think you've got a fair price on Al Ferof Jimpy,have a feeling he might be more a Cheltenham/Newbury type of horse but hard to be sure and I think Dynaste is sure to be in the mix. Agree with Mr Chambertin, don't think Kempton is going to be Cue Cards cup of tea but reckon he's a big player for Gold Cup.
0

Last edited by gold digger (2013-11-24 20:50:16)

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#10 2013-11-24 21:42:51

stu3105
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Looks to be a Cracking Renewal this year,and the most open for a very long time,just hoping all of the leading candidates get to line up and would also be nice if 1 or 2 of the top irish 3 Mile Chasers were to come over and line up for this,but i very much doubt it as they will probably be kept back for the Lexus instead,which in my opinion is not as strong a contest as the King George VI Chase.                                                                             I was more than happy with the performance of Silviniaco Conti on Saturday in the Betfair and in my opinion there are many positives to be taken out of that performance and i'd expect come Boxing Day he'll be a different Horse altogether and will be much much sharper,for instance when Winning the Betfair last Year ,that Race was ran on a different Course to the 1 they raced on Saturday which worked out being a Furlong or 2 further than last years race,take that into account he had no prep run either this time round[Ran in Charlie Hall last year] before also going on to Win the Betfair Chase,add that to the fact that his usual regular Jockey [Ruby Walsh] has now left the Nicholls Team to join forces with W.P.Mullins on a regular basis,and is now being Ridden by a new partner in Noel Fehilly who will surely know more about the horse as the season develops and that will only help both horse and jockey,also if you further add the fact that he came crashing down in the Gold Cup when firmly in contention and nobody knows what would have been,i for 1 was glad at the time because my money was on Bobs Worth,don't know if silviniaco conti would of ran up the hill as strongly as bobs worth did but he would of gone close for sure,              This Race looks to have his Name on it i'd say as it ,looks tailor made for him,currently available to back at 7/1 which looks very good value and at those odds on a quality Horse he looks a real Christmas Cracker!!!                       

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#11 2013-11-24 22:04:19

rightjudgeiam
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Silviniaco has no chance of reversing placings with Dynaste round Kempton, sorry


and neither will reverse with Cue Card who, after proving he stays, is all set to explode because they can ride him with supreme confidence


he could have won 10 lengths if the had wanted, was never pushed from the turn in on Saturday, was not touched with the whip once and was not even breathing hard at the end


he is gonna destroy them, turn for home in front and bound clear like Kauto did


won't see which way he went

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#12 2013-11-24 23:21:36

jimpy
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

rightjudgeiam wrote:


Silviniaco has no chance of reversing placings with Dynaste round Kempton, sorry


and neither will reverse with Cue Card who, after proving he stays, is all set to explode because they can ride him with supreme confidence


he could have won 10 lengths if the had wanted, was never pushed from the turn in on Saturday, was not touched with the whip once and was not even breathing hard at the end


he is gonna destroy them, turn for home in front and bound clear like Kauto did


won't see which way he went
very confident, i actually backed cue card in last years King George but he was ridden badly. at 11/4 i would back cue card but on the day he will be 13/8 or something, no interest at that price.

7/2 after the race yesterday was the time to back him, wish i took it.

Last edited by jimpy (2013-11-24 23:21:58)

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#13 2013-11-25 00:28:08

wezzer91
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

jimpy wrote:


rightjudgeiam wrote:


Silviniaco has no chance of reversing placings with Dynaste round Kempton, sorry


and neither will reverse with Cue Card who, after proving he stays, is all set to explode because they can ride him with supreme confidence


he could have won 10 lengths if the had wanted, was never pushed from the turn in on Saturday, was not touched with the whip once and was not even breathing hard at the end


he is gonna destroy them, turn for home in front and bound clear like Kauto did


won't see which way he went
very confident, i actually backed cue card in last years King George but he was ridden badly. at 11/4 i would back cue card but on the day he will be 13/8 or something, no interest at that price.

7/2 after the race yesterday was the time to back him, wish i took it.
If the ground turns up very soft then i dont see why dynaste cant reverse form with cue card. Cur card had the benefit of a run on dynaste in the betfair, Dynastes most impressive performance to date was probably over this CD last year in the feltham and Cue card is unproven at the track. 

