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#1 2014-01-28 15:54:06

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
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HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

The Betfred Mobile and Levy Heroes Handicap Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 1st February. A grade 3 handicap hurdle run over 2M 6F, it was won in 2004 by the mighty Baracouda, who shouldered top weight to victory, however that was result was very much out of the norm and most winners in the past 10 renewals have carried lower weights and were far less exposed.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-4-18

6yo: 4-8-35

7yo: 2-4-33

8yo: 1-5-32

9yo: 2-1-15

10yo+: 0-1-13

7 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7. The 3 winners aged 8+ were Baracouda (multiple grade 1 winner), Chief Yeoman (runner-up in grade 1 Triumph Hurdle) and Beshabar (grade 3 winner).

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 1-7-45

Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 9-16-101

9 of 10 winners carried 10-12 or less, the one exception was Baracouda, who won this under top weight.

Top Weights: 3P17449676 (1-2-10)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 136 or higher: 1-8-44

Horses rated 125 to 135:  7-10-74

Horses rated 124 or less: 2-5-28

The last 7 winners were officially rated 125 to 135. The only winner rated higher than 135 in last 10 runnings was Baracouda (rated 170), when racing against 8 rivals, who were all racing from out of the handicap.  

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (exception 5th in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle on New Year's Day)

10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last hurdles run

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception had run just once)

7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles

9 of 10 winners had 2 or 3 previous hurdle wins

8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 3 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 8 & 9 h’cap hurdles)

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles

7 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 2 in a grade 1)

4 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception placed in handicap hurdles worth 16K+ over 2M 4F+ on both runs that season)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdler

6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 hurdle

10 of 10 winners had won a hurdle with 10 or more runners

7 of 10 winners began career in a NH race (1 exception rated 88 on flat and other 2 had run on flat in France)

 

Other Races

Lanzarote Hurdle winner (Saphir Du Rheu): 513 (1-1-3)

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Saphir Du Rheu): 1 (1-0-1)

Auriga Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Party Rock): 6 (0-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle, finishing P0

2 of 10 winners ran in Lanzarote Hurdle, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 5F Uttoxeter Novice hurdle earlier that season

2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 1F Exeter Novice hurdle during the previous calendar year

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-2-8) has saddled 3 winners & 2 places from 8 runners in past 10 renewals.

Philip Hobbs (2-3-6) won this in 2005 and also trained the winner and 4th last year.

Venetia Williams (1-1-10) trained the winner in 2009.

 

Racing Tactics

5 of 10 winners were held up

5 of 10 winners tracked leaders

 

Price

7 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting

7 of last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter though 2 of last 3 winners were sent off 10/1 & 16/1.

Favourites (4-1-10) have won 4 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.91.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 renewals you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7 (or a previous graded hurdle winner)

- Finished in first 4 last time

- Posted an RPR of 125+ last time out

- Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs

- Run 2 to 4 times this season

- Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (gaining 2 or 3 wins)

- Run in 3 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 2 or less)

- First or Second season hurdler (novices do well)

- Carrying 10-12 or less

- Officially rated 125 to 135

- Won a hurdles race with 10+ runners

- Had first ever start in a point to point, bumper or hurdle (or on flat in France)

- Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (ideally won or placed in a class 1)

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Philip Hobbs

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#2 2014-01-28 18:24:18

buckeyebatter
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Join Date: 2013-06-23
Posts: 34

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Appears to point to Black River

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#3 2014-01-29 07:47:02

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3656

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Nicholls record is very strong so Black River must have a big chance

1     0-5411    Saphir Du Rheu21      5    11-12    Paul Nicholls46         158    137    159
2     P-5P25    Quartz De Thaix7      10    11-1    Venetia Williams53    Aidan Coleman     147    113    158
3     17726P    Party Rock21    7    10-11    Jennie Candlish40    Sean Quinlan     143    129    162
4     113/P2    Grand Vision21      8    10-10    Colin Tizzard33         142    87    160
5     2/12O-    Fingal Bay421      8    10-10    Philip Hobbs38    Richard Johnson     142    —    —
6     025322    Pateese35      9    10-7    Philip Hobbs38         139    158    166
7     5-2115    Kaki De La Pree35    7    10-6    Tom Symonds80    Felix De Giles     138    141    157
8     11-F4    Black River35    5    10-0    Paul Nicholls46    Daryl Jacob     132    77    159
9     F4-312    Shimla Dawn21    6    9-13    Tim Walford33         131    115    159
10     3O532    Kilmurvy16    6    9-7    Jeremy Scott100         125    144    153
11     6-2022    Dawn Twister8    7    9-4    Lucy Wadham75         122    132    151
12     6-2621    Strollawaynow18    7    9-4    David Arbuthnot         122    132    151
13    4-P17P    Colebrooke9      6    9-2    Renee Robeson67    Joshua Moore3     120    —    —

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#4 2014-01-29 09:48:16

tdearling
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Join Date: 2014-01-15
Posts: 31

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

For me I fancy Grand Vision, Shimla Dawn, Dawn Twister and yes, Black River.

