The BetBright Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) is a 3M handicap chase, which takes place at Kempton on Saturday, the 22nd February. It has been a race in which higher rated horses, prominent in the betting have fared well.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
8yos have the best individual record, winning 4 of the last 7
All 4 winners aged older than 8 had won a graded chase.
Both winners aged older than 10 had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal of this.
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 8-15-63
Horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 2-8-76
8 of 10 winners carried 10-12+ and so higher weights are heavily favoured.
Top Weight: P1123104338 (3-4-11) has gained 3 wins and 4 places from their 11 runners in the past 10 years.
Horses rated 153 or higher: 1-5-14
Horses rated 143 to 152: 7-8-47
Horses rated 142 or lower: 2-10-78
The last 10 winners were officially rated 140 or higher.
6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 5th in King George)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time out
9 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 chases since August
10 of 10 winners had win over 2M 5F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions were having first try at 3M+)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 9 or fewer handicaps chases
9 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (exception was a novice that had won twice in class 3 but not raced at a higher level)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track
5 of 10 winners were course winners (other 5 were having first run here)
8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase
Highest placed finisher from last year's race: 2032650 (0-3-7)
Armishaws Removals Harry Dufosee Novices' Chase winner (Ardkilly Witness): 2 (0-1-1)
Sodexo Handicap Chase winner (Bury Parade): 7 (0-0-1)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Standing Ovation): F (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in Masters Handicap Chase last time, finishing 17
2 of 10 winners ran in King George last time, finishign 55
2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 66
2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing F2
2 of 10 winners made seasonal debut in Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 15
Last 2 novice chasers to win this had won a chase over 2M 5F at Wincanton earlier that season
7 of 10 winners led or chased leaders
Philip Hobbs (2-4-12) has won the race three times since 2002 and 6 of his 12 runners in past 10 years have made the frame.
Tom George (2-2-4) saddled Nacarat to win it in 2009 & 2012 and finish 2nd & 3rd in 2010 & 2011.
Paul Nicholls (1-5-16) has saddled 5 of the last 6 favourites of this race and while he did win it in 2008 with Gungadu, 4 of his 7 runners in past 4 years have failed to complete (including all 3 favourites).
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-7) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-7) are the other two trainers with entries that have won the race in the past 10 years
Venetia Williams (0-1-9) & David Pipe (0-0-9) have struggled in this, their 18 collective runners producing no winners and just 1 place.
10 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 12/1
Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals, with no winner going off bigger than 12/1 in the past 10 years.
Horses priced 11/1 or below: 9-14-60 (+13.00)
Horses priced 12/1 or bigger: 1-9-79 (-66.00)
Favourites (1-1-10) have gained just 1 win since 2004, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7 or 8 (or aged 9+ and previously won a graded chase)
- Carrying 10-12+ (top weight does well)
- Officially rated 140 or higher
- Won last time out (or beaten in King George)
- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 chases since August
- Run in 9 or fewer handicap chases, winning 1 to 3
- Won a class 2 race or higher
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase (or is a novice)
- Won over 3M+ (or having first try over 3M+)
- Tends to race prominently
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Previously won a chase at a right handed track
- Trained by Philip Hobbs or Tom George
- Priced 12/1 or shorter