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#1 2014-04-22 16:03:48

racecaller
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2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 3rd May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years, with 8 of the last 12 going to horses from across the Irish Sea.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age

Race for 3yos

 

Breeding

British breds: 5-7-65

Irish breds: 4-11-65

American breds: 1-0-32

French breds: 0-2-2

6 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & 2 others had won the Irish Derby).

8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (2 exceptions by Galileo & Montjeu)

Progeny of Dubawi: 123 (1-2-3)

Progeny of Galileo: 243016 (1-2-6)

Progeny of Montjeu: 061 (1-0-3)

 

Recent Form

8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 85+ on debut

6 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket or Curragh

7 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (3 exceptions were unbeaten in 2 runs)

Last 4 winners were unbeaten coming into the race

9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)

10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (2 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time

9 of 10 winners had won at group level (exception placed in a group 2)

7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (3 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial on only start that year)

9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 5 were having first run here)

3 of 3 British-trained winners won their maiden at Newmarket in July or August

 

2yo Races

Dewhust winner (War Command): 82211 (2-2-5)

Coventry Stakes winner (War Command): 0001301 (2-1-7)

National Stakes winner (Toormore): 05125701 (2-1-8)

Beresford Stakes winner (Geoffre Chaucer): 35160 (1-1-5)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Geoffrey Chaucer): 01 (1-0-2)

Phoenix Stakes winner (Sudirman): 015 (1-0-3)

Railway Stakes winner (Sudirman): 0615 (1-0-4)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 0601 (1-0-4)

Weatherbys EBF Maiden winner (True Story): 53 (0-1-2)

Prix Morny winner (No Nay Never): 53 (0-1-2)

Middle Park Stakes winner (Astaire): 730 (0-1-3)

Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 482 (0-1-3)

Vintage Stakes (Toormore): 284 (0-1-3)

Solario Stakes winner (Kingman): 0043 (0-1-4)

Champagne Stakes winner (Outstrip): 02044 (0-1-5)

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Karakontie): 48 (0-0-2)

July Stakes winner (Anjaal): 07 (0-0-2)

Gimcrack Stakes winner (Astaire): 879 (0-0-3)

Tattersalls Stakes winner (Miracle Of Medinah): 808 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 311

2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 33

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the National Stakes

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the Coventry Stakes

 

3yo Trials

Greenham Stakes winner (Kingman): 66219 (1-1-5)

Craven Stakes winner (Toormore): 160025344 (1-2-9)

Prix Djebel winner (Charm Spirit): 5712 (1-1-4)

Free Handicap winner (Shifting Power): 507087 (0-0-6)

All 3 winners that had run that season won on their only start in the Greenham, Craven & Prix Djebel.

 

Trainers

Irish trained runners (6-3-35) have won 8 of the last 12 runnings.

French-trained runners (1-2-6) were responsible for winner in 2010 and 2nd & 3rd in 2012 and weren’t represented in 2011 & 2013.

Aidan O’Brien (4-0-23) has trained 5 winners of the race since 2002.

Jim Bolger (1-2-5) trained Dawn Approach to win this last year and his 3 runners prior to last year finished 6th, 2nd and 3rd.

Mikel Delzangles (1-1-2) & John Oxx (1-1-3) have both saddled a winner and placed finisher since 2004.

Richard Hannon yard (0-4-15) has saddled 4 of 12 placed finishers in past 4 renewals.

Michael Stoute (0-0-6) trained 5 winners of this between 1985 & 2001 but his all 6 of his runners in past 10 years have been unplaced.

Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-10) trained the winner in 1996 & 1999 but his 21 runners since 2000 have yielded no winners and just 1 place.

John Gosden (0-0-3) & Mark Johnston (0-0-3) have both seen their 3 runners in past 10 years finish unplaced.  

 

Price

No strong trends on prices.

Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of last 10 (including last 3), giving a level stakes loss of 0.75.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Sired by a group 1 winner, that finished in first 4 in a 2000 Guineas or won Irish Derby

- Progeny of Dubawi & Galileo do well

- Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 85+

- Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)

- Previously won at least 2 races

- Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)

- Posted an RPR of 110+ last time

- Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)

- Won a group race

- Won the Dewhurst, Coventry and/or National Stakes

- Won over 7F or 8F

- Trained by Mikel Dezangles or in Ireland (by Aidan O’Brien, John Oxx or Jim Bolger) or

- British-trained that won maiden at Newmarket & finished in first 3 in Champagne Stakes

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#2 2014-04-22 16:59:44

jimpy
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

i have backed the Spanish horse ( Noozhoh Canarias) for this e/way based on the value theory, it's not all about finding winners. 16/1 general

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#3 2014-04-23 15:47:45

baazzaa
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

I'm still keen on war command , I like the way he's won the Coventry
And and the dewhust , which are great pointers
For classic glory .

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#4 2014-04-23 19:39:14

stu3105
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!

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#5 2014-04-23 20:03:03

jimpy
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

stu3105 wrote:


If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!
38/5 toormore on betfair , if you take 5/1 you will be short changed. also 23/1 war command on betfair , Aiden says they will both run [australia & toormore] but i don't know.

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#6 2014-04-23 20:41:25

pk75
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

stu3105 wrote:


If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!
You believe Toormore and War Command "are just the 2 possible contenders" for the 2000G!! As proved by Shutthefrontdoor brilliantly tipped up by pricewise to land the Irish National, trends are not something to follow blindly. Kingman if it lines up wins imo, one that could be a lively dark horse for me is True Story @ 25/1 eway if theres plenty of pace to the race, which there should be.

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#7 2014-04-23 22:47:47

stu3105
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

pk75 wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!
You believe Toormore and War Command "are just the 2 possible contenders" for the 2000G!! As proved by Shutthefrontdoor brilliantly tipped up by pricewise to land the Irish National, trends are not something to follow blindly. Kingman if it lines up wins imo, one that could be a lively dark horse for me is True Story @ 25/1 eway if theres plenty of pace to the race, which there should be.
Kingman does have a Favorite's chance admittedly and looks the 1 they have to beat on current Form,However 5/4 looks very Short for a Big Yard that has a Dismal Record in the Race, Toormore has an obvious chance and my reasoning behind War Command is 14/1 looks Massive based on his Coventry Stakes Success last year,if reproducing that kind of Performance then he surely represents the best current Value in the Race, best Pointers for this in terms of key Races are the Coventry and the Dewhurst in which War Command Won both Contests very impressively,seems to deliver his best performances when seemingly unfancied and therefore available at decent Odds, I do respect Kingman but at current odds he's worth taking on imo, Does not mean that he can't Win it,but feel that there is better Value to be had at this moment in time, As this is still Priced up as an Ante-post Race imo it should be about finding the Best Value, I feel that i have done that with my 2 Selections!! The Dark Horse could well be Charm Spirit for a Top French Trainer who is very shrewd and and has proved already that his Visits across this side of the Channel have to be taken very seriously, If this Horse lines up ,underestimate his chance at your own peril!! Good Luck with Kingman PK75 Who is the most obvious choice to be honest!! BYE!

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#8 2014-04-23 23:18:47

stu3105
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

jimpy wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!
38/5 toormore on betfair , if you take 5/1 you will be short changed. also 23/1 war command on betfair , Aiden says they will both run [australia & toormore] but i don't know.
Might well be Jimpy but i don't deal with Betfair Mate, only have Accounts with Stan James, William Hills and Bet Victor!! Cheers anyway!