 

Anyone know where we can get prices from?

Last edited by tdearling (2014-01-29 09:49:28)

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#5 2014-01-29 15:47:36

leo
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Join Date: 2014-01-03
Posts: 84

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Fingal Bay looks absolutely thrown in off 142 here.
He's won first time out every season so he might not need the run.
Phillip Hobbs has a good record in the race also.
His beating of Simonsig a few years back is head and shoulders above what any of these have accomplished.
Fancy this horse strongly.

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#6 2014-01-29 21:39:29

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1056

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

leo wrote:


Fingal Bay looks absolutely thrown in off 142 here.
He's won first time out every season so he might not need the run.
Phillip Hobbs has a good record in the race also.
His beating of Simonsig a few years back is head and shoulders above what any of these have accomplished.
Fancy this horse strongly.
Me too!! i'm thinking this Race could be a prep Run for something like the Coral Cup maybe? 2 miles 5 around Cheltenham should be his cup of tea too,that's if he's entered for the Race of course,just my hunch that's all,i know Philip Hobbs has a decent record in that Race too,would look eye catching if that were to be the case,i know that Hobbs said originally that he was thinking of a World Hurdle entry but has since stated that will not be happening so i'm guessing 1 of the H'caps,unless this is just being used as a ploy ,protecting his Mark over Fences instead,hobbs is up to something with Fingal Bay,just a case of what!! definitely interesting and worth keeping an eye open for any Cheltenham entries!!

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#7 2014-01-30 10:55:55

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Johnson already booked on Fingal Bay at 5-day stage is encouraging too, if he retains the ability he showed as a novice then will be v hard to beat

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#8 2014-01-30 16:03:31

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1056

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Does not look a typical hot renewal this year.lacks strength and depth in my opinion,2 potential stars in here and as for the rest they all look a grade lower than the other 2, The pair to concentrate on are Saphir Du Rheu and Fingal Bay!! Will be amazed if not 1 of these 2 were to Win this,the first named looks a fast improving type in which the H'capper may not yet have the measure of him and he could progress a lot further,would not have to improve very much at all to Win this judging by his Win in the Lanzarote.                                                                                                                                                                   As for Fingal Bay,he's been off for 421 Days now,but his Hobbs will have him as fit as he possibly can get him,will improve loads for the Run obviously you would think,however he was mixing it with the very best Novices 2 Seasons ago over Hurdles and was never far away at the finish and was never out of the first 2,had a very brief spell over Fences which did not seem to bring out the best in him and has been sidelined due to those exertions,will be fresh and raring to go and he receives quite a lot of weight from the very likely Favorite,A Rating of just 142 comparing that to the ability and Form he showed as a Novice could well be very lenient in my view and he looks to be a big player in this Race and should put down the biggest challenge too Saphir Du Rheu. Looks a 2 Horse Race to me,just can't see anything past this pair!! Anybody agree or Disagree? ? Good Luck!!

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#9 2014-01-30 17:11:10

jimpy
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Join Date: 2010-07-08
Posts: 5952

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

stu if you cut down the length of your posts more people will read them.

stu remember time is money!!

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#10 2014-01-30 17:55:30

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1056

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

jimpy wrote:


stu if you cut down the length of your posts more people will read them.

stu remember time is money!!
very true Jimpy,though that was a small write up lol 

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#11 2014-01-30 18:44:58

leo
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Join Date: 2014-01-03
Posts: 84

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

No chance this race will be on I'd say.
Looking very doubtful with the forecast for Friday.

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#12 2014-01-31 12:16:56

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3656

Re: HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2014

leo wrote:


No chance this race will be on I'd say.
Looking very doubtful with the forecast for Friday.

Yep, they've changed it to an all chase card for Sat, so this race definitely won't be on, though meeting may also not go ahead at all

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