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#1 2014-02-10 02:03:04

racecaller
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SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 11th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 9 of the last 15 winners being trained in Ireland.

  

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-6

5yo: 4-13-88

6yo: 5-5-70

7yo: 1-1-20

8yo+: 0-1-4

No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 84.5% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.

 

Gender

Mares (0-1-6) have gained 1 place from 6 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed)

8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August

10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season

9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle

8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)

2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)

 

Other Races

Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Vautour): 131 (2-1-3)

Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 31 (1-1-2)

British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Ballyalton): 610U2 (1-1-5)

Champion Bumper winner (Briar Hill): 75341 (1-1-5)

Tolworth Hurdle winner (Royal Boy): 01 (1-0-2)

I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Wicklow Brave): 81 (1-0-2)

Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (The Liquidator): 501 (1-0-3)

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): 200373 (0-3-6)

Betfair Hurdle winner (Splash Of Ginge): 252 (0-2-3)

Jack Dee Here On 31st October Maiden Hurdle winner (Lac Fontana): 3 (0-1-1)

Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): U03 (0-1-3)

GL Events Owen Brown Novices' Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 0P2 (0-1-3)

Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 803 (0-1-3)

Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Irving): P925 (0-1-4)

Tony Jones 60th Birthday Bash Maiden Hurdle winner (Josses Hill): 40 (0-0-2)

Bookmakers Bar At Bewleys Hotel Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle winner (Clondaw Court): 85 (0-0-2)

William Hill - On Your Mobile Novices' Hurdle winner (Sea Lord): 090 (0-0-3)

bet365 Novices' Hurdle winner (Volnay De Thaix): 0065 (0-0-4)

Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle winner (Western Boy): 5000 (0-0-4)

Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Double Irish): 6940 (0-0-4)

Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (The Liquidator): 00409 (0-0-5)

3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Cash Out Your Saturday Multiples With Betfair last time, finishing 31

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 1F

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90

2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11

 

Trainers

Irish-trained horses (5-5-61) have taken 5 of the last 10 renewals.

Paul Nicholls (2-1-12) has trained the winner twice in past 10 years, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter, he’s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.

Willie Mullins (2-0-15) trained the winner in 2007 & 2013.

Philip Hobbs (1-1-8), Noel Meade (1-1-8) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner in past 5 years.

Nicky Henderson (0-7-16) has seen 7 of his 16 runners make the frame.

 

Price

Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 6 of the last 9 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50. You have to go back to 2004 for last winning favourite.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Won last time out in the past 55 days

- Posted an RPR of 137+ last time

- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts

- Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles

- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle

- Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat

- Finished in first 5 in 2013 Champion Bumper

- Deloitte Novice Hurdle winners do well

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland

 

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#2 2014-02-11 17:10:33

mrfleamans
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Wicklow Brave - one of the bets of the Festival. 10/1, cut from 12/1, in tandem with stablemate Vautour also being cut....will wait for NRNB.

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#3 2014-02-14 11:43:19

folski
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Interesting stat here:


Performance of french breds who had first start in either a bumper, hurdle or chase.
2004: N/A
2005: My Way De Solzen 15th @ 8/1
2006: Pablo Du Charmil UR @ 33/1
2007: Granit Jack 2nd @ 15/2
2007: Le Burf 12th @ 150/1
2008: N/A
2009: N/A
2010: Flat Out 5th @ 20/1
2010: Vino Griego 8th @ 50/1
2010: Mister Wall Street 17th @ 200/1
2011: Al Ferof 1st @ 10/1
2011: Spirit Son 2nd @ 5/1
2011: Sprinter Sacre 3rd @ 11/1
2012: Trifolium 3rd @ 15/2
2012: Montbazon 4th @ 15/2
2013: Un Atout 4th @ 6/1
2013: Pique Sous 6th @ 25/1
2013: Cheltenian 10th @ 25/1


Overall record of 1 - 4 - 15.
However if you take horses 16/1 or shorter you get 1 - 4 - 8.
Vautour, Val Seur Lido, West Wizard current horses that meet these requirements.

