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#1 2014-04-22 22:45:39

racecaller
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1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

The Qipco 1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket on Sunday, 4th May. Run over a mile for fillies only, it has thrown up a few surprise results in the past few years, with Ghanaati in 2009 winning at 20/1, Blue Bunting at 16/1 in 2011 and Homecoming Queen at 25/1 in 2012. Jacqueline Quest at 66/1 was first past the post in 2010 but subsequently disqualified.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age

Race for 3yos

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 4-10-70

American bred: 3-3-24

British bred: 2-6-67

French bred: 1-0-2

Japan Bred: 0-1-1

UAE bred: 0-0-2

Horses bred in GB & Ire: 6-16-137

Horse bred outside of GB & Ire: 4-4-29

American bred horses have won 4 of last 11 runnings.

9 of 10 were by a sire that finished in first 2 in a group 1 over 6F to 1M

Progeny of Giants Causeway: 21 (1-1-2)

Progeny of Holy Roman Emperor: 016 (1-0-3)

Progeny of Galileo: 6230233 (0-5-7)

Progeny of Selkirk: 32 (0-2-2)

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 105+ last time (2 exceptions posted a career high RPR last time)

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Newmarket (3 exceptions had yet to run there & other was 2nd in two group 3's on 2 runs here)

9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (exception had yet to run in a class 1 race)

9 of 10 winners won or placed on first turf start as a 2yo (exception was unplaced in a group 3 on debut as a 2yo)

9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times as a 2yo

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice

4 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (4 of other won a recognised Guineas Trial last time & 2 others placed in a Guineas Trial)

10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F

 

2yo Races

Rockfel Stakes winner (Al Thakhira): 021100602 (2-2-9)

Prix Robert Papin winner (Vorda): 11 (2-0-2)

Cheveley Park Stakes winner (Vorda): 6051718 (2-0-7)

Moyglare Stud Stakes (Rizeena): 0703031 (1-2-7)

Coolmore Stud EBF Sprint Stakes winner (Sandiva): 21 (1-1-2)

Queen Mary Stakes winner (Rizeena): 103 (1-1-3)

Loder European Breeders Fund 2yo Fillies Race winner (Terrific): 1835 (1-1-4)

Prix La Fleche winner (Vorda): 1 (1-0-1)

British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing EBF Maiden winner (Kiyoshi): 01 (1-0-2)

Montrose Stakes winner (Majeyda): 01 (1-0-2)

Staffordstown Stud Stakes winner (Flying Jib): 01 (1-0-2)

Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Indonesienne): 010 (1-0-3)

Duchess of Cambridge Stakes winner (Lucky Kristale): 1000 (1-0-4)

May Hill winner (Ihtimal): 7332509 (0-3-7)

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Wonderfully): 23 (0-2-2)

Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Ihtimal): 42350 (0-2-5)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Bracelet): 2 (0-1-1)

Weld Park Stakes winner (My Titania): 2 (0-1-1)

Star Stakes winner (Majeyda): 20 (0-1-2)

Debutante Stakes winner (Tapestry): 0703 (0-1-4)

Albany Stakes winner (Kiyoshi): 089280 (0-1-6)

Princess Margaret Stakes winner (Princess Noor): 76 (0-0-2)

Dick Poole Stakes winner (Joyeuse): 04 (0-0-2)

Bosra Sham Stakes winner (Cape Factor): 06 (0-0-2)

Prestige Stakes winner (Amazing Maria): 040 (0-0-3)

Oh So Sharp Stakes winner (Miss France): 0806 (0-0-4)

Lowther Stakes winner (Lucky Kristale): 6058 (0-0-4)

2 of 2 French-trained winners ran in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11

2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 22

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Weld Park Stakes, finishing 32

2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Coolmore Fillies Sprint Stakes, finishing 91

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, finishing 08

 

3yo Trials

Leopardstown 1000 Guineas winner (Bracelet): 1201 (2-1-4)

Nell Gwynn Stakes winner (Sandiva): 84174659 (1-0-8)

Fred Darling winner (J Wonder): 903806 (0-1-6)

UAE Oaks winner (Ihtimal): 00 (0-0-2)

2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 13

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial, finishing 11

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Nell Gwynn last time, finishing 12

 

Trainers

British trained runners: 5-13-124

Irish trained runners: 3-7-35

French trained runners: 2-0-6

French-trained runners (2-0-6) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 8 runners since 2003. Both winners had won a group race against colts as 2yos and also finished in first 2 in a group 1 against colts.

Aidan O’Brien (2-3-16) trained the winner in 2005, the 2nd in 2011, the 1st & 3rd in 2012 & 3rd in 2013.

Jim Bolger (1-3-7) has had 1 winners and 3 places from 7 runners.