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#9 2014-04-24 00:20:23

pk75
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Join Date: 2010-02-01
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

stu3105 wrote:


pk75 wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!
You believe Toormore and War Command "are just the 2 possible contenders" for the 2000G!! As proved by Shutthefrontdoor brilliantly tipped up by pricewise to land the Irish National, trends are not something to follow blindly. Kingman if it lines up wins imo, one that could be a lively dark horse for me is True Story @ 25/1 eway if theres plenty of pace to the race, which there should be.
Kingman does have a Favorite's chance admittedly and looks the 1 they have to beat on current Form,However 5/4 looks very Short for a Big Yard that has a Dismal Record in the Race, Toormore has an obvious chance and my reasoning behind War Command is 14/1 looks Massive based on his Coventry Stakes Success last year,if reproducing that kind of Performance then he surely represents the best current Value in the Race, best Pointers for this in terms of key Races are the Coventry and the Dewhurst in which War Command Won both Contests very impressively,seems to deliver his best performances when seemingly unfancied and therefore available at decent Odds, I do respect Kingman but at current odds he's worth taking on imo, Does not mean that he can't Win it,but feel that there is better Value to be had at this moment in time, As this is still Priced up as an Ante-post Race imo it should be about finding the Best Value, I feel that i have done that with my 2 Selections!! The Dark Horse could well be Charm Spirit for a Top French Trainer who is very shrewd and and has proved already that his Visits across this side of the Channel have to be taken very seriously, If this Horse lines up ,underestimate his chance at your own peril!! Good Luck with Kingman PK75 Who is the most obvious choice to be honest!! BYE!
Instead of drawn out labourious posts, i will keep this short0 Nothing mentioned in your previous post was about the value bet in the Guineas..   Simply put in your own words:  If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!        One thing i do agree with you tho is that Kingman is no value at the current odds, as i and a few others have already pointed out on a seperate thread yesterday, fortunately i backed and posted Kingman up on here last autumn!! So im hardly following the "obvious choice" now am i hey0

Last edited by pk75 (2014-04-24 00:24:29)

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#10 2014-04-24 01:25:02

seriousangle
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

I do think Kingman could be hard to beat especially having already had that first run of the season in the Greenham. He does look a serious animal, and I'm not convinced with the O'Brien pair. War Command for me is a horse that will be better over 6f-7f, while Australia might find the 1m a bit too fast for him here, he is bred for middle distances been by Galileo out of Ouija Board, and I think he could get left behind by a few of the speedier types like Kingman. At a price, Charm Spirit could be the one for Freddie Head. Head seems very bullish about his chances, and he will improve for the better ground. They don't get better ground often in France so we could see an improved horse now he comes over here and the French always have to be feared when they send horses over here.

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#11 2014-04-24 01:28:59

mylo
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Instead of drawn out labourious posts, i will keep this short0 Nothing mentioned in your previous post was about the value bet in the Guineas..   Simply put in your own words:  If what iv'e just Read is True then there are just the 2 possible Contenders that can Win this, They are TOORMORE AND WAR COMMAND!! 5/1 AND 14/1 BOTH LOOK GREAT VALUE BETS IMO!!!        One thing i do agree with you tho is that Kingman is no value at the current odds, as i and a few others have already pointed out on a seperate thread yesterday, fortunately i backed and posted Kingman up on here last autumn!! So im hardly following the "obvious choice" now am i hey0




Don't be too concerned about it pk. Once stu has decided on his selections for Big races he just adopts a very dogmatic view happens all the time, the don't back these at your peril sort of stuff.

The ante post market for the Guineas is priced just about right at the moment, the horse in question Toormoor is about right a 7/1 give or take and War Command who I backed at 35 only recently is still available at 26 on betfair. The reason is not that as stated ie he is unfancied ( anyone one who thinks that the winner of the Coventry an Dewhurst could be unfancied for the Guineas must be naive in the extreme) it is  that Obrien has made it clear to all that Newmarket is not the first preference for the horse, therefore the bookies have factored this into the price but at those sort of odds personally I will take the risk of a run.

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#12 2014-04-24 09:43:26

baazzaa
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

O, brien confirmed that war command goes for the 2000 guineas
And I believe that him going to France was poppy cock all along
. You have to remember that this horse is part owned and probably and probably major
Share holder is J Allen who owns the sire War front same colours so they are going to be looking
For English classic glory .if we use stubbs and night of thunder
As form lines we see that there nothing between kingman and war command .
War command to me looks way over priced .as pointed our the Coventry and dewhust
Are massive pointers ,he was described as being a big raw horse so
You'd have to think he's developed over the summer.