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#4 2014-02-16 13:43:00

crafty cockney
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

If this bad weather keeps up then Zamdy Man must have a big chance in this, only entry at Cheltenahm is for this and form stacks up well but soft ground seems a prerequisite

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#5 2014-02-19 17:41:06

burnsy
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

crafty cockney wrote:


If this bad weather keeps up then Zamdy Man must have a big chance in this, only entry at Cheltenahm is for this and form stacks up well but soft ground seems a prerequisite

Surprisingly has been taken out

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#6 2014-02-19 23:06:11

greatpilsudski
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

western boy  interests me as he as ran a close 2nd to the fav lto ,he actually managed to his head in front of him when challenging in the run -in but couldn't hold it to the line and and also the current 3rd fav in a bumper at tipperary,where he did well to finish 2nd after he didnt seem handle the sharp nature of the track that well.

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#7 2014-02-20 23:36:13

blackjack ketchum
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

JOSSES HILL is my fancy, his last run 2nd lto was impressive as he never jumped at all. He travelled smoothly through the race and was produced at the last to win it, the AP drive was too much for him. A strongly run race on better ground could bring the improvement in this horse to win. 12/1 looks a cracking ew bet. BJK 

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#8 2014-02-21 21:23:55

baazzaa
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

blackjack ketchum wrote:


JOSSES HILL is my fancy, his last run 2nd lto was impressive as he never jumped at all. He travelled smoothly through the race and was produced at the last to win it, the AP drive was too much for him. A strongly run race on better ground could bring the improvement in this horse to win. 12/1 looks a cracking ew bet. BJK

Geragthy seems to be sweet on him and yes
Good performance against a horse a year older .progressive
And dryer ground to suit ,.
I'll wait till the field cuts up a bit more but
I'll mark him down

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#9 2014-02-22 01:21:32

blackjack ketchum
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

baazzaa wrote:


blackjack ketchum wrote:


JOSSES HILL is my fancy, his last run 2nd lto was impressive as he never jumped at all. He travelled smoothly through the race and was produced at the last to win it, the AP drive was too much for him. A strongly run race on better ground could bring the improvement in this horse to win. 12/1 looks a cracking ew bet. BJK



Geragthy seems to be sweet on him and yes

Good performance against a horse a year older .progressive

And dryer ground to suit ,.

I'll wait till the field cuts up a bit more but

I'll mark him down
He's 12/1 now £50 on betfair now gets you £650. He will be 8-9/1 on the day an will be a Free bet. If he's 9/1 it will be £150 profit. Must back now. BJK 

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#10 2014-02-22 01:25:18

jimpy
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Very big move for Wicklow Brave today , cut by 11 firms!!!!

still 10/1 available with 3 major firms if you are quick, skybet, 888sports & sportingbet!!

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#11 2014-02-22 10:23:00

maxfield
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

blackjack ketchum wrote:


JOSSES HILL is my fancy, his last run 2nd lto was impressive as he never jumped at all. He travelled smoothly through the race and was produced at the last to win it, the AP drive was too much for him. A strongly run race on better ground could bring the improvement in this horse to win. 12/1 looks a cracking ew bet. BJK 

On @the races Matt Chapman asked Henderson who his best novice was and with a smile he said Josses Hill and told Matt that he under esitmates this horse.

 

We know Henderson has a good record in this race and has been so close with some very good horses in recent years and it could now be his time.

 

I've already backed Irving and Vautour to win - BUT I think that Josses Hill and My Tent or Yours is a great e/w double and works out about 3/1 to place - so I've had £2.50 e/w on that and if they both win it works out about - £180 - so it's worth a go in my eyes.

 

 

Last edited by maxfield (2014-02-22 10:23:18)

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#12 2014-02-22 23:49:30

mrfleamans
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

left-field suggestion at a big price....


Garde La Victoire is 16/1 for the County Hurdle and is 33/1 for this so looking at that is likely to take up the former engagement however i think he's good enough for this...


made a decent horse in Gone Too Far look pretty ordinary in a novice hurdle at Warwick...interestingly enough, Hobbs won this in 2010 with Menorah who also won a novice hurdle at Warwick.


Garde La Victoire then bumped into Ballyalton over C&D, running a screamer.


Didn't repeat that level of form when only 4th in the Tolworth, but didn't look at home in the ground and was too keen in the early stages.


