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#1 2014-02-11 01:22:14

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
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HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

The Betfred Grand National Trial is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 15th February. It can often provide clues for the different Grand Nationals run later in the season and previous form in other Nationals is often a good guide to finding the winner of this.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-2

7yo: 2-6-19

8yo: 2-8-36

9yo: 3-4-27

10yo: 1-1-24

11yo+: 2-3-20

12yo+: 0-1-11

Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-18-84

Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-5-55

All 3 winners aged 10+ finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap chase worth 15K+ last time.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-4-20

Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-4-33

Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 3-8-40

Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 4-7-38

Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-7

Not a huge amount to go on with the weights, only 2 horses managed to carry over 11-0 to victory, both carried top weight.  

Top Weight: 3PFPP1321P2P (2-4-12) has gained 3 wins and 4 places since 2003.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 147 to 158: 1-4-24

Horses rated 135 to 146: 6-10-54

Horses rated 118 to 134: 3-9-61

5 of last 6 winners were all officially rated 138 to 149.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (exception was Silver By Nature winning it for a 2nd year)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 143+ on previous start

10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+

10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases (exception had yet to win one)

7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (3 exceptions had won a class 3 chase)

8 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 17K+ (1 exception twice 2nd in Welsh National last time & other won Sussex National on previous run)

8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (1 exception won a grade 2 novice chase last time& other won class 3 Sussex National)

3 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (5 of other 7 were having first course start)

 

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Well Refreshed): 21P (1-1-3)

That's season's Welsh National winner: 51P33 (1-2-5)

Highest placed finisher from that season's Welsh National: 1P5318P233 (2-4-10)

Previous season's Welsh National winner (Monbeg Dude): 23 (0-2-2)

Peter Marsh Chase winner (Wychwood Brook): 38P2 (0-2-4)

Scottish National winner (Godsmejudge): 8 (0-0-1)

Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 7 (0-0-1)

Unbeatable In-Running Value with Betfair Handicap Chase winner (Sydney Paget): P (0-0-1)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 51272

2 of 10 winners ran in Sussex National, finishing 41

2 of 10 winners ran in the Classic Chase, finishing 27

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61

8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Surrey, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (1 exception was a novice chaser and the other won the Grand Sefton on previous start)

 

Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently from fifth fence

 

Trainers

Lucinda Russell (2-0-3) has won 2 of the last 4 renewals with Silver By Nature.

Gary Moore (1-0-1) won this last year with Well Refreshed while Michael Scudamore (1-0-2) won it back in 2007 with Heltornic.

Venetia Williams (0-3-10) & Paul Nicholls (0-3-11) have each saddled 3 placed finishers.

Alan King (0-2-7) has trained 2 placed horses in past 10 years.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-12) last won this in 2001 but only 1 of his 12 runners in past 10 years have made the places, while David Pipe (0-1-4) has also saddled 1 placed runner.

None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.

 

Jockeys

It has paid to use a rider with an allowance in this race as in 9 of the past 10 runnings, 1 of the first 2 home were ridden by a claimer:

Claiming riders: 4-10-44

Non-claiming riders: 6-13-97

 

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 18/1

Favourites (2-3-12) had a poor record prior to 2012 but have now won the last 2, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50 over past 10 years.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7 to 9 (or finished in first 2 in h’cap chase worth 15K+ last time)

- Top weight has a fair record

- Officially rated 138 to 149

- Won or placed last time out

- Posted an RPR of 143 or higher last time

- Posted career high RPR at left-handed track

- Contested a class 2 handicap chase over 3M+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts

- Won over 2M 7F or further

- Won 2 to 4 times over fences

- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning 1 to 3)

- Course winner (or having first run here)

- Previously finished in first 2 in a Surrey, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National

- Finished in first 5 in Welsh National this season

- Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Lucinda Russell

- Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance

Last edited by racecaller (2014-02-13 01:12:44)

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#2 2014-02-11 15:51:49

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

18 entered:

1     10-581    Across The Bay47      10    11-12    Donald McCain64         149    126    154
2     131-5P    Godsmejudge70    8    11-11    Alan King53         148    96    156
3     3P-341    Monbeg Dude64      9    11-9    Michael Scudamore         146    108    156
4     124-7    Our Father77      8    11-8    David Pipe81         145    118    150
5     2/509P    Burton Port45    10    11-8    Jonjo O´Neill60         145    79    121
6     12P-42    Hawkes Point49    9    11-6    Paul Nicholls50    Ryan Mahon     143    142    154
7     7-2F11    Wychwoods Brook28      8    11-5    Evan Williams56         142    134    158
8     1P-03P    Well Refreshed49      10    11-4    Gary Moore50    Joshua Moore3     141    105    160
9     75-1P5    Sydney Paget28      7    11-2    Donald McCain64         139    128    161
10     0-2553    Merry King28    7    11-2    Jonjo O´Neill60    Richie McLernon     139    141    158
11     917-54    Soll14    9    11-1    Jo Hughes    Mark Grant     138    129    157
12     16P-1P    Nuts N Bolts51      8    11-1    Lucinda Russell63    Peter Buchanan     138    103    160
13     P-4624    Wellforth37    10    10-9    Barry Brennan         132    112    154
14     U1U34    Le Reve39    6    10-8    Lucy Wadham50         131    128    155
15     212PP-    Rigadin De Beauchene301      9    10-8    Venetia Williams61         131    99    161
16     7-6P71    Emperor´s Choice14 5x    7    10-8    Venetia Williams61         131    135    160
17     5-2024    Loch Ba35    8    10-7    Mick Channon100    Mr H A A Bannister7     130    145    161
18     14-2PP    Red Rocco30    7    10-4    Nigel Twiston-Davies38         127    —    160

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#3 2014-02-11 22:39:48

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

really fancy Merry King 

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#4 2014-02-12 18:00:22

buckeyebatter
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Join Date: 2013-06-23
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

Wychwoods Brook for me, only up 6 lbs and still unexposed over 3 miles

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#5 2014-02-12 19:23:36

rightjudgeiam
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

it's 3 miles 5 ^^



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#6 2014-02-12 19:34:02

stu3105
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

 I respect Merry King's chances in this contest as he has run some very respectable Races this year in some very go od Staying Chases,However my preference is for Hawkes Point, His record on Heavy ground is very good as his Form figures read 1 1 2 2 when the mud is flying,so given the current conditions he should be there or there abouts i would think.                                                                                                                                              Hawkes point is also having his first Race at Haydock which is actually classed as a positive on the Trends,he recorded at RPR of 143 last time out, 7-9 yr olds are the best Winning Age group in this contest ,He is a 9 yr old,Also most interestingly is that 5/10 Winners ran in the Welsh National on thee most recent start, Finishing 51272 , Hawkes Point finished 2nd in that Race last time the same as 2 previous Winners had.                                                                                                                                                         Based on all the facts!!                                                                                                      Has to be Hawkes point for me!                                                                                          I'll be having a substantial bet on this fella,that's for sure!                                                 I'm pretty confident regarding this one's chances as i have been in very good Form recently and seem to be finding Winners for Fun just lately,i'm not complaining though! Good Luck Everybody!          

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#7 2014-02-12 23:58:30

rightjudgeiam
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

actually really difficult to make a play here but one of these should win


Across The Bay
Monbeg Dude
Hawkes Point
Wychwoods Brook
Merry King

EDIT: SCRUB ALL THAT

LOCH BA IS CHUCKED IN


Last edited by rightjudgeiam (2014-02-13 00:50:53)

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#8 2014-02-13 07:02:50

antypeak
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Join Date: 2014-02-13
Posts: 2

Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

Difficult to pick one...


Across The Bay
Monbeg Dude
Hawkes Point
Wychwoods Brook
Merry King


Last edited by antypeak (2014-02-13 07:03:21)

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#9 2014-02-13 08:07:39

dodgermac
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Join Date: 2012-11-05
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

Just going off the stats, there are 2 obvious candidates:


Monbeg Dude and Wychwoods Brook. There must be a chance that Wychwoods will be ridden by a claimer which will make it even more appealing.

