- Horse Racing Chat

Always at the races

You are not logged in.

#1 2013-12-10 18:24:37

racecaller
Administrator
Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6793

INTERNATIONAL HURDLE TRENDS 2013

The StanJames.com International Hurdle (formerly the Bula) is a grade 2 hurdle run over 2M 1F and it takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 14th December. In recent years the Greatwood Hurdle has proven a key race in finding the winner of this however surprisingly this year, only 7th placed Court Minstrel is entered in this year’s International Hurdle.

 

In 2008 the race was run at Ascot after being abandoned at Cheltenham. From a trends point of view we will focus on the 10 runnings from 2002 to 2012 (excluding 2008):

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 2-5-16

5yo: 4-3-19

6yo: 1-1-9

7yo: 2-4-13

8yo: 1-1-7

9yo+: 0-0-11

As we can see the winners’ ages have varied in the past 10 runnings.

Horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 7-9-44 which compares well to horses aged 7+ of 3-5-31.

The last 9 winners have been aged 4 to 7.

5 of 7 horses aged 4 to make the frame had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 at Cheltenham Festival (other 2 won the Ascot Hurdle or Racing Post Hurdle on previous start)

 

Weight

Horses carrying 11-8: 2-5-26

Horses carrying 11-4: 7-6-24

Horses carrying 11-0: 1-3-24

7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-4. Both winners to carry 11-8 were trained in Ireland.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 runners had finished in first 3 last time (7 won)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run in the last 35 days

9 of 10 winners had won a graded or listed hurdle

6 of last 8 winners had won a grade 1

7 of 10 winners were course and distance winners (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in Greatwood Hurdle, 2nd in Champion Hurdle & 3rd in Triumph Hurdle)

10 of 10 winners had run in at least 6 hurdles races previously 

10 of 10 winners were officially rated 148+

 

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Zarkandar): 42 (0-1-2)

Highest placed finisher from the Greatwood Hurdle: 2113611113 (6-1-10)

William Hill - Download The App Hurdle winner (The New One): 11 (2-0-2)

Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (The New One): 2 (0-1-1)

Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Court Minstrel): 55 (0-0-2)

Kingwell Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): F66 (0-0-3)

6 of 10 winners ran in Greatwood Hurdle last time, finishing 111211

3 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 100

3 of 10 winners ran in Elite Hurdle, finishing 4F1

2 of 10 winners ran in Betfair Hurdle, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 25

2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 13

2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 1B

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in the William Hill - Download The App Hurdle, finishing 11

7 of 10 winners ran at the Aintree National meeting (2 Top Novice, 2 Anniversary, 2 Aintree Hurdle and 1 Silver Cross H'cap Hurdle)

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-3-9) has trained 2 winners (2003 & 2012) & 3 placed finishers in past 10 renewals.  

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) trained Khyber Kim to win this in 2009.

Colin Tizzard’s (0-1-1) one previous runner finished 2nd in 2010.

 

Price

The favourite (7-1-12) has won 7 of the last 10 & shows a level stakes profit of 6.15 since 2002.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 to 7

- Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 35 days

- Posted at RPR of 150+ last time out

- Had previously run at least 6 times over hurdles

- Officially rated 148+

- Carrying 11-4

- Previously won a listed or graded hurdle (ideally won a grade 1)

- Course and distance winner (or placed in a grade 1 over this CD)

- Finished in first 2 in the Greatwood Hurdle

- Ran in County, Triumph or Champion Hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival

- Contested a hurdle at the 2013 Aintree Festival

- Trained by Paul Nicholls

- Favourite does well

Offline

 

#2 2013-12-10 21:25:14

eoinmc
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3658

Re: INTERNATIONAL HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Another disappointing turnout for a big race, 7 entered and looks like only 2 with a live chance

1     1212-1     The New One55     5     11-8     Nigel Twiston-Davies46         167     129     172
2     1141-2     Zarkandar21     6     11-8     Paul Nicholls79     Daryl Jacob     167     151     171
3     4-F111     Albert Hall10F     8     11-4     A Chaille-Chaille         133     —     136
4     411-87     Court Minstrel27     6     11-4     Evan Williams50         149     141     162
5     62881S     Hawkhill21     7     11-4     Tim Vaughan23         132     120     142
6     2/2110     Seabreeze D´Ho27     7     11-4     Christian Le Galliard         140     —     139
7     16-061     Jumps Road9     6     11-0     Colin Tizzard38         131     125     144

Offline

 

#3 2013-12-11 02:36:24

jimpy
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 5994

Re: INTERNATIONAL HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Shame Gemix isn't running!
Anybody know why it's not running as the trainer reported it to be on target for this race?

Offline

 

#4 2013-12-14 16:46:53

jimpy
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 5994

Re: INTERNATIONAL HURDLE TRENDS 2013

Anybody got a link for this race , missed it?

Offline

 

Board footer

Powered by PunBB
© Copyright 2002–2008 PunBB

Message to