The Betfred Eider Handicap Chase, which takes place at Newcastle on Saturday 22nd February, is run over a marathon trip of 4M 1F and is one of the highlight of Newcastle’s national hunt season. In 2008 Comply Or Die won it en route to bagging the Grand National. Irish-trained raider demand respect, having taken the prize 3 times in last 11 years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2000-2012):
Horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 7-14-74
Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-10-76, though all 3 of their wins came on heavy ground. Older chasers seem more able to handle really testing conditions, so take the going into consideration when considering whether to favour older or younger horses.
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 9-10-54
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 1-14-96
Clearly horses carrying 11-0+ are preferred having won the last 9 renewals
Top Weight: 6P31P4P11P5PF (3-2-13) have accounted for 3 of the last 7 winners.
Horses rated 123 or higher: 9-10-71
Horses rated 122 or lower: 1-14-79
The last 9 winners have been officially rated 123 or higher and 6 of the last 7 winners were rated 131 to 139
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 30 days
5 of 10 winners won on one of their last two starts (3 of 5 exceptions finishing 2nd last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 14K+
10 of 10 winners had fallen/unseated no more than once (8 had never fallen over fences)
0 from 10 winners had won at the track (only 3 had previously run at Newcastle)
All 10 winners were having their first start in the race.
North Yorkshire Grand National winner (Sun Cloud): 152 (1-1-3)
Scottish Borders National winner (Royale Knight): P (0-0-1)
Betfred Masters Chase winner (Relax): 5 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Novice Handicap Chase, finishing P1
2 of 10 winners had run in the previous Scottish National, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners had run in the Becher Chase, finishing F4
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Batterstown Handicap Chase, finishing 32
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
4 of 10 winners were held up
David Pipe (1-0-2) trained Comply Or Die to win this in 2008 en route to Aintree and Venetia Williams (1-0-2) won this in 2007.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners makes the frame since 2000.
Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-1) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-3) have both trained the runner-up in past 10 runnings.
Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have won 3 of the last 11 renewals, including last renewal in 2012.
8 of 10 winners came from the first 6 in the betting and were 11/1 or shorter
Companero won the race at 16/1 in 2011, though it was a slightly freak result owing to the very soft ground, in which only 3 finished.
Favourites (2-4-11) have gained 2 wins in past 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.25.
Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9, though respect horses aged 10+ on heavy ground
- Carrying 11-0+ (top weight does well)
- Officially rated 123 or higher (ideally rated 131 to 139)
- Finished in the first 4 on last start in past 30 days
- Won one of last two starts
- Run in no more than 11 handicap chases
- Won over 3M 1F+
- Won a class 3 or higher chase worth 14K+
- Having first run in an Eider Chase
- Ran in a chase at 2013 Scottish National meeting
- Placed in Batterstown Handicap Chase
- Trained by David Pipe, Venetia Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies or in Ireland