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#1 2014-01-07 01:23:49

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
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CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 11th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2000:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-3

7yo: 1-8-15

8yo: 3-8-24

9yo: 3-3-41

10yo: 1-1-23

11yo: 1-1-15

12yo+: 1-1-15

No strong trend on ages, though all 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred, 2 of 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 7-12-80

French bred: 2-6-30

GB bred: 1-4-24

Other: 0-0-2

Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 58.8% of the total runners.

French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 2-6-18 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-12.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-9-68

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-13-68

In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with 5 of last 6 winners and 10 of the 18 placed finishers in past 6 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.

Top weight: 44FPB0P3615 (1-2-11)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 141 or higher: 1-4-23

Horses rated 129 to 140: 8-11-69

Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-7-44

In past 6 runnings, the trend has been towards higher rated runners:

Horses rated 133 or higher: 5-7-39

Horses rated 132 or lower: 1-5-41

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)

10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 131+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences

9 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases

7 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase

7 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)

 

Other Races

Newcastle Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 1 (1-0-1)

Kim Muir Challenge Cup winner (Same Difference): 8 (0-0-1)

Walters UK Ltd Handicap Chase winner (Relax): P (0-0-1)

Lincolnshire National winner (Merlin's Wish): P (0-0-1)

Devon Marathon Handicap Chase winner (Major Malarkey): FP (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase, finishing 4P4

3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing P02

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing U0

2 of 10 winners ran in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P

2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in Tim Molony Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing P2

 

Trainers

Alan King (2-2-7) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 4 and saddled runner-up last year. 

Venetia Williams (1-3-9) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 9 runners.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-12) has gained a win & 2 places from 12 runners since 2001.

Colin Tizzard (1-0-1) trained Hey Big Spender to win this in 2012.

Ian Williams (0-1-1) has seen his 2 runners since 2000 both finish 2nd.

 

Price

No very strong trend on the prices, though 3 of the last 4 winners have gone off at double figures prices.

Favourites (1-4-11) have won just one running since 2001, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:

- Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger

- Carrying 10-9 or more

- Officially rated 133 or higher

- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days

- Posted an RPR of 131+ in one or both of last 2 starts

- Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track

- Previously won at least twice over fences

- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

- Previously contested a graded chase (or rated lower than 130)

- Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National

- Finished in first 4 in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase

- Trained by Alan King, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Colin Tizzard, Ian or Venetia Williams

 

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#2 2014-01-07 11:45:46

rc-gavin
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Willie Mullins has two strong entries for this race with Vesper Bell and On His Own entered.


Read more here: http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=74028&headline=Mullins-plans-British-raids#.UsvorPRdWiQ

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#3 2014-01-07 14:32:57

eoinmc
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

23 entered, presume we're looking at very soft ground for this at Warwick?

1     374-4    Alfie Sherrin49    11        Jonjo O´Neill40         134    114    136
2     0-P532    Any Currency29    11        Martin Keighley29         132    117    139
3     40-331    Boyfromnowhere55    7        Rebecca Curtis25         129    119    134
4     0191P-    Carruthers301      11        Mark Bradstock         150    99    159
5     117-6P    Emperor´s Choice21    7        Venetia Williams61         128    115    143
6     2P-41P    Hey Big Spender14      11        Colin Tizzard33         146    132    149
7     U5-202    Loch Ba21    8        Mick Channon100         132    124    140
8     0-5F01    Major Malarkey36    11        Nigel Twiston-Davies27         126    116    133
9     P1P1P-    Master Overseer301      11        David Pipe20         146    68    146
10     4-2211    Merlin´s Wish16      9        Martin Keighley29         125    84    132
11     11-0P1    Noble Legend16    7        Caroline Bailey100         135    80    139
12     5-1766    On His Own35      10        W P Mullins50         —    127    144
13     235F27    Pineau De Re21    11        Dr Richard Newland100         133    111    139
14     2PP-P1    Relax26    9        Venetia Williams61         132    104    138
15     322791    Royale Knight34    8        Dr Richard Newland100         121    98    129
16     11P-3P    Safran De Cotte21      8        Henry Daly43         126    105    131
17     612-00    Same Difference42    8        Nigel Twiston-Davies27         144    139    153
18     33-132    Shotgun Paddy28    7        Emma Lavelle67         145    84    148
19     F-8465    Solix21    8        Ian Williams50         131    110    133
20     6203-9    Teaforthree14    10        Rebecca Curtis25         151    150    158
21     1/394-    Trigger The Light307      13        Alan King57    Wayne Hutchinson     123    100    120
22     1372-F    Vesper Bell35    8        W P Mullins50         —    111    148
23     11/P-2    Victors Serenade62      9        Anthony Honeyball50         137    -1    —

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#4 2014-01-07 15:00:07

leo
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Looks a decent renewal.
On his own looks well weighted just hope Ruby comes here and not Kempton.