Not backing yet just one to keep an eye on...has entries soon at Ludlow.

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#13 2014-02-23 09:58:26

baazzaa
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

blackjack ketchum wrote:


baazzaa wrote:


blackjack ketchum wrote:


JOSSES HILL is my fancy, his last run 2nd lto was impressive as he never jumped at all. He travelled smoothly through the race and was produced at the last to win it, the AP drive was too much for him. A strongly run race on better ground could bring the improvement in this horse to win. 12/1 looks a cracking ew bet. BJK




Geragthy seems to be sweet on him and yes


Good performance against a horse a year older .progressive


And dryer ground to suit ,.


I'll wait till the field cuts up a bit more but


I'll mark him down
He's 12/1 now £50 on betfair now gets you £650. He will be 8-9/1 on the day an will be a Free bet. If he's 9/1 it will be £150 profit. Must back now. BJK



I'll get on .cheers BJK

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#14 2014-02-23 16:20:20

mrfleamans
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Real Steel wins the Grade 2 hurdle at Naas....


«1 Wicklow Brave 6/4511-8 W P Mullins83146
R Walsh
 
Waited with in 4th until took closer order in to track leaders in 3rd after 2 out, travelled best to lead approaching last where awkward, soon asserted to draw clear, comfortably (op 11/8)
 
 
«2 Lieutenant Colonel 5/4F511-8 D T Hughes13078139
Bryan Cooper
 
Tracked leader in 2nd until led after 2 out, headed before last and no match for winner run-in (op 11/8)
 
 
«3 Real Steel (IRE) 9/2611-9 hPhilip Fenton73136
Brian O'Connell
 
Led until headed after 2 out, no extra approaching last, kept on one pace (op 13/2)

gone in again on WICKLOW BRAVE - 8/1 at Bet365 - NRNB - BOG.

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#15 2014-02-25 22:14:43

warofbeef
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

I have just spent the last 2 hours looking though this race.


This is my shortlist 
Wicklow Brave 
Irving 
Whichever horse J ferguson runs
Western Boy
Vautour


Starting with Irving he looks the one to beat and is my idea of the most likely winner.He has done what he has had to do so far and while it can be argued the form is weak he still beat what he had to easily and promises to improve plenty on better ground.The only thing is he hasn't really been in a proper fight yet and also has ran on fast flat tracks.He strikes me as a similar type to My tent or yours in that he will be travelling the best turning in but will he have the guts to get up the hill(especially if it is soft ground) He is now 3/1 11/4 i don't want to be spending my money on him to find that answer out.Anyone who is on each way i would say have a great bet in the race at the fancy prices.


Aside from Irving i think the rest of the Uk horses are going to struggle however I have highlighted John Ferguson as he has a few entered in the race who have won easily over hurdles and will improve a lot on better ground being former speedier flat winners.The ground they have been winning on over the past few months would not of suited them and whoever he fires at the race will improve a lot if the ground is better


The three from Ireland that interest me are Wicklow Brave, Western Boy and Vautour.


Starting with Vatour he strikes me as a similar sort to Champagne Fever in that his main asset seems to be stamina over having a short burst of speed.On better ground I think he might be vulnerable and if he is to win he will need soft ground in my opinion.Western boy has form with both Vautour and Wicklow Brave.On what we have seen so far he has a little bit to find with both of them but I think he will improve on better ground however so too will Wicklow brave and after all he beat Western Boy by 2 lengths in a bumper giving him 10 pounds.


I think Wickow Brave is the best of the Irish and assuming we are going to get better ground at Cheltenjham I am happy to back him each way against Irving who is going to be a tough nut to crack.I am struggling to see anything else improving past the standard these two novices have set and both have had plenty of jumping experience too.


Wicklow Brave (Each Way) 2pts  

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#16 2014-02-26 15:03:24

rxxixd
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

My Shortlist currently is sitting with 3.


 Wicklow Brave - Enough has been said by previous posters, I'll just include that I have an ew ticket at 8/1.


Josses Hill - I too also was impressed with the Tolworth run in which I backed him. I do feel there is improvement to come and reading through the preview evening posts it seems that BG is quite sweet on him too.I like the look of the 12/1 but need to make my decision  soon before this has gone.


