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#1 2014-02-17 20:45:41

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6764

EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

The Betfred Eider Handicap Chase, which takes place at Newcastle on Saturday 22nd February, is run over a marathon trip of 4M 1F and is one of the highlight of Newcastle’s national hunt season. In 2008 Comply Or Die won it en route to bagging the Grand National. Irish-trained raider demand respect, having taken the prize 3 times in last 11 years.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2000-2012):

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-1-1

7yo: 1-3-12

8yo: 3-4-24

9yo: 3-6-37

10yo: 2-6-44

11yo+: 1-2-18

12yo+: 0-2-14

Horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 7-14-74

Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-10-76, though all 3 of their wins came on heavy ground. Older chasers seem more able to handle really testing conditions, so take the going into consideration when considering whether to favour older or younger horses.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 9-10-54

Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 1-14-96

Clearly horses carrying 11-0+ are preferred having won the last 9 renewals

Top Weight: 6P31P4P11P5PF (3-2-13) have accounted for 3 of the last 7 winners.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 123 or higher: 9-10-71

Horses rated 122 or lower: 1-14-79

The last 9 winners have been officially rated 123 or higher and 6 of the last 7 winners were rated 131 to 139

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out

9 of 10 winners had run in the last 30 days

5 of 10 winners won on one of their last two starts (3 of 5 exceptions finishing 2nd last time out)

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+

10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase

7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 14K+

10 of 10 winners had fallen/unseated no more than once (8 had never fallen over fences)

0 from 10 winners had won at the track (only 3 had previously run at Newcastle)

All 10 winners were having their first start in the race.

 

Other Races

North Yorkshire Grand National winner (Sun Cloud): 152 (1-1-3)

Scottish Borders National winner (Royale Knight): P (0-0-1)

Betfred Masters Chase winner (Relax): 5 (0-0-1) 

2 of 10 winners ran in Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Novice Handicap Chase, finishing P1

2 of 10 winners had run in the previous Scottish National, finishing 70

2 of 10 winners had run in the Becher Chase, finishing F4

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Batterstown Handicap Chase, finishing 32

 

Racecourse Tactics

6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently

4 of 10 winners were held up

 

Trainers

David Pipe (1-0-2) trained Comply Or Die to win this in 2008 en route to Aintree and Venetia Williams (1-0-2) won this in 2007.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners makes the frame since 2000.

Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-1) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-3) have both trained the runner-up in past 10 runnings.

Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have won 3 of the last 11 renewals, including last renewal in 2012.  

 

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 6 in the betting and were 11/1 or shorter

Companero won the race at 16/1 in 2011, though it was a slightly freak result owing to the very soft ground, in which only 3 finished.

Favourites (2-4-11) have gained 2 wins in past 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.25.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 9, though respect horses aged 10+ on heavy ground

- Carrying 11-0+ (top weight does well)

- Officially rated 123 or higher (ideally rated 131 to 139)

- Finished in the first 4 on last start in past 30 days

- Won one of last two starts

- Run in no more than 11 handicap chases

- Won over 3M 1F+

- Won a class 3 or higher chase worth 14K+

- Having first run in an Eider Chase

- Ran in a chase at 2013 Scottish National meeting

- Placed in Batterstown Handicap Chase

- Trained by David Pipe, Venetia Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies or in Ireland

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#2 2014-02-18 12:28:44

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3656

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

Entries for this:

1     25P434    Junior21      11    11-12    David Pipe63         145    123    155
2     1P1P-P    Master Overseer42      11    11-10    David Pipe63         143    —    —
3     P-P151    Relax21    9    11-6    Venetia Williams40         139    112    150
4     U0F311    Sun Cloud44    7    11-2    Malcolm Jefferson50    Brian Hughes     135    130    152
5     03-99P    Wyck Hill56    10    11-0    David Bridgwater67         133    142    160
6     10-617    Chavoy7    9    10-11    Rebecca Menzies    Tony Kelly3     130    —    —
7     61111    Tutchec38      7    10-11    Nicky Richards67    Brian Harding     130    129    152
8     124328    Seven Woods29    8    10-9    Tom George33    Alain Cawley     128    133    149
9     1F313    Financial Climate38      7    10-7    Oliver Sherwood50    Thomas Garner5     126    138    152
10     1-3114    Swatow Typhoon27      7    10-5    Donald McCain33         124    78    158
11     1P-3P6    Safran De Cotte42    8    10-3    Henry Daly100         122    111    156
12     2-623    Smoking Aces21    10    10-3    Jonjo O´Neill35         122    132    156
13     1-U4P3    Ballypatrick52    8    10-3    Mick Channon    Dominic Elsworth     122    131    155
14     227913    Royale Knight42    8    10-3    Dr Richard Newland         122    123    154
15     P078P    Tarquinius30    11    10-1    Gordon Elliott59         120    124    137
16     110-5P    Rapidolyte De Ladalka71    9    10-1    Simon Shirley-Beavan    Barry Keniry     120    114    157
17     4/0711    Wood Yer32    8    9-13    Nigel Twiston-Davies31         118    143    151
18     55-754    Our Island52    9    9-12    Tim Vaughan44         117    129    163
19     P-4142    7 Samstown37      7    9-11    Alistair Whillans67         116    132    148
20     F-3313    6 The Friary69    7    9-9    Lucinda Russell14         114    107    145
21     P-2121    5 Presented30      7    9-6    Brian Ellison60         111    120    142
22     1-P464    4 Mister Philson17    9    9-2    S R B Crawford100         107    107    144
23     P4323    3 War On49    7    9-2    Chris Grant80         107    104    146
24     74-445    2 Mortimers Cross17    13    9-2    John Needham         107    111    141
25     2-5685    1 Boris The Blade51      12    7-8    Tina Jackson         85    118    131

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#3 2014-02-18 23:40:03

rxxixd
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Join Date: 2013-12-30
Posts: 209

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

My 4 against the field just now:-

Relax

Junior

Wyck Hill

Financial Climate

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#4 2014-02-19 12:56:25

burnsy
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Join Date: 2008-11-06
Posts: 1735

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

Not sure if he's going to run but Junior at 20/1 would look big if a certain starter. Won on only previous run at the track and top weights have a good record in this. Runs off lowest chase mark since he won at Cheltenham 2011

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#5 2014-02-21 13:26:49

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3656

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

16 declared but odds on there'll be at least 1 nr

1     25P434    Junior21 b      11    11-12    David Pipe61    Mikey Ennis7     145    123    155
2     P-P151    Relax21    9    11-6    Venetia Williams46    Callum Whillans5     139    112    150
3     U0F311    Sun Cloud44    7    11-2    Malcolm Jefferson60    Brian Hughes     135    130    152
4     03-99P    Wyck Hill56 t    10    11-0    David Bridgwater50    Tom Scudamore     133    142    160
5     10-617    Chavoy7 t    9    10-11    Rebecca Menzies    Tony Kelly3     130    —    —
6     124328    Seven Woods29 t    8    10-9    Tom George20    Alain Cawley     128    133    149
7     1F313    Financial Climate38      7    10-7    Oliver Sherwood44    Thomas Garner5     126    138    152
8     1-3114    Swatow Typhoon27 b1     7    10-5    Donald McCain35    Brian Harding     124    78    158
9     1P-3P6    Safran De Cotte42    8    10-3    Henry Daly100    Jake Greenall3     122    111    156
10     2-623    Smoking Aces21 b    10    10-3    Jonjo O´Neill40    Maurice Linehan5     122    132    156
11     1-U4P3    Ballypatrick52    8    10-3    Mick Channon    Gavin Sheehan3     122    131    155
12     227913    Royale Knight42    8    10-3    Dr Richard Newland    Joshua Moore3     122    123    154
13     P078P    Tarquinius30 tp    11    10-1    Gordon Elliott59    Wilson Renwick     120    124    137
14     55-754    Our Island52 p    9    10-0    Tim Vaughan47    Dougie Costello     117    129    163
15     P-2121    Presented30 p      7    10-0    Brian Ellison64         111    120    142
16     P4323    War On49    7    10-0    Chris Grant71    Diarmuid O'Regan7     107    104    146

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#6 2014-02-21 16:56:02

cobb-douglas
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Join Date: 2010-10-02
Posts: 1089

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

Smoking Aces as endless stamina if he could be trusted to jump well enough to stay in touch through the first 3 miles or so, happy to see Linihan claiming off him as well.

