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#1 2014-02-11 23:14:08

racecaller
Administrator
Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6483

ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

The Betfair Ascot Chase takes place on a top quality card at Ascot on Saturday 15th February. A grade 1 chase, run over 2M 5½F it should prove an informative race with a view to the middle distance chase at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. 

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-1-6

7yo: 2-1-5

8yo: 5-3-19

9yo: 1-3-14

10yo: 0-2-14

11yo+: 2-1-10

Horses aged 7 or 8: 7-4-24

Horses aged 9+: 3-6-38

1 of 2 winners aged 10+ was a previous winner & 2 of 3 placed finishers aged 10+ were placed in race before.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August (exception had won previous year's running on last start)

9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 161+ in last 2 starts (exception posted RPR of 156 on penultimate run)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had run at least 6 times over fences (7 of 10 had run in 6 to 9 chases)

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exceptions was 3rd in a grade 1)

9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 (1 exception had won a grade 2 chase)

4 of 10 winners were previous course winners (all 6 exceptions were having their first course start)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) were officially rated 155+

 

Other Races

Colin Parker Memorial Chase winner (Cloudy Too): 1 (1-0-1)

Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Graduation Chase winner (Bury Parade): 13 (1-0-2)

Peterborough Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 33 (0-2-2)

Sodexo Handicap Chase winner (Bury Parade): 35 (0-0-2)

Powers Irish Whiskey Chase winner (Rolling Aces): P57 (0-0-3)

Highest placed finisher from King George: 4FP11121 (4-1-8)

Record of first 3 from King George: F1112 (3-1-5)

5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) ran in the King George, finishing 61325

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in the Old Roan Chase, finishing 241

4 of 4 second season chasers to win it, ran in the Arkle, finishing 5252

The record of horses who finished in the first 5 in the previous season's Arkle is very strong: 21214F121 (4-3-9)

7 of 10 winners finished in first 5 in the Arkle in their novice chase season (2 of other 3 finished in first 6 in RSA Chase at novices)

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (2-0-5) has saddled Riverside Theatre to win in 2011 & 2012.

Paul Nicholls (1-2-10) saddled 1 winner and 2 seconds from 10 runners (7 of 10 sent off 4/1 or shorter).

Alan King (1-1-4) trained the winner in 2009 and runner-up in 2012.

Philip Hobbs (0-1-4) saddled Captain Chris to finish 2nd last year.

 

Price

Last 8 winners were priced under 6/1

7 of the last 8 favourites have won this and only one horse priced in double-figures has been successful in the past 10 years.

Favourites (7-0-10) have gained 7 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.26.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7 or 8 or won this race before

- Run 1 to 4 times this season

- Posted an RPR of 161+ in last 2 starts

- Previously run in at least 6 chases

- Won a grade 1 or 2 chase

- Won or placed in a grade 1 chase

- Won over 2M 4F+

- Officially rated 155+

- Course winner (or having first run here)

- Finished in the first 5 in the Arkle as a novice chaser

- Finished in first 4 in King George or Old Roan Chase

- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Alan King

- Priced below 6/1 (favourite especially)

 

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#2 2014-02-12 10:36:58

boylo
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2009-10-17
Posts: 885

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Riverside Theatre already won the race twice, good comeback win this season, should run well. Captain Chris is one to beat but looks plenty short enough

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#3 2014-02-12 20:08:27

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 972

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

This looks between Captain Chris and Bury Parade imo! Riverside Theatre should be on the premises once again but for minor honors only i feel this time around! Captain chris looks too short at Even Money! So on that note i'll take a chance on Bury Parade Each-Way! 10/1 looks big!

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#4 2014-02-13 10:42:12

james99
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Join Date: 2009-09-09
Posts: 541

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Find it hard to see past Captain Chris, might have won it last year but for a bad error, won well last time and clearly goes best when running right handed

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#5 2014-02-13 11:56:42

eoinmc
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2007-12-02
Posts: 3583

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

The dead 8 declared:

1     264-31    Captain Chris35 t      10    11-7    Philip Hobbs47    Richard Johnson     169    165    177
2     03-101    Cloudy Too51    8    11-7    Sue Smith56    Jonathan England     157    141    169
3     3-6869    Hunt Ball119      9    11-7    Nicky Henderson53         161    160    170
4     7P-553    Kauto Stone28 b      8    11-7    Paul Nicholls50    P Carberry     152    134    162
5     32234/    Medermit674      10    11-7    Alan King53    Robert Thornton     159    —    —
6     646-1U    Riverside Theatre51 b      10    11-7    Nicky Henderson53    Barry Geraghty     163    157    171
7     112-12    Rolling Aces71 p      8    11-7    Paul Nicholls50    Noel Fehily     152    146    166
8     3266-2    Sunny Ledgend27    9    11-7    Andrew J Martin33    Mr J Martin     127    119    143

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#6 2014-02-13 17:08:46

mattchap
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Join Date: 2013-07-12
Posts: 1879

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Captain Chris pisses this

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#7 2014-02-13 20:28:25

buckeyebatter
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2013-06-23
Posts: 34

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Will take him on with Riverside Theatre, can't ignore his track record

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#8 2014-02-15 01:10:05

statsman
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2009-02-26
Posts: 1352

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

Since 2012, Cloudy Too's record over fences over 2m4f to 2m6f is 4 wins and a 3rd from 5 runs. All 5 of his wins in chases have come on soft or heavy and he showed he has really stamina too when he won the Rowland Meyrick last time. This is a big step up in class but Sue Smith's horses are running well and Jonathan England is 4 from 7 on board, he could surprise a few more established grade 1 performers 

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#9 2014-02-15 17:21:11

statsman
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Join Date: 2009-02-26
Posts: 1352

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

james99 wrote:


Find it hard to see past Captain Chris, might have won it last year but for a bad error, won well last time and clearly goes best when running right handed


Pity he doesn't seem as good left handed, so presume he skips Cheltenham

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#10 2014-02-16 18:26:57

happyhammer
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Join Date: 2008-03-26
Posts: 4367

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

statsman wrote:


james99 wrote:


Find it hard to see past Captain Chris, might have won it last year but for a bad error, won well last time and clearly goes best when running right handed


Pity he doesn't seem as good left handed, so presume he skips Cheltenham

According to the Racing Post, he might actually go for the Gold Cup, do think they might be better saving him for Punchestown

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#11 2014-02-16 22:39:08

jgannon
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2008-05-12
Posts: 1983

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2014

happyhammer wrote:


statsman wrote:


james99 wrote:


Find it hard to see past Captain Chris, might have won it last year but for a bad error, won well last time and clearly goes best when running right handed


Pity he doesn't seem as good left handed, so presume he skips Cheltenham

According to the Racing Post, he might actually go for the Gold Cup, do think they might be better saving him for Punchestown

There's a big enough gap between Cheltenham and Punchestown for him to recover from a tough race in the Gold Cup

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