Australia I think could run a massive race , beating free eagle
By six lengths is impressive and that solid form as I reckon that free
Eagle is a good horse .

I'm sticking by my theory that invincible
Spirit is not a classic getter and that has me put off kingman and charm
Spirit .

Tramoore beat surdiman and if we take that form
Then he has a massive chance as the latter beat war command , however
I think war command didn't have a great ride that day and 6f was too short fir him
Against a good animal ,tramore looks a good animal and looks straight forward in terms of form .

Just looking at breeding , over the past few yeas it's been classic winners
Producing classic winners , and alot of horses in there
That have the Derby,frankel by Galileo
As was dawn approach , Camelot by montjeu , sea the stars dam urban sea,
Makfi by Dubawi a guineas winner,

So on summary I'll be backing Australia as he has those royal bloodlines
Which seem to be winning classics in more recent years ,
And war command as he has the 2year wins in the Coventry and
Dewhurst.

Last edited by baazzaa (2014-04-24 09:45:22)

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#13 2014-04-24 13:08:12

mylo
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Posts: 1337

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

baazzaa wrote:


O, brien confirmed that war command goes for the 2000 guineas

And I believe that him going to France was poppy cock all along

. You have to remember that this horse is part owned and probably and probably major

Share holder is J Allen who owns the sire War front same colours so they are going to be looking

For English classic glory .if we use stubbs and night of thunder

As form lines we see that there nothing between kingman and war command .

War command to me looks way over priced .as pointed our the Coventry and dewhust

Are massive pointers ,he was described as being a big raw horse so

You'd have to think he's developed over the summer.


Australia I think could run a massive race , beating free eagle

By six lengths is impressive and that solid form as I reckon that free

Eagle is a good horse .


I'm sticking by my theory that invincible

Spirit is not a classic getter and that has me put off kingman and charm

Spirit .


Tramoore beat surdiman and if we take that form

Then he has a massive chance as the latter beat war command , however

I think war command didn't have a great ride that day and 6f was too short fir him

Against a good animal ,tramore looks a good animal and looks straight forward in terms of form .


Just looking at breeding , over the past few yeas it's been classic winners

Producing classic winners , and alot of horses in there

That have the Derby,frankel by Galileo

As was dawn approach , Camelot by montjeu , sea the stars dam urban sea,

Makfi by Dubawi a guineas winner,


So on summary I'll be backing Australia as he has those royal bloodlines

Which seem to be winning classics in more recent years ,

And war command as he has the 2year wins in the Coventry and

Dewhurst.


War Command was described as a big raw horse? I can find no reference to this in fact the opposite he is the only colt in the last 12 months that has got the description ''well made good sort'' from Raceform. This description has been given to many Classic Winners over the years that is why I'm slightly surprised it was not the choice of Mordin but there again there's still time

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#14 2014-04-24 13:40:20

noelmurless
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Join Date: 2010-03-16
Posts: 96

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014



O, brien confirmed that war command goes for the 2000 guineas

And I believe that him going to France was poppy cock all along

. You have to remember that this horse is part owned and probably and probably major

Share holder is J Allen who owns the sire War front same colours so they are going to be looking

For English classic glory .if we use stubbs and night of thunder

As form lines we see that there nothing between kingman and war command .

War command to me looks way over priced .as pointed our the Coventry and dewhust

Are massive pointers ,he was described as being a big raw horse so

You'd have to think he's developed over the summer.


Australia I think could run a massive race , beating free eagle

By six lengths is impressive and that solid form as I reckon that free

Eagle is a good horse .


I'm sticking by my theory that invincible

Spirit is not a classic getter and that has me put off kingman and charm

Spirit .