Richard Hannon yard (1-1-8) has been responsible for Nasheej to finish 3rd in 2006 and Sky Lantern to win it last year.  

The Cecil Yard (0-1-2) has saddled the winner of this 6 times, and saddled 3 winners in 4 years between 1996 & 1999. Their 2 runners since 2004 have been Jacqueline Quest (1st past post in 2010, demoted to 2nd) and unplaced favourite, Hot Snap, in 2013.

Trainers who have not done so well in the race recently include John Gosden (0-1-8), Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-10), Clive Brittain (0-0-6), Michael Stoute (0-0-6) and Mick Channon (0-0-14).

 

Price

No strong trends on prices though there have been a few upsets in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners going off at 16/1 or bigger and but for Jacqueline Quest’s disqualification, the last 5 winners would have been priced 20/1, 66/1, 16/1, 25/1 & 9/1.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 7 & show a level stakes profit of 1.50 since 2004.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- American bred fillies do well

- Sired by a horse that finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 over 6F to 1M

- Run at least 3 times as a 2yo & won or placed on first career turf start

- Won last time out (posting an RPR of 105+)

- Having first run of 2014 or won a recognised 1000 Guineas Trial last time

- Previously won a listed or group race

- Won over 6F to 8F

- Course winner (or having first run at Newmarket)

- French-trained that finished in first 3 in Prix Morny, Imprudence and/or Robert Papin

- Won the Rockfel, Cheveley Park, Nell Gwynn and/or Leopardstown 2000G Trial

- Ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and/or Coolmore Fillies Sprint

- French trained or trained by Aidan O’Brien or Jim Bolger

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#2 2014-04-22 22:56:37

jimpy
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

took 16/1 about braclet , also backed her for the oaks.

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#3 2014-04-22 23:41:12

strong word
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

got a very good nod for my Tatiana at 8/1....

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#4 2014-04-23 10:40:13

deetee20
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Thought Tapestry was very unlucky in the Moyglare Stud gorup 1 at Curragh, if O'Brien's horses show they're hitting form over next few days then she could be the one

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#5 2014-04-27 09:36:12

cobb-douglas
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Kiyoshi is the forgotten horse in this for me,  stable hit the crossbar with Just The Judge last year and on 2 year old form, she's well matched with those at the top of the market.  Yard have been among the winners again after a quiet patch which is encouraging also.


Would love to see My Titania go close too but Kiyoshi looks value at this stage.

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#6 2014-04-27 20:45:21

mylo
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Is it not a touch ominous that Ladbrookes masquerading as Father Christmas have stubbornly stuck to their Top price 14/1 about Bracelet.


As long as 2 and 2 still make 4 it should be safe to cross this one off the list.



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#7 2014-04-28 19:53:43

punt
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

I still don't understand why rizeena is the favourite here.0
Her newmarket record is a put off for me.

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#8 2014-04-29 13:10:53

washy1987
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

punt wrote:


I still don't understand why rizeena is the favourite here.0
Her newmarket record is a put off for me.



Not sure I buy that after the fillies mile race. She travelled well but just found a top horse too good that day. And, unfortunately, as chriselliam isn't around now I think she is a worthy favourite.


I'm not sure who I like for an e/w punt.. None of them stand out.

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#9 2014-04-30 23:05:51

jocser
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Join Date: 2008-09-15
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

can anyone help me please.
is there was there not some stat about age in this race?
i dont mean 3yo but the dob of the horse?


found it. lookin to double somethin up with applebys in 2000 so plumped for Vorda

Last edited by jocser (2014-04-30 23:18:17)

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#10 2014-05-01 13:19:48

eoinmc
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Bad news: My Titania will miss the race after scoping "not entirely clean," trainer John Oxx

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#11 2014-05-01 13:54:11

pk75
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

eoinmc wrote:


Bad news: My Titania will miss the race after scoping "not entirely clean," trainer John Oxx
Gutted when i heard, really strongly fancied her and had decent bets on at 25/1 and 20/1 since last autumn, all that for it to be pulled out so late on:(

Last edited by pk75 (2014-05-01 13:54:30)

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#12 2014-05-01 14:54:00

c18989
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Think Sandiva is a working mans price at 16/1. Fahey sounded bullish there on RUK and I thought she showed a nice attitude in the Nell Gwyn having to run two races effectively from her draw. 4/1 for a place is more attractive than 7/2 the fav.



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#13 2014-05-01 20:07:51

punt
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

washy1987 wrote:


punt wrote:


I still don't understand why rizeena is the favourite here.0
Her newmarket record is a put off for me.



Not sure I buy that after the fillies mile race. She travelled well but just found a top horse too good that day. And, unfortunately, as chriselliam isn't around now I think she is a worthy favourite.