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#14 2013-11-25 14:09:53

stu3105
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

rightjudgeiam wrote:


Silviniaco has no chance of reversing placings with Dynaste round Kempton, sorry


and neither will reverse with Cue Card who, after proving he stays, is all set to explode because they can ride him with supreme confidence


he could have won 10 lengths if the had wanted, was never pushed from the turn in on Saturday, was not touched with the whip once and was not even breathing hard at the end


he is gonna destroy them, turn for home in front and bound clear like Kauto did


won't see which way he went
No need to apologise,i'm always interested in other peoples opinions whether i agree or not,in this case i'm not going to disagree with you ,not totally anyway,There's no doubt Cue Card is the one they all have to beat and there is a strong possibility that they will all find him too good on Boxing Day,was very impressive on saturday and undoubtedly deserves to be Favorite based on his performance,the first 3 from that race [Cue Card][Dynaste] and Silviniaco Conti all look the the main ones to concentrate on,finding it hard to imagine anything else being good enough to be honest,Long Run looks finished with nowadays,so looks between the 3 , i may be totally wrong but it looks too obvious to me just to assume those 3 will finish in the same pecking order that finished in the Betfair,so based on the fact the 2nd and 3rd home in betfair have now got that all important first Run out of the way,in which Cue Card badly needed his first run at Exeter,they will be much sharper to build on there 2nd and 3rd place finishes,which brings me to my prediction[ 1st Silviniaco Conti/ 2nd Dynaste/ 3rd Cue Card!! thats is just my guess to what the outcome may be,my main influences for that predicted out come are that i'm adamant Silviniaco will be twice the horse he was on Saturday,would have surely gone close in last years Gold cup if not departing late on,and i'm loving the 7yr old /French Breds trend too,which admittedly Dynaste more than qualifies on too so based on those facts i'd be silly not to have a Saver on him!! I respect Cue card hugely and would be more than happy if he were to Win and if repeating saturday's performance he will be hard to beat,but with more likely improvement to Come and at current prices Silviniaco Conti gets my vote, closely followed by Dynaste.Having said all of this there is still only 1 Horse i would want too be on for the Gold Cup this year and that is CUE CARD!!! The current 8/1 on offer looks rediculously too big,just my opinion but i much prefer him for the Gold Cup than the King George VI !! Wish you good Luck though on Boxing Day,will be a cracking Race and like Colin Tizzard said himself on Saturday,it will be Won by the Best Horse on the present Day,so whatever Wins the Race will deserve it!! Bye

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#15 2013-11-25 14:51:47

keano
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Certainly looked as if Cue Card was held on to for as long as possible in the Betfair as stamina was certainly a question mark but he allayed those fears in uncertain terms. I guess the greater issue for him in the King George is settling early which he didn't do last year.

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#16 2013-11-25 16:48:07

Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Today I have backed last years runner up CAPTAIN CHRIS each way @ 25-1 Ladbrokes,generally a 20's shot,prefers a sounder surface and ran a smasher on the heavy ground last Christmas, the ground was good at Kempton today whereas last year the corresponding meeting was run on soft,so if the high pressure lingers throughout december it could well be run on suitable decent going.
Much better on a right handed course,and was upsides Cue Card when blundering two out at Ascot last february,everything would have to drop right but he seems the forgotten horse and is overpriced at 25-1.
The injury which kept him out of saturdays Ascot race is said to be only minor,and hopefully he will line up come Boxing day.

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#17 2013-11-25 21:20:17

stu3105
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

alverton wrote:


Today I have backed last years runner up CAPTAIN CHRIS each way @ 25-1 Ladbrokes,generally a 20's shot,prefers a sounder surface and ran a smasher on the heavy ground last Christmas, the ground was good at Kempton today whereas last year the corresponding meeting was run on soft,so if the high pressure lingers throughout december it could well be run on suitable decent going.
Much better on a right handed course,and was upsides Cue Card when blundering two out at Ascot last february,everything would have to drop right but he seems the forgotten horse and is overpriced at 25-1.
The injury which kept him out of saturdays Ascot race is said to be only minor,and hopefully he will line up come Boxing day.
I agree about the 25/1 being too big  on a Horse that has more than proved himself over the years,including this very Race last year when possibly running a career best,but he will surely struggle this time around if lining up on his first run of the season,the likes of Cue Card,Dynaste,and Silviniaco Conti will be having there 2nd and 3rd starts respectively,No offence but he'll have to run the Race of his life to trouble those at the head of the betting,but having said that if there were to be an upset ,He'd be the most likely to cause one,you never know but still find it hard to envisage Captain Chris taking the honors on Boxing Day,anyway whatever happens this promises to be a cracker of a Race,hoping the Result goes my way and make this the Highlight of my Christmas.Good Luck Alverton!!                               Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste for me i thinks!!

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#18 2013-11-25 23:34:47

jimpy
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

alverton wrote:


Today I have backed last years runner up CAPTAIN CHRIS each way @ 25-1 Ladbrokes,generally a 20's shot,prefers a sounder surface and ran a smasher on the heavy ground last Christmas, the ground was good at Kempton today whereas last year the corresponding meeting was run on soft,so if the high pressure lingers throughout december it could well be run on suitable decent going.
Much better on a right handed course,and was upsides Cue Card when blundering two out at Ascot last february,everything would have to drop right but he seems the forgotten horse and is overpriced at 25-1.
The injury which kept him out of saturdays Ascot race is said to be only minor,and hopefully he will line up come Boxing day.
hope he runs for you. CC always runs a big one at Kempton so on the performance of previous years he will be in the first 3.

