Forgot password?

- Horse Racing Chat

Always at the races

You are not logged in.

#1 2013-12-15 01:50:23

racecaller
Administrator
Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6670

CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Saturday 28th December. It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina. 

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

 

Age (for age purposes, assume 2010-11 & 2012-13 renewals were run in 2010 & 2012)

5yo: 0-1-3

6yo: 2-4-15

7yo: 5-5-42

8yo: 2-9-42

9yo: 1-6-36

10yo: 0-4-29

11yo+: 0-0-11

9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 7-10-60, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 3-19-118.

Horses aged 10+ have a very poor record having failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years and gaining just 4 places from 40 runners.

 

Breeding

French bred: 5-10-44

Irish bred: 4-14-95

GB bred: 1-5-36

USA bred: 0-0-3

Last 8 years French breds have filled 14 of 32 places from less than 26.5% of the total runners

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-58

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-17-120

No strong trend on weights.

Top weight: PF3P2377F7 (0-3-10)

Of 13 horses carrying a penalty that were racing from inside the handicap 8 finished in the first 5

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 151 to 164: 1-3-20

Horses rated 135 to 150: 5-16-87

Horses rated 121 to 134: 4-10-71

There has been a shift in the past 6 years on the trend for official ratings.

From 2001 to 2005 all 5 winners were rated below 142 and only 5 of 18 places were filled by horses rated 142+.

From 2006 to 2012 4 of 7 winners were rated 142+ and 13 of 28 placed finishers were rated 142 or higher.

Since 2006:

Horses rated 142 or higher: 4-9-47

Horses rated 141 or lower: 3-12-82

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (5 won)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further

7 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (3 exceptions were having their first course start)

8 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases prior to this

8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chasers)

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded chase but won Becher Chase on last run)

5 of last 7 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F handicap hurdle on 1 of previous 2 runs

 

Other races

Towtown Novice Chase winner (Goulanes): 1 (1-0-1)

Betfred Mobile Lotto Novices' Chase winner (Rocky Creek): 16 (1-0-2)

Unbeatable In-Running Value With Betfair H’cap Chase winner (Sydney Paget): 3 (0-1-1)

ATR Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 2F (0-1-2)

Previous year's Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase winner (Highland Lodge): 26 (0-1-2)

Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Well Refreshed): 0U7P (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 41P

3 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 843

2 of 10 winners ran in the Towtown Novice Chase, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 64

2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Grand National, finishing 60

2 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase, finishing F1

2 of 10 winners ran in Newbury Pertemps Qualifier H'cap Hurdle, finishing 27

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when in with a big chance and other won a 3M 4F grade 3 handicap on previous start)

Clearly form in a prestigious chase over 3M 2F or further is essential.

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-5-19) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 10 years.

Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-6) has also won the race twice since 2002 & saddled 33/1 placed finisher last year.

Alan King (1-3-9) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-12) have each saddled the winner and multiple placed finishers in the past 10 years.

Richard Lee (1-1-4), Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) and Jim Dreaper (1-0-1) have also all won the race in the past 10 years.

Lucinda Russell (0-2-4) and Venetia Williams (0-2-7) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers in past 10 renewals.   

Irish trained runners (1-2-10) had not won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.

 

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners raced prominently or in midfield

 

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter

Dream Alliance at 20/1 was the longest priced winner in the past 10 years.

The favourite (1-4-11) has won just 1 of last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 8

- French bred horses do well

- Officially rated 142 or higher

- Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days

- Had 1 or 2 runs this season

- Ran in a handicap hurdle over 3M+ this season

- Course winner (or having first course start)

- Won over 3M or further

- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

- Won or placed in a graded chase over 3M+

- Second or third season chaser

- Finished in first 4 in Midlands National, Towtown Novice Chase or Haydock GN Trial

- First 6 in a Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase

- Trained by P Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, A King or N Twiston-Davies

- Tends to race prominently

Offline

 

#2 2013-12-15 16:22:57

burnsy
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2008-11-06
Posts: 1716

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.

Offline

 

#3 2013-12-15 17:07:55

peleus
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2013-11-19
Posts: 37

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

I think they would rather be a safe bet but totally worth it for sure. smile.gif

Offline

 

#4 2013-12-15 18:23:50

soviet song
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2012-10-14
Posts: 1221

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

The two which catch my eye are MERRY KING and ALFIE SHERRIN both trained by Jonjo,a master at these staying chases.