Tramoore beat surdiman and if we take that form

Then he has a massive chance as the latter beat war command , however

I think war command didn't have a great ride that day and 6f was too short fir him

Against a good animal ,tramore looks a good animal and looks straight forward in terms of form .


Just looking at breeding , over the past few yeas it's been classic winners

Producing classic winners , and alot of horses in there

That have the Derby,frankel by Galileo

As was dawn approach , Camelot by montjeu , sea the stars dam urban sea,

Makfi by Dubawi a guineas winner,


So on summary I'll be backing Australia as he has those royal bloodlines

Which seem to be winning classics in more recent years ,

And war command as he has the 2year wins in the Coventry and

Dewhurst.
 Its tramore all the way for me.

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#15 2014-04-24 13:47:12

noelmurless
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Join Date: 2010-03-16
Posts: 96

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

mylo wrote:


baazzaa wrote:


O, brien confirmed that war command goes for the 2000 guineas


And I believe that him going to France was poppy cock all along


. You have to remember that this horse is part owned and probably and probably major


Share holder is J Allen who owns the sire War front same colours so they are going to be looking


For English classic glory .if we use stubbs and night of thunder


As form lines we see that there nothing between kingman and war command .


War command to me looks way over priced .as pointed our the Coventry and dewhust


Are massive pointers ,he was described as being a big raw horse so


You'd have to think he's developed over the summer.



Australia I think could run a massive race , beating free eagle


By six lengths is impressive and that solid form as I reckon that free


Eagle is a good horse .



I'm sticking by my theory that invincible


Spirit is not a classic getter and that has me put off kingman and charm


Spirit .



Tramoore beat surdiman and if we take that form


Then he has a massive chance as the latter beat war command , however


I think war command didn't have a great ride that day and 6f was too short fir him


Against a good animal ,tramore looks a good animal and looks straight forward in terms of form .



Just looking at breeding , over the past few yeas it's been classic winners


Producing classic winners , and alot of horses in there


That have the Derby,frankel by Galileo


As was dawn approach , Camelot by montjeu , sea the stars dam urban sea,


Makfi by Dubawi a guineas winner,



So on summary I'll be backing Australia as he has those royal bloodlines


Which seem to be winning classics in more recent years ,


And war command as he has the 2year wins in the Coventry and


Dewhurst.


War Command was described as a big raw horse? I can find no reference to this in fact the opposite he is the only colt in the last 12 months that has got the description ''well made good sort'' from Raceform. This description has been given to many Classic Winners over the years that is why I'm slightly surprised it was not the choice of Mordin but there again there's still time

Not forgetting Australia is the latest "best horse I have ever trained" according to Mr obrien

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#16 2014-04-24 15:18:14

baazzaa
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Join Date: 2010-06-10
Posts: 1345

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

noelmurless wrote:


mylo wrote:


baazzaa wrote:


O, brien confirmed that war command goes for the 2000 guineas



And I believe that him going to France was poppy cock all along



. You have to remember that this horse is part owned and probably and probably major



Share holder is J Allen who owns the sire War front same colours so they are going to be looking



For English classic glory .if we use stubbs and night of thunder



As form lines we see that there nothing between kingman and war command .



War command to me looks way over priced .as pointed our the Coventry and dewhust



Are massive pointers ,he was described as being a big raw horse so



You'd have to think he's developed over the summer.




Australia I think could run a massive race , beating free eagle



By six lengths is impressive and that solid form as I reckon that free



Eagle is a good horse .




I'm sticking by my theory that invincible



Spirit is not a classic getter and that has me put off kingman and charm



Spirit .




Tramoore beat surdiman and if we take that form





Then he has a massive chance as the latter beat war command , however



I think war command didn't have a great ride that day and 6f was too short fir him



Against a good animal ,tramore looks a good animal and looks straight forward in terms of form .