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#5 2014-01-07 16:55:38

folski
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

rc-gavin wrote:


Willie Mullins has two strong entries for this race with Vesper Bell and On His Own entered.


Read more here: http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=74028&headline=Mullins-plans-British-raids#.UsvorPRdWiQ


Mullins is 0/43 the last 5 years in handicaps in GB.

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#6 2014-01-07 17:12:22

leo
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Join Date: 2014-01-03
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

folski wrote:


rc-gavin wrote:


Willie Mullins has two strong entries for this race with Vesper Bell and On His Own entered.


Read more here: http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=74028&headline=Mullins-plans-British-raids#.UsvorPRdWiQ


Mullins is 0/43 the last 5 years in handicaps in GB.
Didn't Final Approach win the County Hurdle a few years back?

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#7 2014-01-07 17:33:07

danny grant
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Join Date: 2011-04-07
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

leo wrote:


folski wrote:


rc-gavin wrote:


Willie Mullins has two strong entries for this race with Vesper Bell and On His Own entered.


Read more here: http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=74028&headline=Mullins-plans-British-raids#.UsvorPRdWiQ


Mullins is 0/43 the last 5 years in handicaps in GB.
Didn't Final Approach win the County Hurdle a few years back?


That 0 from 43 is probably handicap chases

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#8 2014-01-07 22:20:46

folski
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Sorry that was only chases, apologies.

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#9 2014-01-08 14:39:29

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Trigger The Light is pretty old now but has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 runs over the C&D, plus Alan King usually targets one at this race

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#10 2014-01-09 07:20:58

soviet song
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

I like ALFIE SHERRIN in this.Talented on his day and been 3rd in an Irish National.Good prep run when 4th to Gevrey Chambertin over hurdles last time and Jonjo really excels with these staying chasers.

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#11 2014-01-09 11:43:04

eoinmc
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Decs for this:

1     0191P-    Carruthers301 t      11    11-12    Mark Bradstock    Nico de Boinville5     150    101    161
2     2P-41P    Hey Big Spender14 t      11    11-8    Colin Tizzard33    Joe Tizzard     146    138    155
3     P1P1P-    Master Overseer301 tb1      11    11-8    David Pipe18         146    74    152
4     33-132    Shotgun Paddy28    7    11-7    Emma Lavelle67    Leighton Aspell     145    91    155
5     612-00    Same Difference42 v    8    11-6    Nigel Twiston-Davies22    Sam Twiston-Davies     144    147    161
6     1372-F    Vesper Bell35    8    11-4    W P Mullins50         142    121    158
7     11/P-2    Victors Serenade62      9    10-13    Anthony Honeyball40    Robert Thornton     137    —    —
8     11-0P1    Noble Legend16    7    10-11    Caroline Bailey67    Andrew Thornton     135    97    156
9     0-P532    Any Currency29 hp    11    10-8    Martin Keighley33    Tom Siddall     132    137    159
10     U5-202    Loch Ba21    8    10-8    Mick Channon100    Dominic Elsworth     132    144    160
11     F-8465    Solix21 p    8    10-7    Ian Williams57         131    131    154
12     40-331    Boyfromnowhere55 p    7    10-5    Rebecca Curtis33    Patrick Corbett5     129    142    157
13     117-6P    Emperor´s Choice21    7    10-4    Venetia Williams61         128    139    167
14     11P-3P    Safran De Cotte21      8    10-2    Henry Daly50    Jake Greenall3     126    131    157
15     0-5F01    Major Malarkey36 v    11    10-2    Nigel Twiston-Davies22    Adam Wedge     126    142    159
16     322791    Royale Knight34    8    10-0    Dr Richard Newland100    Brendan Powell     121    126    157

