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#1 2014-02-17 15:20:55

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6493

BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

The BetBright Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) is a 3M handicap chase, which takes place at Kempton on Saturday, the 22nd February. It has been a race in which higher rated horses, prominent in the betting have fared well.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-2-6

7yo: 2-5-24

8yo: 4-7-36

9yo: 1-4-29

10yo: 1-3-26

11yo: 1-0-13

12yo+: 1-2-5

8yos have the best individual record, winning 4 of the last 7

All 4 winners aged older than 8 had won a graded chase.

Both winners aged older than 10 had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal of this.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 8-15-63

Horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 2-8-76

8 of 10 winners carried 10-12+ and so higher weights are heavily favoured.

Top Weight: P1123104338 (3-4-11) has gained 3 wins and 4 places from their 11 runners in the past 10 years.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 153 or higher: 1-5-14

Horses rated 143 to 152: 7-8-47

Horses rated 142 or lower: 2-10-78

The last 10 winners were officially rated 140 or higher.

 

Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 5th in King George)

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time out

9 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 chases since August

10 of 10 winners had win over 2M 5F+

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions were having first try at 3M+)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 9 or fewer handicaps chases

9 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (exception was a novice that had won twice in class 3 but not raced at a higher level)

9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track

5 of 10 winners were course winners (other 5 were having first run here)

8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase

 

Other Races

Highest placed finisher from last year's race: 2032650 (0-3-7)

Armishaws Removals Harry Dufosee Novices' Chase winner (Ardkilly Witness): 2 (0-1-1) 

Sodexo Handicap Chase winner (Bury Parade): 7 (0-0-1) 

Badger Ales Trophy winner (Standing Ovation): F (0-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in Masters Handicap Chase last time, finishing 17

2 of 10 winners ran in King George last time, finishign 55

2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 66

2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing F2

2 of 10 winners made seasonal debut in Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 15

Last 2 novice chasers to win this had won a chase over 2M 5F at Wincanton earlier that season

 

Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners led or chased leaders

 

Trainers

Philip Hobbs (2-4-12) has won the race three times since 2002 and 6 of his 12 runners in past 10 years have made the frame.

Tom George (2-2-4) saddled Nacarat to win it in 2009 & 2012 and finish 2nd & 3rd in 2010 & 2011.

Paul Nicholls (1-5-16) has saddled 5 of the last 6 favourites of this race and while he did win it in 2008 with Gungadu, 4 of his 7 runners in past 4 years have failed to complete (including all 3 favourites).

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-7) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-7) are the other two trainers with entries that have won the race in the past 10 years

Venetia Williams (0-1-9) & David Pipe (0-0-9) have struggled in this, their 18 collective runners producing no winners and just 1 place.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 12/1

Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals, with no winner going off bigger than 12/1 in the past 10 years.

Horses priced 11/1 or below: 9-14-60 (+13.00)

Horses priced 12/1 or bigger: 1-9-79 (-66.00)

Favourites (1-1-10) have gained just 1 win since 2004, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7 or 8 (or aged 9+ and previously won a graded chase)

- Carrying 10-12+ (top weight does well)

- Officially rated 140 or higher

- Won last time out (or beaten in King George)

- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time

- Run in 2 to 4 chases since August

- Run in 9 or fewer handicap chases, winning 1 to 3

- Won a class 2 race or higher

- Previously finished 1st or 2nd in a listed or graded chase (or is a novice)

- Won over 3M+ (or having first try over 3M+)

- Tends to race prominently

- Course winner (or having first course start)

- Previously won a chase at a right handed track

- Trained by Philip Hobbs or Tom George

- Priced 12/1 or shorter

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#2 2014-02-18 02:28:24

eoinmc
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Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3585

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Tomn George know what it takes to win this, so think Whats Happening is interesting:

1     1711-5    Rajdhani Express98      7    11-12    Nicky Henderson14         155    125    158
2     23-1R1    Bury Parade35      8    11-9    Paul Nicholls57         152    142    162
3     530P-1    Planet Of Sound42      12    11-5    Philip Hobbs59         148    121    164
4     11-3P2    Grandioso35      7    11-4    Paul Nicholls57         147    146    165
5     19P-64    Bless The Wings63    9    11-0    Alan King38         143    97    163
6     1-0102    Midnight Appeal15      9    10-10    Alan King38         139    145    164
7     11252    Whats Happening46      7    10-9    Tom George33         138    124    160
8     102142    Bally Legend22      9    10-9    Caroline Keevil         138    140    162
9     2-5155    Niceonefrankie28    8    10-8    Venetia Williams41         137    152    170
10     0-2312    Ardkilly Witness21      8    10-7    Dr Richard Newland         136    127    160
11     F11117    Standing Ovation99      7    10-4    David Pipe63         133    141    163
12     13426    Jump City21    8    10-3    Paul Nicholls57         132    139    164
13     33412    Baile Anrai28      10    10-3    Dan Skelton         132    135    163
14     74-26P    Tour Des Champs56      7    9-12    Nigel Twiston-Davies31         127    138    165