Just looking at breeding , over the past few yeas it's been classic winners



Producing classic winners , and alot of horses in there



That have the Derby,frankel by Galileo



As was dawn approach , Camelot by montjeu , sea the stars dam urban sea,



Makfi by Dubawi a guineas winner,




So on summary I'll be backing Australia as he has those royal bloodlines



Which seem to be winning classics in more recent years ,



And war command as he has the 2year wins in the Coventry and



Dewhurst.


War Command was described as a big raw horse? I can find no reference to this in fact the opposite he is the only colt in the last 12 months that has got the description ''well made good sort'' from Raceform. This description has been given to many Classic Winners over the years that is why I'm slightly surprised it was not the choice of Mordin but there again there's still time

Not forgetting Australia is the latest "best horse I have ever trained" according to Mr obrien
<

Joseph I brief said he was big raw horse after
He won the dewhurst, they were his comments .

Yes I brien Aidan usually does say he has a best ever every season

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#17 2014-04-24 15:32:11

mylo
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Thanks baazzaa for clarifying that. I suppose if the horse could talk he might have been saying that about the jockey!!

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#18 2014-04-24 15:53:43

baazzaa
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Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

mylo wrote:


Thanks baazzaa for clarifying that. I suppose if the horse could talk he might have been saying that about the jockey!!



Lol yeah , he prob would .

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#19 2014-04-24 21:49:25

noelmurless
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Join Date: 2010-03-16
Posts: 96

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

 I am a big Toormore fan and am still very hopeful he will win next week.I was not convinced about Kingman until Newbury and had to view the race a few times just to make sure it was not Dancing Brave I was watching,the way he cruised to two out and his turn of foot to put the race to bed was visually really impressive.Having heavily invested in Toormore I may be clutching at straws but I have a few reasons to think Toormore is good value at around 7/1.

  At Newbury Knight of thunder was a well beaten second but he was switched at a vital stage of the race and not beaten about when Ryan Moore new the game was up.The Hannons expect him to be closer come guineas day.

 Kingman in my view looked really ready to go before the race,i wonder how much improvement there is to come?

 Toormore is regarded far superior to Knight of thunder by the Hannons .When he made his reappearance at Newmarket he looked like he would come on for the run(7 to 10 pounds Richard Hannon says) and he showed without doubt he stays a mile.

 Toomores juvenile form was the best by far,but it is his attitude more than anything that makes me sure he is top drawer,the turn of foot he showed at Goodwood to beat a future breeders cup juvenile winner was ultra impressive,in Ireland he did it the hard way and made all against group 1 opposition to win cosily.

 I think it is a two horse race but Toormore  to me looks to have everything needed to win a good 2000 guineas and I fully expect him to do so.

 I have thrown the straws away after writing this.

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#20 2014-04-25 07:32:47

loanshark
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Join Date: 2011-07-21
Posts: 2619

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Well I have gone against all the trends and the stable fancies. Have taken 33-1 about SHIFTING POWER each way and feel I shall be collecting something !

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#21 2014-04-25 09:23:44

baazzaa
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2010-06-10
Posts: 1345

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

noelmurless wrote:


I am a big Toormore fan and am still very hopeful he will win next week.I was not convinced about Kingman until Newbury and had toview the race a few times just to make sure it was not Dancing Brave I was watching,the way he cruised to two out and his turn of foot to put the race to bed was visually really impressive.Having heavily invested in Toormore I may be clutching at straws but I have a few reasons to think Toormore is good value at around 7/1.

At Newbury Knight of thunder was a well beaten second but he was switched at a vital stage of the race and not beaten about when Ryan Moore new the game was up.The Hannons expect him to be closer come guineas day.

Kingman in my view looked really ready to go before the race,i wonder how much improvement there is to come?

Toormore is regarded far superior to Knight of thunder by the Hannons .When he made his reappearance at Newmarket he looked like he would come on for the run(7 to 10 pounds Richard Hannon says) and he showed without doubt he stays a mile.

Toomores juvenile form was the best by far,but it is his attitude more than anything that makes me sure he is top drawer,the turn of foot he showed at Goodwood to beat a future breeders cup juvenile winner was ultra impressive,in Ireland he did it the hard way and made all against group 1 opposition to win cosily.