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#12 2014-01-09 11:55:30

statsman
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Victors Serenade loves the soft ground and should have benefitted from a confidence booster last time out when 2nd over hurdles and Robert Thornton is a promising booking, rides Warwick well and won this in 2008

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#13 2014-01-09 12:03:05

rc-gavin
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

16 runners go to post including Willie Mullins Vesper Bell


Read More Here: http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=74054&headline=Bell-takes-Classic-test

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#14 2014-01-09 14:31:09

gold digger
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

I've had a little bit on Safran De Cotte 20/1 for this. The 20/1 has gone but 16/1 still available. Uninspiring to see 2 p/u's in his last 3 starts but may of had excuses and at the prices I'm willing to take the chance. The first of those came on his seventh and final start of his novice campaign, may well have simply had enough by then. He ran o.k in 3rd on his reappearance before p/u when a well supported fav in the Tommy Whittle. Basically Haydock is a speed track and the official description of 'soft' is in some doubt, the time been only 8.9 secs outside standard. They were always going a stride too fast for him there, he was taken out of his comfort zone, hit the 8th quite hard and was struggling thereafter.
  He's really well hcp'd now, just 1lb higher than his last winning run at Chepstow, the form of which has worked out nicely. He often shaped last season as if he would appreciate an extreme test and as a 2nd season novice having his first crack at such a test is open to any amount of improvement. 
 He fits plenty of the above trends in terms of form though has a lower weight and rating than most winners. However having no weight has it's advantages in such a slog and no horse here is a perfect fit on the trends. On his 6 starts on heavy he's managed 3 wins and a (distant) place in a G2 at this track. Jake is 3/6 on him.
  Can't think of anything else nice to say about him, a slightly speculative selection in a very competitive looking race. 

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#15 2014-01-09 19:03:32

stu3105
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Snap!! He's 1 that i'm interested in also, he has  Raced 2 times in the past at my local Track,once when running a very respectable 3rd in the grade 2 novice hurdle[the new one Won it last year] and the other occasion being an unplaced 11th of 15 runners in the 3 mile 1 furlong h'cap hurdle raced earlier on this card back in 2012,but however he has more than proven his liking for Heavy ground when winning a very competitive looking H'cap Hurdle at class 2 Level and Trainer Henry Daly loves sending his Horses too Warwick and has an excellent record with his Wins to Runners Ratio,also the fact he has started the season well too,Jockey Jake greenall is taking 3ibs off his back and has Won on him at least once maybe twice,and also an interesting fact is that the 2 french bred horses that have Won this great staying Chase were both  8 yr olds too so that looks a positive point too add further confidence too his chance of Winning the Race,like Gold Digger has also stated i also agree there could be a good bit more too come from him now being stepped up to a Marathon trip for the first time,if that's the case considering he would not have to find much too much improvement on his 3 Mile Form then he could be hard to beat,very surprised he's trading at 16/1 to be honest,i'll be having some of that for sure Each-way !! On his best form he should be hard to keep out of the frame i'm thinking. Good luck everybody!!

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#16 2014-01-09 19:15:06

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

stu3105 wrote:


Snap!! He's 1 that i'm interested in also, he has  Raced 2 times in the past at my local Track,once when running a very respectable 3rd in the grade 2 novice hurdle[the new one Won it last year] and the other occasion being an unplaced 11th of 15 runners in the 3 mile 1 furlong h'cap hurdle raced earlier on this card back in 2012,but however he has more than proven his liking for Heavy ground when winning a very competitive looking H'cap Hurdle at class 2 Level and Trainer Henry Daly loves sending his Horses too Warwick and has an excellent record with his Wins to Runners Ratio,also the fact he has started the season well too,Jockey Jake greenall is taking 3ibs off his back and has Won on him at least once maybe twice,and also an interesting fact is that the 2 french bred horses that have Won this great staying Chase were both  8 yr olds too so that looks a positive point too add further confidence too his chance of Winning the Race,like Gold Digger has also stated i also agree there could be a good bit more too come from him now being stepped up to a Marathon trip for the first time,if that's the case considering he would not have to find much too much improvement on his 3 Mile Form then he could be hard to beat,very surprised he's trading at 16/1 to be honest,i'll be having some of that for sure Each-way !! On his best form he should be hard to keep out of the frame i'm thinking. Good luck everybody!!
stu what do you think of Emperor's Choice? Dour stayer who's form figures on ground described as "HEAVY" reads 321116 includes when beating subsequents Midlands GN winner & Scottish GN 2nd Big Occasion...pipe-opener when 6th at Fontwell off big weight, forgiven bad run at Haydock last time, a lot of horses decent horses are finding Haydock too much this season...Relax, Noble Legend, Bobs Worth all poor on the chase course over 3m+ and won next time....fancy Noble Legend strongly too, may get bogged down on heavy but up-and-coming stayer who has a good ew chance for in-form yard.