Offline

 

#5 2013-12-15 22:14:46

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1021

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

burnsy wrote:


Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.
Can't argue with that,and won't argue with that,i think he'll take the world of beating myself ,looks a knocking Bet,I  believe there is a Race that is made for every horse and the Welsh National looks Tailor made for Highland Lodge and should suit his every need,he stays very well,Emma Lavelle has started the season pretty well and likely Jockey Leighton Aspell seems to be Riding better than ever at present and is on a bit of a roll,he's good enough if the horse is,so i think there is no reason why they can't be a winning partnership, and at 12/1 that looks like a gift sent from Heaven,way way too big!! so my reply to that is Merry Christmas and Enjoy the Race and Enjoy recouping some of that Money that was spent on Presents by taking some well earned Winnings off the Bookies!! Good Luck All,whatever you are putting your hard earned on in this Great staying H'cap,I'm happy with my choice ,so good luck with yours too!! Bye!!

Offline

 

#6 2013-12-16 00:46:25

gold digger
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-26
Posts: 321

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

stu3105 wrote:


burnsy wrote:


Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.
Can't argue with that,and won't argue with that,i think he'll take the world of beating myself ,looks a knocking Bet,I  believe there is a Race that is made for every horse and the Welsh National looks Tailor made for Highland Lodge and should suit his every need,he stays very well,Emma Lavelle has started the season pretty well and likely Jockey Leighton Aspell seems to be Riding better than ever at present and is on a bit of a roll,he's good enough if the horse is,so i think there is no reason why they can't be a winning partnership, and at 12/1 that looks like a gift sent from Heaven,way way too big!! so my reply to that is Merry Christmas and Enjoy the Race and Enjoy recouping some of that Money that was spent on Presents by taking some well earned Winnings off the Bookies!! Good Luck All,whatever you are putting your hard earned on in this Great staying H'cap,I'm happy with my choice ,so good luck with yours too!! Bye!!
Wow, for the 1st time this season applied all the trends that were 8/10 or more and unless I made a mistake somewhere it left 1 horse.....Highland Lodge. Merry Christmas!

Offline

 

#7 2013-12-16 11:26:56

boylo
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2009-10-17
Posts: 923

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Teaforthree is a horse who seems to love Chepstow, 2nd in the race last year and won or placed on all 5 runs here but wanted to see him get a prep run in before this. Also he'll carry top weight if Tidal Bay doesn't run, which might be too much of an ask on first run since Aintree

Offline

 

#8 2013-12-16 16:31:01

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1021

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


burnsy wrote:


Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.
Can't argue with that,and won't argue with that,i think he'll take the world of beating myself ,looks a knocking Bet,I  believe there is a Race that is made for every horse and the Welsh National looks Tailor made for Highland Lodge and should suit his every need,he stays very well,Emma Lavelle has started the season pretty well and likely Jockey Leighton Aspell seems to be Riding better than ever at present and is on a bit of a roll,he's good enough if the horse is,so i think there is no reason why they can't be a winning partnership, and at 12/1 that looks like a gift sent from Heaven,way way too big!! so my reply to that is Merry Christmas and Enjoy the Race and Enjoy recouping some of that Money that was spent on Presents by taking some well earned Winnings off the Bookies!! Good Luck All,whatever you are putting your hard earned on in this Great staying H'cap,I'm happy with my choice ,so good luck with yours too!! Bye!!
Wow, for the 1st time this season applied all the trends that were 8/10 or more and unless I made a mistake somewhere it left 1 horse.....Highland Lodge. Merry Christmas!
What would be your pick Gold Digger?