I'm not sure who I like for an e/w punt.. None of them stand out.


I've always thought highly of lucky kristale since her debut and have punted her in all runs since then.I already got her at 10/1 and i firmly believe she will get the distance with a patient ride.


I'm bullish with VORDA for an each way bet.She ran a genuine second on her comeback run last month behind xcellence who is entered in the coronation at ascot.
I wait for the final declaration before deciding my each way of the race.

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#14 2014-05-01 22:14:49

burgondjax
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Join Date: 2013-10-03
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

If you check on YouTube you will hear that Vorda's trainer said she was going to the Guineas after the Imprudence...also said that Vorda prefers to come with a run rather than lead from the front as she did in that race...I backed her

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#15 2014-05-01 22:43:42

rightjudgeiam
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

I'm a Lucky Kristale fan, she has electric an electric turn of foot and winning the Lowther under a penalty (never previously achieved) marked her as special

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#16 2014-05-02 21:10:28

ryanair
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Tapestry for me. 
Whatever beats her wins! 

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#17 2014-05-03 18:40:12

stu3105
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

deetee20 wrote:


Thought Tapestry was very unlucky in the Moyglare Stud gorup 1 at Curragh, if O'Brien's horses show they're hitting form over next few days then she could be the one
I liked her too, but record of Gallileo in this is surprisingly pooir and that is a huge put off for me!! Good luck though if sticking with her!

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#18 2014-05-03 18:46:12

stu3105
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

c18989 wrote:


Think Sandiva is a working mans price at 16/1. Fahey sounded bullish there on RUK and I thought she showed a nice attitude in the Nell Gwyn having to run two races effectively from her draw. 4/1 for a place is more attractive than 7/2 the fav.



5TH OF THE ODDS MATE AS NOT A HANDICAP ,BE MORE AROUND 3.1 a Place not 4/1!! Ilike her too though, Should never be that Price at all, If she was a O'brien or Stoute Trained Filly she'd be a lot lot Shorter, so  definitely Good Each -Way Value IMO!!

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#19 2014-05-03 19:24:42

hovis1956
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes

My Picks
Tapestry
unlucky not to finish closer when third past post behind Rizeena in Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh finishing with running left after being hampered:
 will stay 1m: remains open to improvement.

My E/W is
Sandiva
should stay 1m: acts on good to firm going.

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#20 2014-05-03 19:53:23

c18989
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

stu3105 wrote:


c18989 wrote:


Think Sandiva is a working mans price at 16/1. Fahey sounded bullish there on RUK and I thought she showed a nice attitude in the Nell Gwyn having to run two races effectively from her draw. 4/1 for a place is more attractive than 7/2 the fav.



5TH OF THE ODDS MATE AS NOT A HANDICAP ,BE MORE AROUND 3.1 a Place not 4/1!! Ilike her too though, Should never be that Price at all, If she was a O'brien or Stoute Trained Filly she'd be a lot lot Shorter, so  definitely Good Each -Way Value IMO!!
You are betting with the wrong firm my friend. Paddy Power going 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 on the race. 


Couple of nons now but on those terms Sandiva a cracking ew bet.

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#21 2014-05-03 20:13:58

stu3105
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

ryanair wrote:


Tapestry for me. 
Whatever beats her wins! 
That doesn't Narrow things down much at all Mate, Think she'll be in the First 6 just not For the Win, Bred by Galileo  in which unlike the 2,000 Guineas His Progeny have a very Poor Record!!    A Few i like here, The 2 i Like Each-Way at Fancy Prices are Joyeuse for the Late Henry Cecil's Mrs who Himself did actually Win this with Jaqueline's Quest in 2010 @66/1 but was then Disqualified, i'd say Joyeuse  Has Shown much more than That Filly had prior to Winning this plus the fact she looks to have a little more Class than that Filly had too, At Trading around the 25/1-33/1 Mark she Represents Great Each-Way Value and is more than capable of causing an upset, Compensation for the Cecil Yard awaits i think and this could be a bit of justice for there misfortune back in 2010, With James Doyle in the plate anything is possible [Riding out of his skin at present] and he'd of surely not have risked losing the Rides on Horses such as Rizeena Etc if he wasn't confident he'd have similar Quality of Colts or Filly's to Partner for Prince Khallid Abdullah, As far as 25/1 or 33/1 Shots go you could do a lot lot worse, I think this Filly could be a Major Player!!                                                                                                                                                My 2nd Each-Way Selection is Princess Noor for Roger Varian, Goes Well Fresh,could be nicely Drawn in Stall 16 in which she should be able to gain a decent position when leaving the Stalls and could get a nice tow in to the Race also, @33/1 she's Worth a Punt Each-Way for a Sire that has a respectable Record in this Race[ Holy Roman Emperor] Plus the Fact that Andrea Atzeni is very much a Jockey on the up and is also Riding consistently well at present and Trainer's Horses have started Season very well too, May not be good enough for a Winning perspective but after Today's Result anything is possible, I believe it's most definitely not just a 1 or 2 Horse Race, and there is undoubtedly 1 or 2 Big Potential improver's in the Field that could be well up to Troubling the Market Principals, I'm just hoping it may be 1 of mine!!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The 2 other's i also make a case for are more obvious but in Terms of Form ,but are still available a very decent Odds in which i find very hard to understand, These 2 are Called Vorda and Sandiva who are both very good Filly's also when on top of there Game!!  My TOP 4!! Vorda/Sandiva/Joyeuse/Princess Noora!!0   