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#17 2014-01-09 20:24:56

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

mrfleamans wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


Snap!! He's 1 that i'm interested in also, he has  Raced 2 times in the past at my local Track,once when running a very respectable 3rd in the grade 2 novice hurdle[the new one Won it last year] and the other occasion being an unplaced 11th of 15 runners in the 3 mile 1 furlong h'cap hurdle raced earlier on this card back in 2012,but however he has more than proven his liking for Heavy ground when winning a very competitive looking H'cap Hurdle at class 2 Level and Trainer Henry Daly loves sending his Horses too Warwick and has an excellent record with his Wins to Runners Ratio,also the fact he has started the season well too,Jockey Jake greenall is taking 3ibs off his back and has Won on him at least once maybe twice,and also an interesting fact is that the 2 french bred horses that have Won this great staying Chase were both  8 yr olds too so that looks a positive point too add further confidence too his chance of Winning the Race,like Gold Digger has also stated i also agree there could be a good bit more too come from him now being stepped up to a Marathon trip for the first time,if that's the case considering he would not have to find much too much improvement on his 3 Mile Form then he could be hard to beat,very surprised he's trading at 16/1 to be honest,i'll be having some of that for sure Each-way !! On his best form he should be hard to keep out of the frame i'm thinking. Good luck everybody!!
stu what do you think of Emperor's Choice? Dour stayer who's form figures on ground described as "HEAVY" reads 321116 includes when beating subsequents Midlands GN winner & Scottish GN 2nd Big Occasion...pipe-opener when 6th at Fontwell off big weight, forgiven bad run at Haydock last time, a lot of horses decent horses are finding Haydock too much this season...Relax, Noble Legend, Bobs Worth all poor on the chase course over 3m+ and won next time....fancy Noble Legend strongly too, may get bogged down on heavy but up-and-coming stayer who has a good ew chance for in-form yard.
Not sure about Noble Legend ,i did take a look at his form when going through the race,my thinking was what you have said already,that the ground may find him out,as for Emperor's Choice,yes definitely interesting contender,anything Venetia Runs here or anywhere at present has to be respected,Place claims at the very least i would think.                                                                                                                                     My personal pick of the bigger prices has to be Solix,Ex Nicky Henderson inmate,Had good form mostly on Heavy ground in his native France too,lost his way a little after a good first season when competing with some very good novices that season[Sir des champs/Silviniaco conti etc,only had 3 runs over fences so maybe a bit under experienced for such a Race like this one,However Ian Williams is classed as a local Trainer and does extremely well here given the fact he has less representation than some of the bigger yards do at this Track,not adverse to the odd gamble when one from the yard is fancied and most interestingly he has saddled 2 Places in this Race most recently when both finishing in 2nd place,I fancy this 1 for a place at least,could be the Dark Horse i feel and could be overpriced,Well worth having a look at Bud!! Good Luck!!      

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#18 2014-01-09 20:25:55

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
Posts: 7235

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

gold digger wrote:


I've had a little bit on Safran De Cotte 20/1 for this. The 20/1 has gone but 16/1 still available. Uninspiring to see 2 p/u's in his last 3 starts but may of had excuses and at the prices I'm willing to take the chance. The first of those came on his seventh and final start of his novice campaign, may well have simply had enough by then. He ran o.k in 3rd on his reappearance before p/u when a well supported fav in the Tommy Whittle. Basically Haydock is a speed track and the official description of 'soft' is in some doubt, the time been only 8.9 secs outside standard. They were always going a stride too fast for him there, he was taken out of his comfort zone, hit the 8th quite hard and was struggling thereafter.
  He's really well hcp'd now, just 1lb higher than his last winning run at Chepstow, the form of which has worked out nicely. He often shaped last season as if he would appreciate an extreme test and as a 2nd season novice having his first crack at such a test is open to any amount of improvement. 
 He fits plenty of the above trends in terms of form though has a lower weight and rating than most winners. However having no weight has it's advantages in such a slog and no horse here is a perfect fit on the trends. On his 6 starts on heavy he's managed 3 wins and a (distant) place in a G2 at this track. Jake is 3/6 on him.
  Can't think of anything else nice to say about him, a slightly speculative selection in a very competitive looking race. 
interesting what you say here about the state of the ground that day gold digger and RP site agree with you...certainly upgrades the chance of your horse Safran and Emperor's Choice - both prefer soft ground and blatently didn't get it this day...


RACEWINNERDISTTIME/FCOMPARISON
COMP PER F
ALLOWTS
RPR
OFFICIAL
GROUND
T/BASED
GROUND
 
12:00Leviathan2m3m 52.70s 
14.54s
+4.70s 
+0.29s
-0.20s/f118
124
SoftGood
 
12:30Mwaleshi2m4m 1.10s 
15.07s
+1.10s 
+0.07s
-0.20s/f137
143
SoftGood
 
1:00Carole´s Spirit2m4f4m 37.80s 
13.89s
+5.80s 
+0.29s
-0.20s/f112
139
SoftGood
 
1:30Granville Island2m4m 6.70s 
15.42s
+6.70s 
+0.42s
-0.20s/f107
125
SoftGood
 
2:05Night Alliance3m5m 59.90s 
15s
+8.90s 
+0.37s
-0.20s/f105
139
SoftGood
 
2:40Special Catch2m4f4m 40.70s 
14.04s
+8.70s 
+0.43s
-0.20s/f96
136
SoftGood
 
3:15Sausalito Sunrise3m5m 44.40s 
14.35s
+4.40s 
+0.18s
-0.20s/f124
136
SoftGood

Last edited by mrfleamans (2014-01-09 20:27:15)

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#19 2014-01-09 21:06:17

gold digger
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

I certainly wouldn't put you off Emperors Choice MrFleamans, for all the reasons you state. Wouldn't have to improve on that defeat of Big Occasion, just 2lb higher on Sat, to be right in the mix. Will love the ground, guaranteed stamina and Venetia, all good. Looks a solid e/w Sir.

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#20 2014-01-10 13:45:53

happyhammer
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

The way Caroline Bailey's horses are running, Noble Legend has to have a good ew chance

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#21 2014-01-10 19:47:18

stu3105
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

happyhammer wrote:


The way Caroline Bailey's horses are running, Noble Legend has to have a good ew chance
yes definitely must have an Each-way Squeak Mate,my Each-way picks are Saffran De Cotte and Solix both french bred 8 yr olds who are proven on Heavy ground with very light Weights,however the 1 i'm chancing for the Win is Same Difference,not achieved much so far this season but his last Run was in the Hennessy Gold Cup where he finished 10th of 21 beaten about 21 lengths,however he should of come on for that Run,nigel twiston Davies horses are in better form now too,and he has a decent record in this race and at Warwick in general,considered to be a local trainer and always has to be respected in these top staying chases,if this horse returns to something like the form he showed when winning at Cheltenham last year when carrying a big weight then he'd take the beating in this competitive but smaller field compared to the number of horses he was beating last year on a couple of occasions,could still be too big a price at 14/1!! though he was 20/1 yesterday so i'm not the only 1 who fancies him it seems,also the stable have fancied runners in big races at kempton too,but sam twiston davies has chosen to ride here and get the leg up on this 1 instead,stable normally pretty shrewd so worth a second look when the money comes for them,good luck bud!!

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#22 2014-01-10 21:33:43

doolittle
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Join Date: 2010-11-23
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Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

Gotta fancy Loch Ba on the stats front but I also think the good Dr will eek some more improvement out of Royale Knight & off a featherweight on this ground he could stretch them. Tons of positives with the stable bang in form,good jockey,good course record for trainer,ground should be ok,I hope he can at least find the frame.



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#23 2014-01-10 21:55:56

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 375

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2014

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Vesper Bell
Same Difference


That was my final short list but cannot back Mullins in hcps so dutched the other 2 on Betfair at 13.5 EC and 22 SD

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