I think it is a two horse race but Toormore to me looks to have everything needed to win a good 2000 guineas and I fully expect him to do so.

I have thrown the straws away after writing this.




Fair point about kingsman pal , he may have been more wound up
. But toormore form as a two your old would be about equal to war command
, if we use surdiman and parboid as form lines .

He's by arakan , who sired dick Turpin and
Trumpet major, who were both good but just short of whst you'd
Call classic class , as was arakan himself good but not stand out .
Which makes ask the question is troomore good enough !!

Last edited by baazzaa (2014-04-25 14:22:15)

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#22 2014-04-25 13:01:34

neptune collonges
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2014-03-10
Posts: 40

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Outstrip is a big price at 55 on Betfair if the ground comes up good or better, not beaten far by War Command at Newmarket when he lost his action in the dip due to the soft ground, improved to win the Juvenile Turf at the Breeders' Cup when a strong run mile really suited

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#23 2014-04-25 18:46:19

noelmurless
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2010-03-16
Posts: 96

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

baazzaa wrote:


noelmurless wrote:


I am a big Toormore fan and am still very hopeful he will win next week.I was not convinced about Kingman until Newbury and had toview the race a few times just to make sure it was not Dancing Brave I was watching,the way he cruised to two out and his turn of foot to put the race to bed was visually really impressive.Having heavily invested in Toormore I may be clutching at straws but I have a few reasons to think Toormore is good value at around 7/1.

At Newbury Knight of thunder was a well beaten second but he was switched at a vital stage of the race and not beaten about when Ryan Moore new the game was up.The Hannons expect him to be closer come guineas day.

Kingman in my view looked really ready to go before the race,i wonder how much improvement there is to come?

Toormore is regarded far superior to Knight of thunder by the Hannons .When he made his reappearance at Newmarket he looked like he would come on for the run(7 to 10 pounds Richard Hannon says) and he showed without doubt he stays a mile.

Toomores juvenile form was the best by far,but it is his attitude more than anything that makes me sure he is top drawer,the turn of foot he showed at Goodwood to beat a future breeders cup juvenile winner was ultra impressive,in Ireland he did it the hard way and made all against group 1 opposition to win cosily.

I think it is a two horse race but Toormore to me looks to have everything needed to win a good 2000 guineas and I fully expect him to do so.

I have thrown the straws away after writing this.





Fair point about kingsman pal , he may have been more wound up

. But toormore form as a two your old would be about equal to war command

, if we use surdiman and parboid as form lines .


He's by arakan , who sired dick Turpin and

Trumpet major, who were both good but just short of whst you'd

Call classic class , as was arakan himself good but not stand out .

Which makes ask the question is troomore good enough !!

   I would not worry about his sire.Racing is littered with great horses by unfashionable stallions,Brigadier Gerard one of the greatest milers ever was by Queens Hussar who at the time was nothing special as a sire.

  I notice the 2 horses you mentioned above(by Arakan) were trained by the Hannons and went close in a couple of guineas,i would suggest that they are not in the same league as Toormore so  I would answer the question with an emphatic yes. 

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#24 2014-04-26 22:24:12

mylo
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2011-05-03
Posts: 1337

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

noelmurless wrote:


baazzaa wrote:


noelmurless wrote:


I am a big Toormore fan and am still very hopeful he will win next week.I was not convinced about Kingman until Newbury and had toview the race a few times just to make sure it was not Dancing Brave I was watching,the way he cruised to two out and his turn of foot to put the race to bed was visually really impressive.Having heavily invested in Toormore I may be clutching at straws but I have a few reasons to think Toormore is good value at around 7/1.

At Newbury Knight of thunder was a well beaten second but he was switched at a vital stage of the race and not beaten about when Ryan Moore new the game was up.The Hannons expect him to be closer come guineas day.

Kingman in my view looked really ready to go before the race,i wonder how much improvement there is to come?