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#22 2014-05-03 20:44:26

jocser
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Join Date: 2008-09-15
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

stu31 wrote:


c18989 wrote:


Think Sandiva is a working mans price at 16/1. Fahey sounded bullish there on RUK and I thought she showed a nice attitude in the Nell Gwyn having to run two races effectively from her draw. 4/1 for a place is more attractive than 7/2 the fav.



5TH OF THE ODDS MATE AS NOT A HANDICAP ,BE MORE AROUND 3.1 a Place not 4/1!! Ilike her too though, Should never be that Price at all, If she was a O'brien or Stoute Trained Filly she'd be a lot lot Shorter, so  definitely Good Each -Way Value IMO!!
 dont know any bukie not goin quarter first odds. I believe 16/1 @ quarter the odds pays 6/4 th place which really isnt that much better than evens.

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#23 2014-05-03 21:04:05

burgondjax
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Join Date: 2013-10-03
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Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

Lightning thunder to follow Night of Thunder? Stranger things have happened...

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#24 2014-05-03 21:06:14

mylo
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Posts: 1164

Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

jocser wrote:


stu31 wrote:


c18989 wrote:


Think Sandiva is a working mans price at 16/1. Fahey sounded bullish there on RUK and I thought she showed a nice attitude in the Nell Gwyn having to run two races effectively from her draw. 4/1 for a place is more attractive than 7/2 the fav.



5TH OF THE ODDS MATE AS NOT A HANDICAP ,BE MORE AROUND 3.1 a Place not 4/1!! Ilike her too though, Should never be that Price at all, If she was a O'brien or Stoute Trained Filly she'd be a lot lot Shorter, so  definitely Good Each -Way Value IMO!!
 dont know any bukie not goin quarter first odds. I believe 16/1 @ quarter the odds pays 6/4 th place which really isnt that much better than evens.


Now it's getting complicated - a tenner each way and a successful place would return 50

so 6/4 you money which is 50% more than evens.

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#25 2014-05-03 21:30:21

stu3105
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Posts: 978

Re: 1000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2014

c18989 wrote:


stu3105 wrote:


c18989 wrote:


Think Sandiva is a working mans price at 16/1. Fahey sounded bullish there on RUK and I thought she showed a nice attitude in the Nell Gwyn having to run two races effectively from her draw. 4/1 for a place is more attractive than 7/2 the fav.



5TH OF THE ODDS MATE AS NOT A HANDICAP ,BE MORE AROUND 3.1 a Place not 4/1!! Ilike her too though, Should never be that Price at all, If she was a O'brien or Stoute Trained Filly she'd be a lot lot Shorter, so  definitely Good Each -Way Value IMO!!
You are betting with the wrong firm my friend. Paddy Power going 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 on the race. 


Couple of nons now but on those terms Sandiva a cracking ew bet.
I LIKE JOYEUSE TOO @33/10 REALLY BELIEVE SHE'S THE REAL DARK HORSE HERE AND A BIG POTENTIAL IMPROVER AS A 3YR OLD OVER THIS 1 MILE DISTANCE, SHE HAS A GREAT PEDIGREE TOO AND COULD RANK VERY HIGHLY THROUGHOUT THIS SEASON IN ALL THE OTHER TOP 1 MILE EVENTS AT GLORIOUS GOODWOOD AND ROYAL ASCOT ETC!! 33/1 LOOKS WAY TOO BIG IMO!!    Majeyda is another that i'll be having a Few quid Each-Way on too, She's a well bred filly by Top American Sire Street Cry, and American breds have good record in this too, She's a Course and Distance Winner and has the Talented Mikael Barzalona on Board for an up and coming new Trainer who has already tasted success and Won some Big Races in such a short Training Career so far, Massively overpriced @66/1!! only 40/1 WITH BET VICTOR!!0 GOOD LUCK BUD!!

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