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#7 2014-02-21 20:44:54

thetimelord
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Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

Liked Wyck Hil @ 20s and possibly still worth a go E/W @ 14s

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#8 2014-02-21 21:29:47

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 381

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

have backed JUNIOR

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#9 2014-02-21 23:32:07

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1054

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

burnsy wrote:


Not sure if he's going to run but Junior at 20/1 would look big if a certain starter. Won on only previous run at the track and top weights have a good record in this. Runs off lowest chase mark since he won at Cheltenham 2011
 I liked him too Burnsy until i read through the Trends properly,If you read them ,you will see that actually having Won at Newcastle in the past [even if only Won once] is a negative ,No Winner of this Race has ever come back to the Track to Win this, as strange as it may seem, Also another put off is the fact that he has had well over 11 Chase starts,Other than those 2 things ,he seemed to look like the Winner,However i have now opted for Smoking Ace, All the past Winners of this that were 10 Yr's old or above Won this when the Ground had Heavy in the description, He had a nice prep last time,he's on a very nice Weight, He's top Rated,and has a very eligible young Rider on board too [ Maurice Linehan] who is also Claiming 5lb,He also Won the Batterstown chase which has been classed as a good trial for this Race,as at least 2 Winners had Won that particular Race before going on to Victory here,He's no longer trained in Ireland as he was when he Won the Batterstown,which most of the previous Irish Winners had also Won,not had much racing over the past 2 seasons but looks as though he's now starting to get his act together and a return to Winning ways looks imminent,even if this turned out not to be the Day. Good luck Burnsy!

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#10 2014-02-22 00:32:06

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 381

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

Don't think you are reading the stats right


the last 9 all carried 11 stone plus
3 top weights have won
first run in the Eider, not at Newcastle as only 3 of the last 10 had even run at Newcastle
David Pipe 1 winner from two runners, also a top weight
last 9 winners all rated 123 or higher


based on these trends Junior is far more likely than Smoking Aces



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#11 2014-02-22 13:01:58

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

Venetia Williams has been doing really well in these big weekend races on the terrible ground so Relax must be respected in this

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#12 2014-02-22 22:00:36

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1054

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

rightjudgeiam wrote:


Don't think you are reading the stats right


the last 9 all carried 11 stone plus
3 top weights have won
first run in the Eider, not at Newcastle as only 3 of the last 10 had even run at Newcastle
David Pipe 1 winner from two runners, also a top weight
last 9 winners all rated 123 or higher


based on these trends Junior is far more likely than Smoking Aces



my reason for selecting Smoking aces was that i thought he may be a bit underated by the Handicapper due to being lightly raced over the past few seasons and having mainly raced over in Ireland, I was nearly right as he ran so very well, Just not quite good enough on the day.                                                                                                                               As for Junior, He ran very well for a long way, but that trend i stated about having Won 1 Race at Newcastle in the past is true ,does state that on trends if reading carefully is true.

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#13 2014-02-22 22:06:44

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 381

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

10th straight year winner carried at least 11 stone

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#14 2014-02-22 22:13:46

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1054

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

rightjudgeiam wrote:


Don't think you are reading the stats right


the last 9 all carried 11 stone plus
3 top weights have won
first run in the Eider, not at Newcastle as only 3 of the last 10 had even run at Newcastle
David Pipe 1 winner from two runners, also a top weight
last 9 winners all rated 123 or higher


based on these trends Junior is far more likely than Smoking Aces



0-10 Previous Winners has Won at the Track/ Only 3 Winners had ever had a Race at Newcastle before [ but never Won] before going on to victory in this Race!!                                                                                                                                                                Sorry Mate,but think you were the 1 who read wrongly this time if being honest!                                Not that i Backed the Winner,but i did at least get my Money back ,So i'm happy enough with that!

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#15 2014-02-25 15:18:25

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 381

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

a sample of 3 is not worth paying any attention to 

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#16 2014-02-25 16:59:32

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1054

Re: EIDER CHASE TRENDS 2014

rightjudgeiam wrote:


a sample of 3 is not worth paying any attention to 
Fair point!! Shit News Regarding Cue Card Mate, so glad i had the option of NRNB though! How about yourself?

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