Toormore is regarded far superior to Knight of thunder by the Hannons .When he made his reappearance at Newmarket he looked like he would come on for the run(7 to 10 pounds Richard Hannon says) and he showed without doubt he stays a mile.

Toomores juvenile form was the best by far,but it is his attitude more than anything that makes me sure he is top drawer,the turn of foot he showed at Goodwood to beat a future breeders cup juvenile winner was ultra impressive,in Ireland he did it the hard way and made all against group 1 opposition to win cosily.

I think it is a two horse race but Toormore to me looks to have everything needed to win a good 2000 guineas and I fully expect him to do so.

I have thrown the straws away after writing this.






Fair point about kingsman pal , he may have been more wound up


. But toormore form as a two your old would be about equal to war command


, if we use surdiman and parboid as form lines .



He's by arakan , who sired dick Turpin and


Trumpet major, who were both good but just short of whst you'd


Call classic class , as was arakan himself good but not stand out .


Which makes ask the question is troomore good enough !!

   I would not worry about his sire.Racing is littered with great horses by unfashionable stallions,Brigadier Gerard one of the greatest milers ever was by Queens Hussar who at the time was nothing special as a sire.

  I notice the 2 horses you mentioned above(by Arakan) were trained by the Hannons and went close in a couple of guineas,i would suggest that they are not in the same league as Toormore so  I would answer the question with an emphatic yes. 



Everything is up for discussion that's what a forum is for but do be serious Toormoor has little to no chance, like some inferior Craven winners he might  grab a place and pick up a race later in the season.

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#25 2014-04-27 09:44:19

noelmurless
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2010-03-16
Posts: 96

Re: 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

mylo wrote:


noelmurless wrote:


baazzaa wrote:


noelmurless wrote:


I am a big Toormore fan and am still very hopeful he will win next week.I was not convinced about Kingman until Newbury and had toview the race a few times just to make sure it was not Dancing Brave I was watching,the way he cruised to two out and his turn of foot to put the race to bed was visually really impressive.Having heavily invested in Toormore I may be clutching at straws but I have a few reasons to think Toormore is good value at around 7/1.

At Newbury Knight of thunder was a well beaten second but he was switched at a vital stage of the race and not beaten about when Ryan Moore new the game was up.The Hannons expect him to be closer come guineas day.

Kingman in my view looked really ready to go before the race,i wonder how much improvement there is to come?

Toormore is regarded far superior to Knight of thunder by the Hannons .When he made his reappearance at Newmarket he looked like he would come on for the run(7 to 10 pounds Richard Hannon says) and he showed without doubt he stays a mile.

Toomores juvenile form was the best by far,but it is his attitude more than anything that makes me sure he is top drawer,the turn of foot he showed at Goodwood to beat a future breeders cup juvenile winner was ultra impressive,in Ireland he did it the hard way and made all against group 1 opposition to win cosily.

I think it is a two horse race but Toormore to me looks to have everything needed to win a good 2000 guineas and I fully expect him to do so.

I have thrown the straws away after writing this.







Fair point about kingsman pal , he may have been more wound up



. But toormore form as a two your old would be about equal to war command



, if we use surdiman and parboid as form lines .




He's by arakan , who sired dick Turpin and



Trumpet major, who were both good but just short of whst you'd



Call classic class , as was arakan himself good but not stand out .



Which makes ask the question is troomore good enough !!

   I would not worry about his sire.Racing is littered with great horses by unfashionable stallions,Brigadier Gerard one of the greatest milers ever was by Queens Hussar who at the time was nothing special as a sire.

  I notice the 2 horses you mentioned above(by Arakan) were trained by the Hannons and went close in a couple of guineas,i would suggest that they are not in the same league as Toormore so  I would answer the question with an emphatic yes. 



Everything is up for discussion that's what a forum is for but do be serious Toormoor has little to no chance, like some inferior Craven winners he might  grab a place and pick up a race later in the season.

   I am humbled by your infinite wisdom,roll on may 3

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