Offline

 

#9 2013-12-16 17:06:12

gold digger
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-26
Posts: 321

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

stu3105 wrote:


gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


burnsy wrote:


Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.
Can't argue with that,and won't argue with that,i think he'll take the world of beating myself ,looks a knocking Bet,I  believe there is a Race that is made for every horse and the Welsh National looks Tailor made for Highland Lodge and should suit his every need,he stays very well,Emma Lavelle has started the season pretty well and likely Jockey Leighton Aspell seems to be Riding better than ever at present and is on a bit of a roll,he's good enough if the horse is,so i think there is no reason why they can't be a winning partnership, and at 12/1 that looks like a gift sent from Heaven,way way too big!! so my reply to that is Merry Christmas and Enjoy the Race and Enjoy recouping some of that Money that was spent on Presents by taking some well earned Winnings off the Bookies!! Good Luck All,whatever you are putting your hard earned on in this Great staying H'cap,I'm happy with my choice ,so good luck with yours too!! Bye!!
Wow, for the 1st time this season applied all the trends that were 8/10 or more and unless I made a mistake somewhere it left 1 horse.....Highland Lodge. Merry Christmas!
What would be your pick Gold Digger?
Like I said the trends point very strongly towards Highland Lodge and like you said he seems ideal for the race and like Burnsy said he's still well enough hcpd. He's ran 2 crackers this season on ground faster than ideal and should improve for a bit of dig. I don't think the Hennessy suited the real stayers so much this year, as such Rocky Creek ran a blinder but the winners strongest form previous was over shorter and the 3rd look to get outstayed behind Monbeg Dude at the weekend. I think this makes his 4th place all the more creditable as he seems a staying sort to me. The only concern is he's had 2 pretty tough races and doesn't appear to have been laid out for it like much of the opposition. Bearing that in mind, although the end of last season can be put down to the poor form of the stable he's yet to prove he can hold his form beyond a few starts. That's the only thing stopping me having a relatively big bet on him at the minute, I'm still likely to back him, just weighing it up in my mind before I jump, if I only get 10/1 so be it. 
 As for trends I don't pay much attention to them in Graded races as I believe the over riding factor there is class, top class horses constantly break trends but I become very interested in hcps if all the strong trends (I go by 8/10 or more) point towards just 1 or 2 runners.

Offline

 

#10 2013-12-16 17:27:48

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1021

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


burnsy wrote:


Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.
Can't argue with that,and won't argue with that,i think he'll take the world of beating myself ,looks a knocking Bet,I  believe there is a Race that is made for every horse and the Welsh National looks Tailor made for Highland Lodge and should suit his every need,he stays very well,Emma Lavelle has started the season pretty well and likely Jockey Leighton Aspell seems to be Riding better than ever at present and is on a bit of a roll,he's good enough if the horse is,so i think there is no reason why they can't be a winning partnership, and at 12/1 that looks like a gift sent from Heaven,way way too big!! so my reply to that is Merry Christmas and Enjoy the Race and Enjoy recouping some of that Money that was spent on Presents by taking some well earned Winnings off the Bookies!! Good Luck All,whatever you are putting your hard earned on in this Great staying H'cap,I'm happy with my choice ,so good luck with yours too!! Bye!!
Wow, for the 1st time this season applied all the trends that were 8/10 or more and unless I made a mistake somewhere it left 1 horse.....Highland Lodge. Merry Christmas!
What would be your pick Gold Digger?
Like I said the trends point very strongly towards Highland Lodge and like you said he seems ideal for the race and like Burnsy said he's still well enough hcpd. He's ran 2 crackers this season on ground faster than ideal and should improve for a bit of dig. I don't think the Hennessy suited the real stayers so much this year, as such Rocky Creek ran a blinder but the winners strongest form previous was over shorter and the 3rd look to get outstayed behind Monbeg Dude at the weekend. I think this makes his 4th place all the more creditable as he seems a staying sort to me. The only concern is he's had 2 pretty tough races and doesn't appear to have been laid out for it like much of the opposition. Bearing that in mind, although the end of last season can be put down to the poor form of the stable he's yet to prove he can hold his form beyond a few starts. That's the only thing stopping me having a relatively big bet on him at the minute, I'm still likely to back him, just weighing it up in my mind before I jump, if I only get 10/1 so be it. 
 As for trends I don't pay much attention to them in Graded races as I believe the over riding factor there is class, top class horses constantly break trends but I become very interested in hcps if all the strong trends (I go by 8/10 or more) point towards just 1 or 2 runners.
Yes me too,iv'e been following the trends on all these big H'caps,and if being honest they have not paid off for me,i think that's because iv'e been to precise on following every single trend as close as it can be followed,like you said these trends do get broken from time to time,iv'e had a little scan through the tends on this,but my choice in picking Highland Lodge is because he's always looked the ideal sort for this particular Race in my mind,from when he was a Novice,he's now experienced enough to do himself justice in a top Staying chase such as this,this trip on softer ground than what he has had to Race on so far this season should be right up his street,think he'll Run a massive Race for sure,definitely the 1 that standouts to me based on credentials /form /and value for money,like i said already that 12/1 looks too big,Good Luck Mate!!