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#10 2014-02-13 10:35:54

billyb
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Join Date: 2008-03-28
Posts: 1510

Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

rightjudgeiam wrote:


actually really difficult to make a play here but one of these should win


Across The Bay
Monbeg Dude
Hawkes Point
Wychwoods Brook
Merry King

EDIT: SCRUB ALL THAT

LOCH BA IS CHUCKED IN



Loch Ba is my fancy too, would have been much closer in the Classic Chase last time but for clattering one fence and he's now 2lbs below the mark off which he was 2nd in the Tommy Whittle here in December. Harry Bannister rode him that day and is on again, 12/1 looks a good bet to me

Last edited by billyb (2014-02-13 10:36:38)

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#11 2014-02-13 11:22:05

tdearling
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Join Date: 2014-01-15
Posts: 27

Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

I cannot rule out Loch Ba, but my fancies are:


Well Refreshed to win it again for second year, Wychwoods Brook (just fits all the trends), Hawkes Point, just think Nicholls will be wanting this to spark alight the yard ready for Cheltenham, get some buzz going!


 


Other two would be Across The Bay and Monbeg Dude. Not sure why I am not keen on Monbeg Dude, as he was 19lengths behind Well Refreshed giving away 9pounds when they met last year, and this year he is still giving away 8 pounds (after Joshua Moore claims his 3). Just feel the winner will be under 12/1 (narrows it down to about 5).


 


 


 

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#12 2014-02-13 22:31:37

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
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Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

tdearling wrote:


I cannot rule out Loch Ba, but my fancies are:


Well Refreshed to win it again for second year, Wychwoods Brook (just fits all the trends), Hawkes Point, just think Nicholls will be wanting this to spark alight the yard ready for Cheltenham, get some buzz going!


 


Other two would be Across The Bay and Monbeg Dude. Not sure why I am not keen on Monbeg Dude, as he was 19lengths behind Well Refreshed giving away 9pounds when they met last year, and this year he is still giving away 8 pounds (after Joshua Moore claims his 3). Just feel the winner will be under 12/1 (narrows it down to about 5).


 


 


 

Iv'e got this down to 3                                                                                                             Hawkes Point / Merry King / Wychwoods's Brook!!                                                    As i stated yesterday my my personal preference is for Hawkes Point, However i now feel this may not as clear cut as i first thought, Reason being Hawkes Point has a lot more weight to carry this time than what he had on his back in the Welsh National,a whopping 16lb more to be precise,it will all depend on whether he can overcome that and put up a very similar performance as when only missing out by a short Head if that in the Welsh National last time,if he can there should be no reason why Merry King should reverse the Form with him this time around either,but you never know.                                                                                                                                                                    As for Merry King he hast just a few lengths to make up with Wychwood's Brook and he should imo be able too reverse that form over this further distance which he has ran over before when 5th in the Welsh National,he's effectively only giving Wychwood's brook 4 lengths this time rather than the 10 ib he had to give away last time,think he can get the better of the arguement this time.                                                                                                                                                                                                      Wychwood's Brook will be hard to keep out of this first 3 places i feel,he's clearly thriving at the moment,however i shall take him on for Win purposes due to having to carry an extra 18lb this time even taking into account his Riders 3lb claim,also the extra 4 Furlongs or so could well prove a stumbling block too in this company, Still think he'll Run a big Race though and pick up some Prize Money.                                                                                        MY PREDICTION!!                                                                Hawkes Point 1st /Merry King 2nd /Wychwood's Brook 3rd !!

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#13 2014-02-14 22:26:32

ryanair
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Join Date: 2014-01-26
Posts: 20

Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

Any horse that has been placed in one of the nationals which are ran up and down the country will do for me. 

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#14 2014-02-15 00:31:26

Re: HAYDOCK GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2014

Nuts N Bolts has won over the CD and loves heavy ground.Lucinda Russell has a good record in the race, though form of her yard is a concern

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