Western Boy - Beaten 2L by Wicklow Brave in a NHF, beaten 3/4L by Vautour LTO. His maiden hurdle win in his previous race has thrown up 6 different winners. I can see worse 18/1 shots in the world. My 2nd pick.


Conclusion

As I'm willing to take on Irving, impressive as he has been the strength of his races does not look good enough to me. I will be taking on Vautour and Irving on with the following. 


Wicklow Brave ew 8/1 ante-post. I will also re-invest again at 7/1.

Western Boy ew 18/1 at Will Hill. Ties in nicely with Wicklow Brave and Vautour so the price is appealing me big time.


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#17 2014-02-26 21:15:20

mattchap
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Does anyone like Splash of Ginge for this.

Seriously progressive don't think we've seen the best of him

Betfair hurdle winners usually do well in this.

Will improve with better ground. Tough stayer- he is the type to do well in this.

Also has experience in big fields.

Wilde Blue Yonder would be my other pick,

Don't think the Irish challenge that strong.

Think Tullow Tank is a pig so Vautour/ Wicklow not that good

Don't like Irvine for it either

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#18 2014-02-26 21:24:13

mattchap
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

https://mobile.twitter.com/splashofginge?max_id=437403902338945024

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#19 2014-02-26 21:30:44

rxxixd
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

After Wilde Blue Yonder won his 1st outing this season I marked him down as 1 to follow and had him in my early shortlist. However after backing him the last 2 outings I would certainly not be touching him again with two F's next to his name. I know it should be 111 next to his name but they were errors and I don't want my ££ on a horse I can't trust.


Best of luck though matt as he is a tasty price.

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#20 2014-02-26 22:23:54

rightjudgeiam
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

mattchap wrote:


Does anyone like Splash of Ginge for this.


Seriously progressive don't think we've seen the best of him


Betfair hurdle winners usually do well in this.


Will improve with better ground. Tough stayer- he is the type to do well in this.


Also has experience in big fields.


Wilde Blue Yonder would be my other pick,


Don't think the Irish challenge that strong.


Think Tullow Tank is a pig so Vautour/ Wicklow not that good


Don't like Irvine for it either


well if you pay attention to the trends, preparation in a handicap is a virtual guarantee of defeat in the Supreme


don't know how you can draw a conclusion about Wicklow Brave from TTT, there's very little to link the two... WB beat Western Boy in a bumper, Vautour beat him in a hurdle then beat TTT


very strange post imo

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#21 2014-02-26 22:38:46

mattchap
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Sorry I shouldn't of included Wicklow brave.

I haven't seen much of him, but can't fault his form.

Looks to have a good chance.

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#22 2014-02-26 22:40:06

mrfleamans
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

My Tent didn't come off the bridle off 149 to win the Betfair, Splash of Ginge was driven right out to win the same race off 134 with a very good 7lbs claimer onboard - MTOY couldn't win last year's Supreme - that renewal is definitely better than this years, but it's not 25lbs worse which I think it will have to be for Splash Of Ginge to win.

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#23 2014-02-26 22:50:39

mattchap
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Yeah your probably right but it was a good betfair. The horse will also improve for better ground.

Also I think you can use the 6 length defeat by Irvine where he didn't jump one of the hurdles as piece of form that gives him a chance. He's definately worth the 50-1 I have on him anyway. Which I put up on Chelt thread.

The horse is progressive and who's to say he had not improved since the Betfair

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#24 2014-02-27 09:33:49

baazzaa
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

I'm in finding it hard to back josses hill, I just think henderson has hit
The post a few times latley with horses they have been real sweet on
Darlan, sprinter and spirit son ,

Such a tough race to pick the winner , not sure if there is anything in their
That could spring a shock
Fahys said western boy is a bit light so I wonder
If he's a bit immature for this .
Wicklow brace seems to be the pick for most latley .

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#25 2014-02-27 14:05:43

pidgiano
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Re: SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2014

Doesn't look the best renewal, best leave it to IRVING,
looked a potential superstar last time, forget about rifling through the trends etc yawn yawn, IRVING wins use the study time saved to crack some of the handicaps.

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