Offline

 

#11 2013-12-16 19:29:55

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1021

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

soviet song wrote:


The two which catch my eye are MERRY KING and ALFIE SHERRIN both trained by Jonjo,a master at these staying chases.
Merry King is interesting as he has further improvement in him being only a 6 Yr old and he'd have minor claims at least,this is a very tough Race to Win ,especially for a young Horse who is still relatively inexperienced,Each-Way Chance at best i think,but he may prove wrong you never know.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   As for Alfie Sherrin,This Horse has a lot of talent and can be very decent on his Day,unlike his stablemate he is very much an experienced and fully established Chaser,meaning he hasn't really got the potential or any further improvement compared to that of the Younger generation who are still learning but getting better which experience when Racing, with Alfie Sherrin you could say he's over experienced, as most Winners of this seem to have only had 8 or 9 Chase starts,Winning no more than 2,He has had 18 Runs over jumps and has managed 4 Wins,so like i said he looks over qualified and also no Horse aged 10 or higher never ever seems to Win this gruelling stamina test,it's looks to be very much a younger Horses Race,7 +8 Yr  Olds  tend to be the best age group  to concentrate on,Alfie Sherrin is a Horse iv'e got time for,don't get me wrong,He was actually my Ante-post fancy for last years Grand National but he did not make the lineup,he's a Horse that has a big Race in him for sure,will be very interesting if lining up at Aintree this time around,could definitely be a National type,just does not appeal as a Welsh National type that is all. Good Luck Mate!!   

Offline

 

#12 2013-12-16 20:41:24

pidgiano
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2011-03-24
Posts: 396

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Alfie Sherrin has actually only had 10 chase starts, so not many more than the preferred 8 or 9

Offline

 

#13 2013-12-16 23:42:06

mikey69
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-08-15
Posts: 1100

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Tough race to call, this seems the best renewal of this for a couple of years at least, obviously depending what stays in! Having had a little look at the Ante Post racecard, theres a couple of 10 & 11 y/o's who are of the upmost of interest, though looking at the stats at the top c/o RC (nice job again bud:)) I may once again be "flogging a dead horse" with my selections, but nevertheless I shan't be writing them off just yet. Looking at last years renewal 2 of the placed horses were 11 Y/Os, maybe they're gonna build a little trend of their own this year:) Though the strike rate don't look promising:( There are several good looking  6-7-8-9 Y/Os as well, but this is quite the specialist race and it takes a good un' that's usually obscure at first glance. My thoughts are that it needs to be quite the exceptional 6YO to figure with the extra strength of the older horses obviously showing more frequently in the stats of the 7-8 Y/Os but not to discount the 9YOs especially for E/W purposes, theres a few good looking 9YOs, and I will possibly be taking a closer look of the 2nd (and 3rd) string of the bigger yards for the thorough stayer it takes to win this a little closer to the time!

Offline

 

#14 2013-12-17 11:31:08

brian the dog
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2011-11-18
Posts: 614

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Early in the day given the ultimate changes in going of this period but I have nibbled at 2 e/w early doors who are being targeted at the race and given a fair wind will run ... VICTORS SERENADE AND GLOBAL POWER both @ 25/1  and both fancied for this by connections (though I am sure many more are as well) looking at current ratings however, they appeal to me as great e/w chances at good odds in a race that will cut up harshly depending on the going but at least these 2 are allegedly .. going for it.