25/1 is overpriced , nice ticket to have alverton.

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#19 2013-11-25 23:56:55

the brigadier
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

alverton wrote:


Today I have backed last years runner up CAPTAIN CHRIS each way @ 25-1 Ladbrokes,generally a 20's shot,prefers a sounder surface and ran a smasher on the heavy ground last Christmas, the ground was good at Kempton today whereas last year the corresponding meeting was run on soft,so if the high pressure lingers throughout december it could well be run on suitable decent going.
Much better on a right handed course,and was upsides Cue Card when blundering two out at Ascot last february,everything would have to drop right but he seems the forgotten horse and is overpriced at 25-1.
The injury which kept him out of saturdays Ascot race is said to be only minor,and hopefully he will line up come Boxing day.

An interesting selection at a decent price Alverton. Horses with proven form at Kempton invariably continue to run well there. Remember Docklands Express from the early 1990s?

 

I expect Captain Chris to run well and also for Long Run to improve on two mediocre performances as he usually enjoys a Boxing Day outing at Kempton Park.

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#20 2013-11-26 00:36:23

rightjudgeiam
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

happyhammer wrote:


Dynaste ran a massive race in the Betfair yesterday, he won the Feltham really well last year and I think he'd be my pick as Cue Card's poorest run in past 2 years probably came in this race last year, there were excuses but I'm not sure I'd want to take a short price on him in case it was the track that wasn't to his liking


yeah


I've been working on this today and that was my conclusion. Cue Card has a huge chance IF he produces his best form and he might be one to bet in running if you fancy him as I do


but Dynaste looks sure to run his race, go on any going and clearly acts on the track


can't see anything else winning including Silviniaco Conti who has been behind Cue Card 3 times from 3 attempts and does not have his scope for improvement


Dynaste / Cue Card


take ya pick

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#21 2013-11-26 11:13:22

cobb-douglas
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

If only one could trust Mount Benbulben to jump well, then he'd be a great bet at 20/1. 
Showed at Punchestown that he has a serious engine when putting it all together. 
The horse needs to go right handed so you'd think that this will be his Gold Cup.  Suprised that he wasn't entered in the John Durkan so maybe he'll be going to Kempton fresh as I don't think there is any other race suitable in the interim. 

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#22 2013-11-26 16:08:56

johnny t
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

cobb-douglas wrote:


If only one could trust Mount Benbulben to jump well, then he'd be a great bet at 20/1. 
Showed at Punchestown that he has a serious engine when putting it all together. 
The horse needs to go right handed so you'd think that this will be his Gold Cup.  Suprised that he wasn't entered in the John Durkan so maybe he'll be going to Kempton fresh as I don't think there is any other race suitable in the interim. 

Like their adventurous nature in going for it, but totally agree that John Durkan would have seemed a more attainable target, especially when his best ever win was in a grade 1 at Punchestown, though they might be thinking he needs at least 3 miles these days

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#23 2013-11-26 16:47:57

stu3105
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

keano wrote:


Certainly looked as if Cue Card was held on to for as long as possible in the Betfair as stamina was certainly a question mark but he allayed those fears in uncertain terms. I guess the greater issue for him in the King George is settling early which he didn't do last year.
True,but he has improved quite a lot since last years King George VI and after Winning the Ryanair at last years Festival he is now fulfilling his true potential,Still prefer him in the Gold Cup though rather than this Race,the current 8/1 on offer is way too big now we know he stays very well,if he Wins the King George VI that 8/1 will soon be a distant memory and if he were to be just placed on Boxing Day which i personally can't see him being out of the 1st 3]i still think he will be shortened a little more for the Gold Cup as that will still be classed as a very good Run in a very open but competitive grade 1 chase by the Bookies and punter,and will also indicate a much improved horse from when running in this Race last year,so my advice to Cue card fans would be to back him more for the Gold cup  at 8/1 rather than the King George VI at much shorter odds,come March we'll be sitting pretty with a Bet on a Horse that will be going to post in the Gold Cup at least half of the current 8/1 available now,The Gold Cup looks right up his street as he always Runs a blinder at Cheltenham and this Year looks to be his year too,so if he's to ever Win a Gold Cup then this years Race has to be the time to back him i think,and strike while the iron is hot,Really can't see the likes of Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti being able to beat him at Cheltenham in March but i do feel that the King George at Kempton is more there type of Race and i think at least one of them can turn the tables with Cue Card on there Runs in the Betfair Chase now that they have both had that very important first Run under there belts,i definitely think it will be a slightly different story come Boxing Day afternoon,and i for one cannot wait0GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!

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#24 2013-11-26 17:17:09

14william88
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

Somebody has paid attention to Pricewise's weekend roundup0

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#25 2013-11-27 16:03:35

stu3105
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Re: KING GEORGE VI CHASE TRENDS 2013

14william88 wrote:


Somebody has paid attention to Pricewise's weekend roundup0
What had Pricewise said in his Column?

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