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#3 2014-02-18 11:57:09

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
Posts: 6689

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

If the ground remains as it is (Soft, Heavy in places), it would be disappointing if Bury Parade got beaten.

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#4 2014-02-18 17:24:08

keano
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Join Date: 2008-03-27
Posts: 3772

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Planet Of Sound ew for me, Hobbs has a good record in the race and Planet Of S was placed in the race 2 years back off a fair higher in the weights. Won well last time so retains enough ability to be in shake up

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#5 2014-02-19 19:20:14

crafty cockney
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Join Date: 2008-03-25
Posts: 1358

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

I like Radjahani Express in this, didn't run badly on one run this season when 5th in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Only Kempton chase run was a win on heavy in December 2012. Carries top weight but has the class, won a grade 2 last season and also at Cheltenham Festival last year

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#6 2014-02-20 00:27:04

mrfleamans
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Join Date: 2011-12-19
Posts: 6689

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Hoping the ground dries out a bit more....want it soft, good to soft in places by sat 0


KEMPTON%20PARK.jpg
CourseKempton Park
Next RaceSaturday 22nd February
Report DateWednesday 19th February; 15:45
GoingSoft (Heavy on bend adjacent to lake)
GoingStickChase: 4.2, Hurdle: 3.9
Additional InformationAll rail moved back onto inside configuration; all distances as advertised
349.jpg
click to enlarge map
 

©Copyright of the above map is under
the sole ownership of TurfTrax  
Weather Forecast
Tuesday; we had 3mm of rain.
Forecast:
Wednesday; risk of a shower; 1mm
Thursday; occasional morning rain; 3mm to 5mm.
Friday; risk of a shower; 1mm to 3mm.
Saturday; overnight rain band; 2mm to 4mm, clearing quickly and
then turning dry with sunny intervals.

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#7 2014-02-20 10:50:10

rightjudgeiam
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Join Date: 2013-03-13
Posts: 325

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Grandioso for me

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#8 2014-02-20 14:06:59

falstar
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Join Date: 2014-01-04
Posts: 477

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Rajdhani Express is a NR

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#9 2014-02-20 14:11:31

happyhammer
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Join Date: 2008-03-26
Posts: 4369

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

rightjudgeiam wrote:


Grandioso for me

Does look the value at the price, has a 4lb pull with Bury Parade and Grandioso's already won a grade 2 at Kempton, so likes the track. 9/1 in Coral works

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#10 2014-02-20 16:15:20

mirrorman
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Join Date: 2013-06-13
Posts: 7

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

niceonefrankie for me for the in form venetia team, should be a nice each way bet

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#11 2014-02-20 17:48:12

falstar
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Join Date: 2014-01-04
Posts: 477

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

bet_zps82de22a8.png

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#12 2014-02-20 17:53:42

falstar
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Join Date: 2014-01-04
Posts: 477

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Capture1_zps5d4622e6.png

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#13 2014-02-20 18:16:43

falstar
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Join Date: 2014-01-04
Posts: 477

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Capture2_zpscb282cc2.png

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#14 2014-02-21 20:51:00

thetimelord
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Join Date: 2013-11-06
Posts: 38

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Standing Ovation @ 10s looks none to shabby an e/w bet

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#15 2014-02-22 12:58:47

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Going with Planet Of Sound, placed in the race before off higher, Hobbs has a good record in this and he won at the track last time

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#16 2014-02-22 15:26:34

happyhammer
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Join Date: 2008-03-26
Posts: 4369

Re: BETBRIGHT CHASE TRENDS 2014

happyhammer wrote:


rightjudgeiam wrote:


Grandioso for me

Does look the value at the price, has a 4lb pull with Bury Parade and Grandioso's already won a grade 2 at Kempton, so likes the track. 9/1 in Coral works

Had a bit more on at 8s today, come on

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