Offline

 

#15 2013-12-17 13:29:20

carlosportsman
Forum Expert
Join Date: 2013-05-16
Posts: 184

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

stu3105 wrote:


gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


burnsy wrote:


Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.
Can't argue with that,and won't argue with that,i think he'll take the world of beating myself ,looks a knocking Bet,I  believe there is a Race that is made for every horse and the Welsh National looks Tailor made for Highland Lodge and should suit his every need,he stays very well,Emma Lavelle has started the season pretty well and likely Jockey Leighton Aspell seems to be Riding better than ever at present and is on a bit of a roll,he's good enough if the horse is,so i think there is no reason why they can't be a winning partnership, and at 12/1 that looks like a gift sent from Heaven,way way too big!! so my reply to that is Merry Christmas and Enjoy the Race and Enjoy recouping some of that Money that was spent on Presents by taking some well earned Winnings off the Bookies!! Good Luck All,whatever you are putting your hard earned on in this Great staying H'cap,I'm happy with my choice ,so good luck with yours too!! Bye!!
Wow, for the 1st time this season applied all the trends that were 8/10 or more and unless I made a mistake somewhere it left 1 horse.....Highland Lodge. Merry Christmas!
What would be your pick Gold Digger?
Like I said the trends point very strongly towards Highland Lodge and like you said he seems ideal for the race and like Burnsy said he's still well enough hcpd. He's ran 2 crackers this season on ground faster than ideal and should improve for a bit of dig. I don't think the Hennessy suited the real stayers so much this year, as such Rocky Creek ran a blinder but the winners strongest form previous was over shorter and the 3rd look to get outstayed behind Monbeg Dude at the weekend. I think this makes his 4th place all the more creditable as he seems a staying sort to me. The only concern is he's had 2 pretty tough races and doesn't appear to have been laid out for it like much of the opposition. Bearing that in mind, although the end of last season can be put down to the poor form of the stable he's yet to prove he can hold his form beyond a few starts. That's the only thing stopping me having a relatively big bet on him at the minute, I'm still likely to back him, just weighing it up in my mind before I jump, if I only get 10/1 so be it. 
 As for trends I don't pay much attention to them in Graded races as I believe the over riding factor there is class, top class horses constantly break trends but I become very interested in hcps if all the strong trends (I go by 8/10 or more) point towards just 1 or 2 runners.
Yes me too,iv'e been following the trends on all these big H'caps,and if being honest they have not paid off for me,i think that's because iv'e been to precise on following every single trend as close as it can be followed,like you said these trends do get broken from time to time,iv'e had a little scan through the tends on this,but my choice in picking Highland Lodge is because he's always looked the ideal sort for this particular Race in my mind,from when he was a Novice,he's now experienced enough to do himself justice in a top Staying chase such as this,this trip on softer ground than what he has had to Race on so far this season should be right up his street,think he'll Run a massive Race for sure,definitely the 1 that standouts to me based on credentials /form /and value for money,like i said already that 12/1 looks too big,Good Luck Mate!!

Stick with the trends Stu, you can have spells of missing out, I did last year bar Monbeg Dude in this race and couple of other winners then I got to Cheltenham and the trends pointing me to Golden Chieftan, Medinas and Ted Veale, all winners at good prices. It pays off in the long run

Offline

 

#16 2013-12-17 22:50:23

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1021

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

carlosportsman wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


gold digger wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


burnsy wrote:


Highland Lodge looks the type who will keep staying on and will be 1lb lower than placing in the Hennessy. Very soft ground won't be problem for him either.
Can't argue with that,and won't argue with that,i think he'll take the world of beating myself ,looks a knocking Bet,I  believe there is a Race that is made for every horse and the Welsh National looks Tailor made for Highland Lodge and should suit his every need,he stays very well,Emma Lavelle has started the season pretty well and likely Jockey Leighton Aspell seems to be Riding better than ever at present and is on a bit of a roll,he's good enough if the horse is,so i think there is no reason why they can't be a winning partnership, and at 12/1 that looks like a gift sent from Heaven,way way too big!! so my reply to that is Merry Christmas and Enjoy the Race and Enjoy recouping some of that Money that was spent on Presents by taking some well earned Winnings off the Bookies!! Good Luck All,whatever you are putting your hard earned on in this Great staying H'cap,I'm happy with my choice ,so good luck with yours too!! Bye!!
Wow, for the 1st time this season applied all the trends that were 8/10 or more and unless I made a mistake somewhere it left 1 horse.....Highland Lodge. Merry Christmas!
What would be your pick Gold Digger?
Like I said the trends point very strongly towards Highland Lodge and like you said he seems ideal for the race and like Burnsy said he's still well enough hcpd. He's ran 2 crackers this season on ground faster than ideal and should improve for a bit of dig. I don't think the Hennessy suited the real stayers so much this year, as such Rocky Creek ran a blinder but the winners strongest form previous was over shorter and the 3rd look to get outstayed behind Monbeg Dude at the weekend. I think this makes his 4th place all the more creditable as he seems a staying sort to me. The only concern is he's had 2 pretty tough races and doesn't appear to have been laid out for it like much of the opposition. Bearing that in mind, although the end of last season can be put down to the poor form of the stable he's yet to prove he can hold his form beyond a few starts. That's the only thing stopping me having a relatively big bet on him at the minute, I'm still likely to back him, just weighing it up in my mind before I jump, if I only get 10/1 so be it. 
 As for trends I don't pay much attention to them in Graded races as I believe the over riding factor there is class, top class horses constantly break trends but I become very interested in hcps if all the strong trends (I go by 8/10 or more) point towards just 1 or 2 runners.
Yes me too,iv'e been following the trends on all these big H'caps,and if being honest they have not paid off for me,i think that's because iv'e been to precise on following every single trend as close as it can be followed,like you said these trends do get broken from time to time,iv'e had a little scan through the tends on this,but my choice in picking Highland Lodge is because he's always looked the ideal sort for this particular Race in my mind,from when he was a Novice,he's now experienced enough to do himself justice in a top Staying chase such as this,this trip on softer ground than what he has had to Race on so far this season should be right up his street,think he'll Run a massive Race for sure,definitely the 1 that standouts to me based on credentials /form /and value for money,like i said already that 12/1 looks too big,Good Luck Mate!!

Stick with the trends Stu, you can have spells of missing out, I did last year bar Monbeg Dude in this race and couple of other winners then I got to Cheltenham and the trends pointing me to Golden Chieftan, Medinas and Ted Veale, all winners at good prices. It pays off in the long run
Will try too Mate,but they better start coming up trumps for me,since iv'e used the trends on this forum,iv'e had no luck whatsoever,example !! Take the Becher Chase for instance,i'd looked at Chance Du Roy and he stood out as a horse who had definite Each-way claims,he's a horse that had been lucky for me in the past too,however i read the trends and they told me a totally different story,no way could you have backed him if following the 10 year trends right down to every single detail,yet if hadnot of followed those trends,then i maybe of backed the Winner,good chance i would of had an Each-way Bet on him,it's these trends that have been letting me down the most and giving me a bad name Lol!! often confident about what i have read on the trends,think iv'e cracked it and found the Winner,and then the Race is run and it all goes to pot,so many times on the Flat in the big H'caps that i normally do so well in,i followed the trends to every single detail, and got nowhere near.Anyway cheers for the advice Mate,take care and wish you Luck!! Bye!

Offline

 

#17 2013-12-18 19:36:23

rightjudgeiam
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 373

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Working on this race and eliminating the unlikely, plenty more to do yet before getting a final short list


in the meantime, I have some observations about Merry King


1. If you look at his last 3 runs he has been 'held up' either in 'midfield' or 'well in rear'.


2. After those 3 runs, he is now rated 138 which is lower than when he was reassessed after the Tommy Whittle (4 runs ago)


3. Look at the previous 3 runs ending in the Tommy Whittle and you will see he was ridden 'always prominent', 'chased leaders' and 'always prominent'




So, why did they change the riding tactics? His 3 runs where he was ridden prominently resulted in a win by 7 lengths, a defeat by a nose with 14 lengths back to the 3rd and a 3/4 length defeat with 6 lengths back to the third yet afterwards he was held up 3 times and has been beaten 56 lengths, 6 lengths and 18 lengths


What's the likelihood that Merry King will be ridden prominently in the Welsh National? And if he is, do we think he might be well handicapped?


EDIT


This is my final short list:



356-24 Highland Lodge               Emma Lavelle 143 164 175
220-25 Merry King                  Jonjo O´Neill 140 131 171
116P-1 Nuts N Bolts Lucinda Russell 140 115 172
1521-4 Poungach         Paul Nicholls 143 152 170
874-26 Tour Des Champs Nigel Twiston-Davies 132 138 165


very good chance that the winner is on this list

Last edited by rightjudgeiam (2013-12-18 21:48:23)

Offline

 

#18 2013-12-22 18:05:26

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1021

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

mikey69 wrote:


Tough race to call, this seems the best renewal of this for a couple of years at least, obviously depending what stays in! Having had a little look at the Ante Post racecard, theres a couple of 10 & 11 y/o's who are of the upmost of interest, though looking at the stats at the top c/o RC (nice job againbud:)) I may once again be "flogging a dead horse" with my selections, but nevertheless I shan't be writing them off just yet. Looking at last years renewal2 of the placed horseswere 11 Y/Os, maybe they're gonna build a little trend of their own this year:) Though the strike rate don't look promising:(There are several good looking 6-7-8-9 Y/Os as well, but this is quite the specialist race and it takes a good un' that's usually obscure at first glance. My thoughts are that it needs to be quite the exceptional 6YO to figure with the extra strength of the older horses obviouslyshowing more frequently in the stats of the 7-8 Y/Os but not to discount the 9YOs especially for E/W purposes, theres a few good looking 9YOs, and I will possiblybe taking a closer look of the 2nd (and 3rd) string of the bigger yards for the thorough stayer it takes to win this a little closer to the time!


Offline

 

#19 2013-12-24 01:48:50

bitchy
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2011-02-23
Posts: 946

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

rightjudgeiam wrote:


Working on this race and eliminating the unlikely, plenty more to do yet before getting a final short list


in the meantime, I have some observations about Merry King


1. If you look at his last 3 runs he has been 'held up' either in 'midfield' or 'well in rear'.


2. After those 3 runs, he is now rated 138 which is lower than when he was reassessed after the Tommy Whittle (4 runs ago)


3. Look at the previous 3 runs ending in the Tommy Whittle and you will see he was ridden 'always prominent', 'chased leaders' and 'always prominent'




So, why did they change the riding tactics? His 3 runs where he was ridden prominently resulted in a win by 7 lengths, a defeat by a nose with 14 lengths back to the 3rd and a 3/4 length defeat with 6 lengths back to the third yet afterwards he was held up 3 times and has been beaten 56 lengths, 6 lengths and 18 lengths


What's the likelihood that Merry King will be ridden prominently in the Welsh National? And if he is, do we think he might be well handicapped?


EDIT


This is my final short list:



356-24 Highland Lodge               Emma Lavelle 143 164 175
220-25 Merry King                  Jonjo O´Neill 140 131 171
116P-1 Nuts N Bolts Lucinda Russell 140 115 172
1521-4 Poungach         Paul Nicholls 143 152 170
874-26 Tour Des Champs Nigel Twiston-Davies 132 138 165


very good chance that the winner is on this list

nuts and bolts n/runner mate

Offline

 

#20 2013-12-27 22:30:26

mylo
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2011-05-03
Posts: 1330

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

This really is a difficult puzzle but it could be worth noting that a very high percentage of previous winners of this had already won at the track.



16 of the last 21



This would be my starting point.




from these  16                            11 had there previous start at the course




Two Runners match this.              HAWKES POINT



                                                      MOUNTAINOUS                   




From these 2  Mountainous being Irish bred looks to be more of a betting proposition.



From the other course winners  WYCK HILL  and  AMIGO look interesting.





Offline

 

#21 2013-12-28 14:29:45

moconnell
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2008-07-04
Posts: 2369

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Knock A Hand is a course winner who's won on heavy, carries a 4lb penalty for easy win last time, Richard Johnson riding, good ew chance

Offline

 

#22 2013-12-28 14:58:14

thetimelord
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

mylo wrote:


This really is a difficult puzzle but it could be worth noting that a very high percentage of previous winners of this had already won at the track.



16 of the last 21



This would be my starting point.




from these  16                            11 had there previous start at the course




Two Runners match this.              HAWKES POINT



                                                      MOUNTAINOUS                   




From these 2  Mountainous being Irish bred looks to be more of a betting proposition.



From the other course winners  WYCK HILL  and  AMIGO look interesting.






All I can say is f**k me - first AND second!!! That could be quite a useful stat for the future....WELL DONE INDEED!

Offline

 

#23 2013-12-28 14:59:16

moconnell
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2008-07-04
Posts: 2369

Re: CORAL WELSH NATIONAL TRENDS 2013

Well done Mylo, some f/c if you did it. Great run by Tidal Bay at 12 years old under top weight

Offline

 

Board footer

Powered by PunBB
© Copyright 2002–2008 PunBB

Message to